VikingsGuy
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Yup. Tracking progression in Italy is much more useful at this point.
COVID-19 Links, facts and discussion. Politics and hyperbole welcome.
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yes we will get more reliable numbers from Europe, more so then even Singapore and Korea. The European response time line is more in tune with its citizens would except in response to containment. You wouldn’t see the same level of acceptance that took place in Singapore for example.
As for China. I wouldnt be surprised if they had a state sponsored multiplier for numbers, for example .25, this way they can then spin there sucesses in containment to their own people and the rest of the world.
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ImBillT
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For all the bad that we hear about our healthcare system, I found it interesting to see a graph showing that we had the most ICU beds per capita of anywhere in the world, and that it was ten times as many as the UK. Still not enough to meet demand if we get as bad as Italy.
Southern Elk
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Rough times for sure. My wife is a healthcare provider and will be exposed to this. Her mother is high risk. My parents are older and high risk. My grandmother is elderly and in an assisted living home that is locked down and my mom can’t even visit. Added to all of that, we are 2000 miles away from all of our family and who knows when we will get to see them again.
Everyone stay safe out there. I’m praying that things don’t get as bad as some people predict.
Everyone stay safe out there. I’m praying that things don’t get as bad as some people predict.
One thing that we are doing is reaching out to a elderly couple who are our neighbors and volunteering to get any supplies or needs so they do not have to go out and risk exposure given the propensity and the severity for the virus to target the elderly.
lets not loose sight of our own humanity.
nypost.com
British man had minutes to say goodbye to coronavirus-stricken dad
A British man had just 15 minutes to say his final goodbyes to his coronavirus-stricken father, according to a report.
nypost.com
VikingsGuy
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Some early stage treatment studies:
http://www.startribune.com/university-of-minnesota-to-test-three-drugs-for-covid-patients/568766632/
http://www.startribune.com/university-of-minnesota-to-test-three-drugs-for-covid-patients/568766632/
D
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Not to get all mushy on everyone, but what an opportunity to show people that they're loved and cared for by doing stuff like this. Even if they don't take you up on it, they'll know somebody cares about them. Instant morale boost for those who need it most.
np307
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We've been dealing with how to respond to this since Saturday. We still had services yesterday since we are under the 100 mark that our governor set, but we are trying to put everything in place to go ahead and suspend services for a couple weeks at least, especially in light of the CDC recommendation. The hardest part will be explaining to people that these EOs aren't religious persecution, but public health concerns. Seeing places like chick-fil-a suspend dining room service completely will help to reinforce this I hope.
ImBillT
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The current prevalence rate of .0012% or 12/10,000, is the reason that testing needs to continue to be very targeted for the time being. We can be fairly sure that prevalence is higher than what we’ve detected, but it takes a darn good test and perfect human performance not to get a few false positives per 10,000 tests performed. by only testing people who are I’ll from something, and people who have come into close contact with someone who tested positive, we can force a much higher covid-19 prevalence rate IN THE SAMPLE. When you test 10,000 random people and get 12 positives, it’s possible that no one even has covid-19. On the other hand, by only test those more likely to have it, and you test 10,000 high risk people, and turn up 100 positives(1% vs .0012%) then it becomes almost certain that quite a few people did in fact have covid-19.
Current test requirements are not JUST because of low availability, it is also required to get accurate data.
Once we have an adequate number of tests available, and adequate staff, we can probably do much broader testing and eliminate most false positives via retesting.
Does anyone expect COVID-19 to kill more people this year than the flu did last year? Seems to me we are taking extreme blanket measures to protect people who have a compromised immune system (mainly the elderly). Couldn't we accomplish the same thing by have those compromised individuals be the ones to self quarantine or social distance? Not sure why we have to shut down every event known to man and cripple the world economy..
Nameless Range
Well-known member
Yes they do.
As I posted earlier.
Some model estimates, like that in a UCSF press release, reported that 1.23 million Americans will die from the virus over the next 12-18 month. To put it in perspective: 2.8M Americans died last year in total.
Think about that. If correct, that is 1.2 million people dying, most of which wouldn't have otherwise. The flu kills about 60,000 people a year. Even if that model is off by half, it is still alarming as hell.
As someone whose spouse works in the ER, thank you all for keeping this thread on track and providing solid, reliable information.
The ND Governor was just on the radio. He stated we have one confirmed positive in ND and that man is self quarantined and doing well. To date 124 tests have been administered statewide.
The ND Governor was just on the radio. He stated we have one confirmed positive in ND and that man is self quarantined and doing well. To date 124 tests have been administered statewide.
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Well I'm no expert by a longshot. But those numbers sound crazy to me. Especially considering the current numbers and the countries already hardest hit https://ncov2019.live/. Are they expecting cases to increase exponentially during the summer months or virtually disappear like the flu and most other similar diseases?
squirrel
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To those who need certain things, (if you need everything you are pretty much screwed) the insider trading info i get is that point of sale in Kroger (and all its sub-sections) is completely @#$% up in most metro locations, less so in the rural areas but now the cities are exiting to raid the rural. Your mileage may vary, of course
It is evolving so quickly that this -being yesterday- may already be out-of -date. As should be predictable the crazy insane demand is working its way back up the retail ladder to the warehouse level. Ordering is being curtailed (in rather inept fashion) trying to not play favorites and bureaucratic snafu's are rampant though not seemingly with ill intent so far.
Warehouse shorts are prevalent and increasing exponentially as suppliers bail.
An example is that 125 meat packers all failed to show up simultaneously due to a union call to do so, effectively shutting down red meat to a large metro hub, these ripples will go outward and upward until another supplier can fill it (unlikely) or it knocks down another dominoe up higher on the ladder (much more likely)
I have no insider info higher than the regional level, trucks are still rolling though mandated to be lightly loaded due to the above mentioned ordering restrictions. You will have better luck getting items that are multi-packed rather than single packed- example 10- 5 lb bags of dog food rather than 1-50 lb bag of dog food.
And remember, you may be all stressed out but you will catch more flies with sugar than vinegar, those retailers are at ground zero and took no oath to serve and are not exactly getting rich either. What they are subject to is just amazing. Someone took a crap in a cart and wheeled it into the store and left it two days ago, unbelievable days we are witnessing. There are two forks in the road and many are choosing poorly.
Network with friends and barter with strangers...
It is evolving so quickly that this -being yesterday- may already be out-of -date. As should be predictable the crazy insane demand is working its way back up the retail ladder to the warehouse level. Ordering is being curtailed (in rather inept fashion) trying to not play favorites and bureaucratic snafu's are rampant though not seemingly with ill intent so far.
Warehouse shorts are prevalent and increasing exponentially as suppliers bail.
An example is that 125 meat packers all failed to show up simultaneously due to a union call to do so, effectively shutting down red meat to a large metro hub, these ripples will go outward and upward until another supplier can fill it (unlikely) or it knocks down another dominoe up higher on the ladder (much more likely)
I have no insider info higher than the regional level, trucks are still rolling though mandated to be lightly loaded due to the above mentioned ordering restrictions. You will have better luck getting items that are multi-packed rather than single packed- example 10- 5 lb bags of dog food rather than 1-50 lb bag of dog food.
And remember, you may be all stressed out but you will catch more flies with sugar than vinegar, those retailers are at ground zero and took no oath to serve and are not exactly getting rich either. What they are subject to is just amazing. Someone took a crap in a cart and wheeled it into the store and left it two days ago, unbelievable days we are witnessing. There are two forks in the road and many are choosing poorly.
Network with friends and barter with strangers...
Since the compromised individuals are primarily the ones ending up in the hospital, can't we still keep from crippling the healthcare system (and the world economy) by having only those at risk individuals self quarantine?
Nameless Range
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I agree that those numbers are crazy. I think that is why the response to this is ramping up. The podcast I posted earlier from Peter Attia really gets into the math of growth, the R0 of the virus(how contagious it is) and the point at which exponential growth ceases and the curve declines.. The CDC says 40-70% of Americans will get this thing over the next year and a half. Plug fatality rates into that along with demographic data and I think that is where that number comes from.
We are still early in this and exponential growth is powerful.
VikingsGuy
Well-known member
Between this spike and a foreseeable second spike in the fall (see influenza and other more common coronavirus spread data for support) we are talking 40-60% infection rate for US - that means 130 million to 195 million infected. 1% fatality rate which is on the lower side of many estimates and you have 1.3-1.95 million deaths. So if social distancing can move the numbers of infected below 40%, can prevent a second spike or just flatten the curve so we aren't letting people die because of lack of ventilators, you are talking about saving a half a million people. Seems like it's worth a few weeks of inconvenience.
VikingsGuy
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That is why every major agency is asking people to call in before going to the hospital - to make only the neediest are coming in and that people go to the right locations as many hospitals are restricting access to may traditional entrances.
AND,
Remember you are contagious 2-8 days before you know you are sick. So if you think you are fine but you expose 30 or 40 people by going to mall, work, movies, etc before you do feel sick, how does that help keep the numbers down?
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