COVID-19 Links, facts and discussion. Politics and hyperbole welcome.

[onpoint]

The U.S. Now Leads the World in Confirmed Coronavirus Cases (Published 2020)

Following a series of missteps, the nation is now the epicenter of the pandemic.

www.nytimes.com

Missteps.
Montana.................

Small population - getting to be an impressive curve.

 

[ImBillT]

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Cliff notes:

Why testing matters, promises from a week ago broken, why there is good reason to think there are political motivations at play for failing at granting emergency authorization in regards to testing. All that said, you cannot hide death, time in the ICU, and hospitalizations, and testing would inform rates. We have to get the denominator to understand the type of virus we are up against. New York will likely be overrun soon.

We’ve now tested more people than any country on earth...


We don’t need to “know the denominator” to know what kind of virus we’re up against. First of all, that number is always changing. Secondly, no one uses testing to determine P&I deaths. They use the increase above baseline weekly mortality. Currently no country on earth is confirmed to be above normal flu season spikes.

 

[Nameless Range]

We’ve now tested more people than any country on earth...


We don’t need to “know the denominator” to know what kind of virus we’re up against. First of all, that number is always changing. Secondly, no one uses testing to determine P&I deaths. They use the increase above baseline weekly mortality. Currently no country on earth is confirmed to be above normal flu season spikes.

I disagree, for reasons I won’t rehash.

 

[BuzzH]

I guess now's the time for that foam finger:

 

[El Jason]

Maybe I missed it. Has China come out and said "hey, in hindsight this was really no big deal?"

 

[Hunting Wife]

We’ve now tested more people than any country on earth...


We don’t need to “know the denominator” to know what kind of virus we’re up against. First of all, that number is always changing. Secondly, no one uses testing to determine P&I deaths. They use the increase above baseline weekly mortality. Currently no country on earth is confirmed to be above normal flu season spikes.

False. Where did you go to med school?

 

[ImBillT]

I disagree, for reasons I won’t rehash.

Then you don’t understand the issue.

For others, the reason that the elevation in all cause death matters, rather than how many people this particular virus killed, is because there is a segment of the population that is going to die from the next cold/flu they get. It’s not important whether it’s covid-19, any other of the many corona viruses, H1N1, etc. Every year the dominant flu strain changes, and if we tested for specific colds, we would see the dominant cold strains change. Just because this one is the one, doesn’t make the threat we face any different than other bad cold/flu seasons. The only way the threat from this one is greater, is if the spike in all cause deaths is significantly higher.

 

[ImBillT]

Maybe I missed it. Has China come out and said "hey, in hindsight this was really no big deal?"

Why would they? If they push the panic a little longer they can buy the world’s markets while the US sits around taking unemployment checks for four months.

 

[ImBillT]

False. Where did you go to med school?

You first.

 

[BuzzH]

Why would they? If they push the panic a little longer they can buy the world’s markets while the US sits around taking unemployment checks for four months.

When you find yourself in a hole...quit digging.

 

[Hunting Wife]

You first.

I’m not the one second guessing the ones who did.

 

[El Jason]

Why would they? If they push the panic a little longer they can buy the world’s markets while the US sits around taking unemployment checks for four months.

SMFH.

 

[ImBillT]

False. Where did you go to med school?

Mortality burden of the 1918–1919 influenza pandemic in Europe - PMC

Background  The origin and estimated death toll of the 1918–1919 epidemic are still debated. Europe, one of the candidate sites for pandemic emergence, has detailed pandemic mortality information. Objective  To determine the mortality impact of the ...

www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/876005/Weekly_all_cause_mortality_surveillance_week_13_2020_report.pdf

Perhaps you should do some review. Both links contain information regarding while the peaks and valleys of the weekly all cause deaths are important.

 

[ImBillT]

I’m not the one second guessing the ones who did.

So neither of us went to med school.

I choose to think for myself, and seek data and proof.

You are welcome to listen to anyone you would like, but you should ask questions and never take something someone tells as absolute proof.

 

[BuzzH]

Mortality burden of the 1918–1919 influenza pandemic in Europe - PMC

Background  The origin and estimated death toll of the 1918–1919 epidemic are still debated. Europe, one of the candidate sites for pandemic emergence, has detailed pandemic mortality information. Objective  To determine the mortality impact of the ...

www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/876005/Weekly_all_cause_mortality_surveillance_week_13_2020_report.pdf

Perhaps you should do some review.

Perhaps if its no big deal...catch a flight to NYC and lick some doorknobs.

 

[ImBillT]

Perhaps if its no big deal...catch a flight to NYC and lick some doorknobs.

I’ve repeatedly claimed that I don’t know for sure how bad this is or isn’t. I’ve repeatedly claimed that I’m being careful, as we all should. Pointing out that we should be asking for actual data rather than anecdotes isn’t the same as denying it. We should all want factual data before we burn the world down around us.


I’ve also stated that if someone could show data proving that this was as terrible as they are pushing that I would accept it. If someone does, I might not leave my house for six months.

 

[ImBillT]

I’m not the one second guessing the ones who did.

I’m also curious. How flooded is that floor full of brain and spinal injuries they cleared out for the covid-19 cases? If it’s full, it’s a darn good thing they did it.

I hope all the injured people that were actually at the hospital with injuries received good medical care.

 

[Trial153]

We’ve now tested more people than any country on earth...


We don’t need to “know the denominator” to know what kind of virus we’re up against. First of all, that number is always changing. Secondly, no one uses testing to determine P&I deaths. They use the increase above baseline weekly mortality. Currently no country on earth is confirmed to be above normal flu season spikes.

Yes this is totally anecdotal. In the 12 years i been doing this job in NY

Since I can’t find the data I want for Italy, I’ll settle for the U.K. they are at 9 deaths per million right now. We are at 2/M. They aren’t nearly as far along in this as Italy, but they are arguably at least a few days farther down the path than we are. Their normal low for weekly all cause deaths is around 8000. The spike they experienced in the 2017/18 flu season was about 13,000/week. For this to be considered worse than the 2017/18 flu season the U.K. would have to get above 715/day. 716 wouldn’t make me think this was significantly worse than a bad flu season. 1000 might. Particularly if it lasted many weeks. Currently, I do not see a country that has provably experienced more deaths than in bad flu years. If someone can actually post a factual number that proves the opposite, I’ll accept it.

If someone can post that same data for NY I’d accept that as well.

Assuming the valleys are 12mo apart, and the flue season is usually 4-5, I would estimate that the peak period in 2017/18 lasted a 3-6 weeks. The actual dates are probably in the same document. So 715/day in the U.K. for a month would not be cause for alarm.

Italy has 96% the population of the U.K., so the same number for Italy would be 4795 deaths/week above the baseline.

This is totally anecdotal.

In the 12 years I've been doing this job in New York during flu season or any time of the year for that matter I have never onced witnessed a level one facility turning their cardiac critical care unit into a respiratory unit for flu patients.
I have also never had not one but but two diffent level 1 trauma centers turn down my patient from air transport to their facility because they didnt have ICU capacity. We transported the PT to a local level 3 facility instead.

I witnessed both those things this week. Maybe it's just a coincidence In light of the events of happening

 

[El Jason]

Yes this is totally anecdotal. In the 12 years i been doing this job in NY

This is totally anecdotal.

In the 12 years I've been doing this job in New York during flu season or any time of the year for that matter I have never onced witnessed a level one facility turning their cardiac critical care unit into a respiratory unit for flu patients.
I have also never had not one but but two diffent level 1 trauma centers turn down my patient from air transport to their facility because they didnt have ICU capacity. We transported the PT to a local level 3 facility instead.

I witnessed both those things this week. Maybe it's just a coincidence In light of the events of happening

It's all part of the ploy by China to purchase us while our country is shut down.

 

[Hunting Wife]

Mortality burden of the 1918–1919 influenza pandemic in Europe - PMC

Background  The origin and estimated death toll of the 1918–1919 epidemic are still debated. Europe, one of the candidate sites for pandemic emergence, has detailed pandemic mortality information. Objective  To determine the mortality impact of the ...

www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/876005/Weekly_all_cause_mortality_surveillance_week_13_2020_report.pdf

Perhaps you should do some review.

There’s review, then there’s comprehension. I and many others who do have some background have tried explaining where you’re making basic errors in interpretation, comparisons and assumptions, to no avail. At this point, doing so again would be pointless.

Officially done.