COVID-19 Links, facts and discussion. Politics and hyperbole welcome.

[hossblur]

Topic tilting...

Back on -



Interesting curve...

I'll bet $100 in a week or 2 of "no new cases" there will be another outbreak, but from "outside travelers".

Mist likely from the US.

Either the herd immunity in Wuhan is astronomical(proving their actual cases is BS) or this is.

 

[VikingsGuy]

I'll bet $100 in a week or 2 of "no new cases" there will be another outbreak, but from "outside travelers".

Mist likely from the US.

Either the herd immunity in Wuhan is astronomical(proving their actual cases is BS) or this is.

I find it hard to buy "no new cases" - is there any active virus on the planet that literally has zero new cases? There may be a huge down swing which would be great, but zero? Seems like Kim Jong golfing a perfect round of 18. A little communist over statement?

And I agree that we all need to watch for a "bounce" when China/S. Korea/Italy drop their quarantines. Hopefully not, but seems likely.

 

[88man]

I apologize that I brought up numbers that do not match the worldwide reaction to this virus. China's highest reported number of deaths from Corona is 150 in one day. With an average of 27,000 that doesn't seem super significant. 90%+ folks are saying how bad this is. I'm just trying to provide some under reported data to show some prospective, which is not guessing.

150 a day 1.4Billion Population

 

[LWC55]

I find it hard to buy "no new cases" - is there any active virus on the planet that literally has zero new cases? There may be a huge down swing which would be great, but zero? Seems like Kim Jong golfing a perfect round of 18. A little communist over statement?

And I agree that we all need to watch for a "bounce" when China/S. Korea/Italy drop their quarantines. Hopefully not, but seems likely.

I would think it is 99.9999% likely there will be a bounce. The question will be how high and what is acceptable. That is my issue with the reaction to this. We don't know what is acceptable. For seasonal flu US society has determined for whatever reason that anywhere from 20,000 to 60,000 deaths is acceptable and we don't change or cancel anything. What number would the CDC and society be satisfied with when this thing is all said and done? If we can figure that, then we can get a plan together and take steps to reach that goal. In the meantime we hunker down and wait for more accurate data to come in.

 

[onpoint]

Lotsa' great links, point/counterpoint, "facts", etc from the www. discussion set.
Really.
Are guys - and the single digit # of women on here - also being part of "government for the people, by the people"? Inundating any government official possible with insistence to ramp up federal aid to those are on the front line of this? In Montana - Daines, Tester, Gianforte. In your state, fill in the blank......... Hell, in MT, MFWP is for th emost part working just like usual. Montanans - contact Bullocks office.
A retired fisheries biologist friend's (75 years old, A fib, Diabetes, etc and more than a little nervous & who has more than a bit part in the whole public land {water} resource thing this forum was about) wife went to her Bozeman dr. yesterday. The doctor told her, in no uncertain terms, that her local medical community does not have the resources for what is likely coming. Sound familiar to any other of similar posts? Politicians are the ones who ARE the link to improve this in any way possible.
If this is real and serious, is this the best the powers that be can do?
If it's serious enough to hang a (ridiculous) jury rigged plastic curtain between MFWP Regional Office front desk staff and license buyers - is it not serious enough to shut down the office. Especially when LICENSES ARE AVAILABLE ON LINE?
Just one example of government bungling at any and all levels - right on up to and from the top..............

 

[Sytes]

I find it hard to buy "no new cases" - is there any active virus on the planet that literally has zero new cases? There may be a huge down swing which would be great, but zero? Seems like Kim Jong golfing a perfect round of 18. A little communist over statement?

And I agree that we all need to watch for a "bounce" when China/S. Korea/Italy drop their quarantines. Hopefully not, but seems likely.

Thought I added the link though apparently not.

I don't recall the link for the exact wording used in my original post however, here is an AP NEWS report, same topic:

Italy reached the bleak milestone the same day that Wuhan, the Chinese city where the coronavirus first emerged three months ago, recorded no new infections, a sign that the communist country’s draconian lockdowns were effective in containing the scourge.

Coronavirus extends across West, Californians must stay home

ROME (AP) — Italy's deaths from the coronavirus pandemic eclipsed China’s on Thursday as the scourge extended its march across the West, where the United States and other countries increasingly enlisted the military to prepare for an onslaught of patients and California's governor ordered people in

apnews.com

 

[ImBillT]

I find it hard to buy "no new cases" - is there any active virus on the planet that literally has zero new cases? There may be a huge down swing which would be great, but zero? Seems like Kim Jong golfing a perfect round of 18. A little communist over statement?

And I agree that we all need to watch for a "bounce" when China/S. Korea/Italy drop their quarantines. Hopefully not, but seems likely.

You can’t say the word “communist”. That’s political.

 

[VikingsGuy]

Thought I added the link though apparently not.

I don't recall the link for the exact wording used in my original post however, here is an AP NEWS report, same topic:

I get it, I am just not buying "china reported". China also "reported" in early Jan. I am not anti-china or blame china, I am just saying that if a number sounds too good to be true that it might be.

 

[BigHornRam]

Interesting article about Corona Viruses and their research in China.

How China’s “Bat Woman” Hunted Down Viruses from SARS to the New Coronavirus

Wuhan-based virologist Shi Zhengli has identified dozens of deadly SARS-like viruses in bat caves, and she warns there are more out there

www.scientificamerican.com

https://www.scientificamerican.com/...wn-viruses-from-sars-to-the-new-coronavirus1/

Interesting read, but left me with the same impression I get after watching a typically biased 60 Minutes segment.

 

[Gr8bawana]

The purpose of the skepticism would be to prevent ourselves from being tricked by the Chinese into testing and quarantining for the common cold while they buy our stock market dip and own us.

Wuhan had a major biological facility of some kind nearby. China shipped people all over the world after they new about the virus. China announced it and quarantined Wuhan at a very convenient time for them to shut down their economy with less damage that other times. China is getting back up and running.

This is really bad either way. Either a bunch of people are about to get really sick, or we’ve just destroyed our economy over nothing. We should be very careful about both.

I’m not bent on proving that this is a hoax. I’m trying to figure out if it is or isn’t.

If you're still trying to figure out if it's a hoax, you never will. Perhaps you should ask the families of those who died of the hoax. I feel sorry for you and your family.

 

[Nameless Range]

Real good pile of resources here

Coronalinks 3/19/20

As before, feel free to treat this as an open thread for all coronavirus-related issues. Everything here is speculative and not intended as medical advice. How many real cases? As of today, the US …

slatestarcodex.com

 

[onpoint]

Minutes ago on the dreaded MSNBC, Virologist Joseph Fair, believes a 14 day nationwide lock-down of all non-essential services is warranted. He stated it's evident that the "voluntary social distancing" has not been and is not effective in America - as all or most of us have witnessed.
I don't have a link to the discussion as it just took place.
Unless this man is a partisan hack, political operative, or some other devious plant to subvert the truth............
Is the message "wrong" because it came from a partisan type news source?
Post up conflicting subject expert(s) positions.........
Luck to all.
Out.

 

[LWC55]

Minutes ago on the dreaded MSNBC, Virologist Joseph Fair, believes a 14 day nationwide lock-down of all non-essential services is warranted. He stated it's evident that the "voluntary social distancing" has not been and is not effective in America - as all or most of us have witnessed.
I don't have a link to the discussion as it just took place.
Unless this man is a partisan hack, political operative, or some other devious plant to subvert the truth............
Is the message "wrong" because it came from a partisan type news source?
Post up conflicting subject expert(s) positions.........
Luck to all.
Out.

Warranted for what? Did he state his goal? Keep American deaths under 1,000 or 10,000? Keep reported cases under 100,000. Keep hospitalized cases under 20,000? Or just in general it is warranted to slow the spread?

 

[406dn]

It is interesting that with the ability to search for information being nearly without limit, people keep expecting others to do it for them.

If you want to know what Joseph Fair is all about, start looking into it. I just spent several minutes reading about him. Anyone else can do the same.

 

[westbranch]

Thought this was interesting - 53 nurse anesthetists laid off at one medical practice in Boise:

https://www.idahostatesman.com/news/coronavirus/article241285596.html

Expecting some mortgage relief for people that have lost income:

U.S. Orders Up To A Yearlong Break On Mortgage Payments

The federal government is telling lenders to lower or suspend mortgage payments for up to 12 months for homeowners who have lost income due to the coronavirus outbreak.

www.npr.org

 

[LWC55]

It is interesting that with the ability to search for information being nearly without limit, people keep expecting others to do it for them.

If you want to know what Joseph Fair is all about, start looking into it. I just spent several minutes reading about him. Anyone else can do the same.

Because someone other than me listened to him speak just minutes ago. I did not hear him. I was hoping he or some other expert have stated their goals or expectations and not just their suggested mandates. Any experts have an opinion on best case expectations in next couple months with the steps we are taking? I have been seeing a lot of worst case.

 

[SAJ-99]

Topic tilting...

Back on -



Interesting curve...

But still no traffic congestion in a city of 11m. I tend to be in the camp of trusting data from China because it is better than nothing, but something doesn't square here. I guess they can claim to have stopped the spread, but still not opened a major city. Latest estimate I saw was China's GDP will drop over 30% in Q1. So you know they have good reason to start back up again.

https://www.tomtom.com/en_gb/traffic-index/wuhan-traffic

 

[406dn]

Because someone other than me listened to him speak just minutes ago. I did not hear him. I was hoping he or some other expert have stated their goals or expectations and not just their suggested mandates. Any experts have an opinion on best case expectations in next couple months with the steps we are taking? I have been seeing a lot of worst case.

This LITERALLY took me ten seconds to find. Do your own homework.

Fair: 'It still spreads through direct cough'

Dr. Joseph Fair explains how COVID-19 is spread, “It still spreads through direct cough … and liquid droplets that come out of your mouth … and touching

www.msnbc.com

 

[grizzly_]

... and Fauci said to not even worry about data because it will take weeks or longer to know if our actions worked. And maybe not until it's over will we get an idea of what could've been.

The bottom line is the testing variability is a major contributor to false information. I can guarantee zero new cases in USA tomorrow if we quit testing, and it only stands to reason increased testing will result in increased positives until we have testing stability and infection declines. Which I think we can all agree hasn't happened.

::::read in Vince Lombardi voice:::: We can't guess the ending when the game may be just getting started so quit checking the score board and focus on what we CAN control.

 

[LWC55]

This LITERALLY took me ten seconds to find. Do your own homework.

Fair: 'It still spreads through direct cough'

Dr. Joseph Fair explains how COVID-19 is spread, “It still spreads through direct cough … and liquid droplets that come out of your mouth … and touching

www.msnbc.com

Thanks for the info, but it has nothing to do with the original post from onpoint and the quote he heard. But I did spend 2 minutes to learn that corona spreads through vapor droplets when you cough...so there's that