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Covid-19 Data, Models, References - NO DISCUSSION

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LWC55

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Well Randy11 started a good thread that like many others, got a little wild towards the end and ended up locked. I admit that I played a part in its demise. I felt that the thread was very valuable (for the most part) but it got so long with all the comments, that it was getting hard to follow. My goal is to have a place to glean the positive from that thread without all of the negative. So I am starting a thread to try and accomplish that. I will be posting several forecast models from a source I and several others believe in (I know some don't) that are updated daily. They are not perfect and can change when new data is received. If there is some new data that comes in and makes huge change in a model, I will try and show an updated model as quick as I can. The model creator is Dr. Douglas G Frank, a mathematician from Ohio. Feel free to go and follow him on FB. He welcomes criticism, answers many questions, and there is much discussion daily.

I would like this thread to be much like Randy11's, just without the discussion that will eventually get it locked. I would like for folks to post any images or links to Covid models, studies, news articles etc... that they feel are valuable. The more the merrier. I think this will accomplish a couple of things. It will keep the thread shorter and easier to navigate and it should keep the thread from getting locked out. Thanks

PS: Send me a message if there is state model that you would like to see and I'll try and get that added.
 
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The fact that none of his models go past the 1st of May, is a glaring indication that he has no idea what he is talking about....He also says in his biography that he does mathematical modeling for fun, and has zero background in epidemiology. There is a reason why this is all being posted open source....

Also, I know this wasn't the intent of your thread, but putting out information like this isn't helping. I posted it in the other thread, but if you want to read about actual scientifically based modeling that is being used by the pros, google the CHIME model.
 
I kindly asked for no discussion on this thread. I want everyone to post up any other models or data, news stories, etc... Conflicting or otherwise. I'm not trying to hide anything here. Trying to have a place where the most up to date information can be shared with everyone.
 
dispensationalpublishing.com

COVID-19 Scientific Prediction Model (March 26) – Dispensational Publishing

Note: this page is being updated continuously throughout the day. Check back soon for additional states and countries. Publisher’s Note: On March 23 we began posting a series of charts by Dr. Douglas G. Frank. We continue that series today, as we will each day until the model proves...
dispensationalpublishing.com dispensationalpublishing.com

Dr. Frank received a B.A. in Chemistry from Westmont College in Santa Barbara, California. He qualified for his doctorate at the University of California, Santa Barbara before transferring to the University of Cincinnati in 1986 as part of the Ohio Eminent Scholar program. In 1990, he received a Ph.D. in Surface Analytical Chemistry. After graduating, he formed “ADAM Instrument Company, Inc.,” named for the new surface analysis technique he discovered during his graduate studies. The “ADAM” technique brought him international acclaim, and his work was featured in several scientific books and international journals, including cover articles in Science and Naturwissenschaften. He has over 50 scientific publications, and is internationally regarded as an expert in Auger spectroscopy.

Dr. Frank currently serves as the Math and Science Chair at the Schilling School for Gifted Children in Cincinnati, OH. He is also the President of Precision Analytical Instruments.
 
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LWC55 said:
I kindly asked for no discussion on this thread.
Click to expand...
First of all, I have never seen this ask work on Hunttalk. Second, on a topic of significant real world importance (unlike opinions about whether a 6.5manbun will kill elk) it is not OK to let scientifically suspect info be posted without comment, correction or counter-view -- for every active poster on Hunttalk there are dozens of silent readers and hundreds of google search drop-ins who may assume that incorrect info is somehow accurate. Third, science is defined by "peer review" -- comment, critique and criticism is how it works -- if Hunttalk is the wrong venue for such posts (which is probably the case) then just stop the posts altogether and move the discussion to a more appropriate web location. Fifth, the odds that a random "math hobbyist" has solved this puzzle over the tens of thousands of trained professionals is almost zero -- if you believe otherwise I have a "hobbyist real estate agent" who has a bridge in NY to sell you. Sixth, there are over a million doctors in the US and over 5,000 employed epidimiologists (and now multiply that globally) - we should all fully expect hundreds of conflicting opinions in the early months of a pandemic -- anyone who thinks they have found the one source of truth on this topic should also visit my "hobbyist real estate agent".
 
I see this link is posted above.

www.worldometers.info

United States COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

United States Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.
www.worldometers.info www.worldometers.info

Here is what I'm watching most closely, deaths per day. While it is a trailing indicator, it is the only one where we have much certainty as to the status of the pandemic. When you see the number per day falling with some consistency, the spread has been slowed down. Of course, deaths might surge from hospital overload,,, or decline with an effective treatment.
 
Instead of some trying to get this thread derailed. Please use that time to go find ANY OTHER UP TO DATE MODELS OR STUDIES and post for others to see. I've been looking everyday for 2 weeks and Dr. Frank is the best I have found to date. If Dr. Frank's models are off we will know in a couple of days. I thought internet in general and even hunttalk were for sharing the most up to date information. Covid-19 is causing very serious issues all around the globe. Please share the most up to date information you can find.
Please don't torpedo this thread.
 
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The best sources: cdc, mayo, john hopkins, who, worldometer, NYT, WSJ have all been posted many times, no reason to re-post them every 5 hours. I suggest the same is true for your favorite "hobbyist mathematician". If people find them useful they can bookmark them and check whenever they want. Repeatedly spamming the daily updates from one source (any source) is not news and isn't worth the bandwidth BigFin is paying for in my opinion.
 
1584987688548-png.132286


So Italy just blew by the previous new deaths by a pretty large margin with 913 deaths reported today getting them to 9,134 total.

New cases has been over 4,000 that is on that graph pretty much every day for the last week although the graph never had them making it that high. Todays new cases were 5,909 down from 6,203 yesterday.

What is his new graph showing?
 
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