What the what! Could the experts have been wrong? Cue the dramatic music
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This is his most recent (this morning) US Projection. It includes US + NY. NY numbers are so different from other state's numbers that he is looking at them separately. This has been previously discussed and nothing is being hidden. Dr. Frank has been trying to decide how to most accurately model outlier, NY and the rest of the US at the same time. I'll post his model discussion below for everyone to read.
Covid-19 "USA Deaths Tracking with NY"
This graph is really revealing. And more importantly, it confirms an hypothesis we had a couple days ago.
I have changed nothing about any of the models. Think of this as merely "accounting." This is the first time I have ever looked at this plot, because I just made it. I've been stewing over the right way to do this for a couple days, and it was the first thought on my mind when I woke up. (The power of the subconscious mind...)
Let me walk you through it. I usually don't like putting so many traces on a single graph for public viewing. It scares people off. But it is worth it, trust me. Take your time, digest each plot. Look at the scale for it, and don't move on until you get it intuitively.
Let's start with the axes. The left vertical axis is for all "Deaths/day" curves, the right vertical axis is for the two "sigmoids," or total death curves that finish into it. (Near 1400 and 2900.)
Let's start with the red dashed plot with the red dots, USA Reported deaths per day. The scale for this is in red, on the left. It is real data, so it is noisy. But it is reality. (Always start with the DATA!!)
The pink shaded line that is tracking the red-dots-curve is the sum of my original projection for the whole USA (deaths/day) plus the model predictions for NY (deaths/day). This "sum of models" is closely tracking what we are **actually** observing. (It is the sum of the light gray and blue peaks.)
Next, the solid dark gray line is my original model death tally estimate for the whole country (finishing on the right, near 1400 total death tally). The light gray peak is the cases/day for that model (use left scale).
The light blue curve is the peak corresponding to the deaths/day predicted by our NY model.
When you add the original model to the NY model, you get the dark red plot, finishing just under 3,000 total deaths.
The dark red dots and dashed curve is the total reported death tally for the entire US (actual data). Note the "inflection point" in the curve corresponding to when the NY death peak starts growing and the trace begins diverging from my earlier estimate. (This is exactly what a "secondary infection looks like in other countries, eg Italy.)
I am not saying NY is a secondary infection. I'm saying, when you consider it separately *and* together, this approach tells you a lot about what is going on in our country.
I will update this graph every day for a while. I might simplify it too... but there is so much good information in here, I don't want to leave anything out. I will think on it.
What I love about this, is that we hypothesized a couple of days ago that this way of thinking about the country would match the data... AND IT DOES. An a priori hypothesis confirmed, making us more confident in our models. This is the scientific method.
How did you find out about this gentleman? Also do you know anything of his track record (for lack of a better term). Although I am work in natural resources my understanding of modeling is woefully thin. I have been trying to immerse myself with this type of information. Thanks for getting me started.
On a side note it seems that Imperial college is revising guidance from their early model.
The red dots are the actual US deaths. Like I said before. I'll post the expert models I have confidence in. You do the same and we will see which ones are closer. I'll just note that to date I haven't seen any expert numbers, models, predictions from you. But if you find better info or predictions, I wish you would share them.I know you are infatuated with this guy.
If he was being taken seriously, some network would be trumpeting (hey an unintended pun) him,, certainly Fox News would. He has yesterday's deaths wrong, they were north of 200, not under. His forecast for maximum deaths per day, by the graph you linked is 175ish. He would be the only guy out there thinking deaths per day are about to decline.
His forecast of total deaths is wrong by orders of magnitude. The unknown is how many orders of magnitude he is wrong. I hope it is by only one order of magnitude.
The red dots are the actual US deaths. Like I said before. I'll post the expert models I have confidence in. You do the same and we will see which ones are closer. I'll just note that to date I haven't seen any expert numbers, models, predictions from you. But if you find better info or predictions, I wish you would share them.
That's a million dollar wild card, isn't it?If there were large numbers of unconfirmed cases, the virus will bang up against herd immunity more quickly.
I knew the red dots were the actual deaths reported for a day. His graph shows deaths declining yesterday. They increased to the 250ish range. His model shows that there would not be a single day with deaths over 200. The last two days and likely today, exceed that number.
I am looking at the raw data for our country, mostly. My brother is onto modeling this pandemic. He has a PHD in physical chemistry. He can crunch numbers with the best of them. He thinks it looks a lot worse than the guy you keep posting. What my brother would really like to know is what percentage of actual cases are captured by the confirmed test. As he told me this morning, it would be great news if we only KNEW about a small number of the actual cases. If there were large numbers of unconfirmed cases, the virus will bang up against herd immunity more quickly.
It took 9 days in isolation to get my niece's test results back, that luckily came back negative....but they are keeping her in isolation and retesting her because she might have gotten a false negative since she is actually getting physically worse by the day. But, come on....9 friggin days for results?