COVID-19 Links, facts and discussion. Politics and hyperbole welcome.

[Hunting Wife]

The link I posted a couple posts back was a paper specifically about seasonal mortality. Go back and read if you are curious.

I’m out. Too much else to do.

 

[VikingsGuy]

But how would that work out seasonally? We both know that mortality is not the same in the summer. We’re turning our economy into a dumpster fire. We might as well be certain that more people are dying than normal. Imagine if China did nothing more than catch new type of common cold virus at its genesis,scare the world into panic, and bought everyone’s stock market.

I’m not saying we should all go mingle and pretend covid-19 doesn’t exist. I’m saying that we should all remain skeptical and open minded and that we should seek data that justifies our actions.

How many covid-19 patients are at the hospital your friend or relative works at and what is their condition?

Cancer surgery is elective? I hope no one in my community is missing out on a cancer surgery as we prepare for covid-19...we have three cases, and I’m pretty sure they’re all at home, not in the hospital.

For those who keep wondering about seasonal death rates in Italy, it is clear that the rest of us don't have that data at hand. if it really is an important part of the puzzle for you then I suggest you do the homework. I am sure somewhere on the internet the data is there - this is not an unusual question even in normal times. But (a) pinging the same people with the same question does not move this forward; and (b) it's bad form to use the absence of data as support for the notion that if the data was to be found it would support your position.

 

[matt0550]

Redirect Notice

NYC says they are NOT PREPARED....

 

[VikingsGuy]

Canadian border has been closed to all non essential back and forth travel, so restricting interstate travel for awhile could be a possibility.

Country to country travel in Europe (where the distance between countries is often less than the distance between states) is already being restricted - in some area people need prove of "need to travel". Probably impractical to lock down every county road in the country, but shutting interstates shouldn't be too hard - heck we do it for winter storms up north - the barricades are already in place.

 

[VikingsGuy]

Do you disagree that average of 1643 people die in Italy every day? I can't find the data per month but one can easily infer that this number would be the higher than average during cold and flu season in an elderly population. Agree?

First, I guarantee that the folks at Mayo, John Hopkins, CDC, etc are already factoring in these "caveats" as they review the data, so your observation true or not does not "make a case" that we are over reacting. It is unlikely the average HT keyboard jockey is going to discover a statistical anomaly that makes this all go away.

Second, I am saying that either (a) this has been beat to death let's move on; or (b) somebody who still feels this is an essential issue should just do the work and look it up; or (c) start it's own thread if speculations about seasonal Italian deaths is such an essential topic to have 50 posts over.

 

[ImBillT]

For those who keep wondering about seasonal death rates in Italy, it is clear that the rest of us don't have that data at hand. if it really is an important part of the puzzle for you then I suggest you do the homework. I am sure somewhere on the internet the data is there - this is not an unusual question even in normal times. But (a) pinging the same people with the same question does not move this forward; and (b) it's bad form to use the absence of data as support for the notion that if the data was to be found it would support your position.

I’m not saying the data would support my position. I’m saying that is the data we should be asking for. I may not be the best googler, but I haven’t found that info.

 

[El Jason]

Early Coronavirus Drug Trials Yield Mixed Results — Bloomberg

Drug trials on coronavirus patients in China yielded mixed results, with an HIV pill showing little benefit and a flu medication made by Fujifilm Holdings Corp. resulting in faster clearance of the virus.

apple.news

Back to news.

 

[Irrelevant]

I am struggling to understand why some people seem hell bent on something, I don't know, proving this is a hoax? That we shouldn't care about it? I honestly don't understand why people are wasting their time trying to suggest that this isn't serious. They're treating statistics like the old adage "the solution to pollution is dilution"

If you're looking at death rates and trying to say this isn't a big deal then dive deep and compare the death rate in Lombardy to "normal" and then ask you're self and you venture outside if we're actually doing enough to slow the spread.

 

[El Jason]

A Coronavirus Explosion Was Expected in Japan. Where Is It? — Bloomberg

Japan was one of first countries outside of China hit by the coronavirus and now it’s one of the least-affected among developed nations. That’s puzzling health experts.

apple.news

 

[LWC55]

Do you disagree that average of 1643 people die in Italy every day? I can't find the data per month but one can easily infer that this number would be the higher than average during cold and flu season in an elderly population. Agree?

https://www.ijidonline.com/article/S1201-9712(19)30328-5/fulltext

In recent years, Italy has been registering peaks in death rates, particularly among the elderly during the winter season.

Results
We estimated excess deaths of 7,027, 20,259, 15,801 and 24,981 attributable to influenza epidemics in the 2013/14, 2014/15, 2015/16 and 2016/17, respectively, using the Goldstein index.

Conclusions
Over 68,000 deaths were attributable to influenza epidemics in the study period. The observed excess of deaths is not completely unexpected, given the high number of fragile very old subjects living in Italy.
Highlights

• •
  In the winter seasons from 2013/14 to 2016/17, an estimated average of 5,290,000 ILI cases occurred in Italy, corresponding to an incidence of 9%.
• •
  More than 68,000 deaths attributable to flu epidemics were estimated in the study period.
• •
  Italy showed a higher influenza attributable excess mortality compared to other European countries. especially in the elderly.

 

[matt0550]

A Coronavirus Explosion Was Expected in Japan. Where Is It? — Bloomberg

Japan was one of first countries outside of China hit by the coronavirus and now it’s one of the least-affected among developed nations. That’s puzzling health experts.

apple.news

Because the Japanese are fanatical about cleanliness and practice social distancing well for a people occupying a small space. That's just from my personal experience there.

 

[El Jason]

How US military could be used in US in response to the coronavirus — Business Insider

The emergency response to the spread of COVID-19 has raised questions about what role the US military could play domestically. There are a number of ways the military could help, but there are legal and logistical limitations on what it can do, writes Mark F. Cancian, a senior adviser with the...

apple.news

 

[huronmtns]

I missed a zero again and 475 still had me wondering! If they average 1643 deaths/day, you can bet that’s a lot higher during cold/flu season. Are we all 100% that the 475 deaths from covid-19 would not have been 475 deaths from a different cold virus? We should be really really sure that this isn’t just a new common cold before we destroy ourselves.

Stay inside, don’t mingle, I’m not suggesting that we do things differently. I’m suggesting that we seek good data instead of falling prey to mass hysteria.

Do you have a formula in mind that would filter the variables involved and make "good data" that would make you happy? There are a lot of moving parts and loose boundary conditions.

 

[LWC55]

I am struggling to understand why some people seem hell bent on something, I don't know, proving this is a hoax? That we shouldn't care about it? I honestly don't understand why people are wasting their time trying to suggest that this isn't serious. They're treating statistics like the old adage "the solution to pollution is dilution"

If you're looking at death rates and trying to say this isn't a big deal then dive deep and compare the death rate in Lombardy to "normal" and then ask you're self and you venture outside if we're actually doing enough to slow the spread.

I'm not hell bent on anything. I just think we should try and look at all angles of this terrible situation. The media and governments all seem to be on pretty much the same page and giving out data for how bad this is. Shouldn't we question some of this and make sure what we are being told is absolute? I agree that this is a very bad disease and will kill thousands of more people and likely thousands of Americans. I'm just trying to wrap my head around if this is 2x worse than normal or 100x worse than a normal year or 1,000x. That info isn't being passed out freely from what I have seen.

 

[Sytes]

Canadian border has been closed to all non essential back and forth travel, so restricting interstate travel for awhile could be a possibility.

No proclamation has been made, yet. Until an order is inked as official, the border with Canada remains open w/ the ordered restrictions inked earlier re: U.K, PRC, Iran, etc.

Most recent set of Proclamation(s):

Presidential Proclamation on Novel Coronavirus

travel.state.gov

 

[bushman13]

It's because I have learned over the years, when certain people are pushing an agenda or screaming the loudest, they are creating a narrative. When those players show up, the effort is pre-planned, nefarious and the opposite of truth. The issue doesn't matter, the players and groups are everything. They are comprised or bought and sold, therefore they have to say "how high" when told to jump.

Redirect Notice

NYC says they are NOT PREPARED....

I am struggling to understand why some people seem hell bent on something, I don't know, proving this is a hoax? That we shouldn't care about it? I honestly don't understand why people are wasting their time trying to suggest that this isn't serious. They're treating statistics like the old adage "the solution to pollution is dilution"

If you're looking at death rates and trying to say this isn't a big deal then dive deep and compare the death rate in Lombardy to "normal" and then ask you're self and you venture outside if we're actually doing enough to slow the spread.

 

[Nameless Range]

Not sure if this type of article belongs on this thread, but here's another bothersome article about health care workers on the front lines of this.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/dad-are-you-okay-doctors-and-nurses-fighting-pandemic-fear-infecting-their-families/2020/03/18/8beefc66-689b-11ea-b313-df458622c2cc_story.html

 

[ImBillT]

Do you have a formula in mind that would filter the variables involved and make "good data" that would make you happy? There are a lot of moving parts and loose boundary conditions.

Yes. How many people died each day of the year over the past 10 years. Compare Jan 1st this year, to Jan 1st over the last ten years, and Jan 2nd and so on. If Italy is the worst case scenario, and they definitely have a big spike in the death rate, then this is definitely really bad. If it’s hard to see a big difference, then we might want to slow down the freak out mode. I’m open to either outcome. I was pretty fearful of this early on.

Currently, the information that I do in fact have, is that 475 people who tested positive for covid-19 died in Italy yesterday. The daily average for all cause death in Italy would normally be 1750. That begs the question, “would those 475 people have died from the common cold yesterday if covid-19 didn’t exist?” The VAST majority of confirmed covid-19 deaths are people who would be on quite precarious ground if they caught any illness. If the data shows that on a bad day or week or month of a year with a bad cold/flu season there would be fewer deaths than Italy is experiencing, the we need to put the hammer down on this thing in the US before it gets out of hand. If the data shows that two or three of the last ten years in Italy experienced a similar death rate in their worst week, then we might want think pretty hard about how we move forward.

 

[Straight Arrow]

I'm not hell bent on anything. I just think we should try and look at all angles of this terrible situation. The media and governments all seem to be on pretty much the same page and giving out data for how bad this is. Shouldn't we question some of this and make sure what we are being told is absolute? I agree that this is a very bad disease and will kill thousands of more people and likely thousands of Americans. I'm just trying to wrap my head around if this is 2x worse than normal or 100x worse than a normal year or 1,000x. That info isn't being passed out freely from what I have seen.

We live in a representative democracy with the reality of trusting those in the right positions to receive, assimilate the facts, and agree on good decisions to keep constituents safe. Certainly, we are blessed with the freedom to ask questions and get answers which satisfy our concerns. But in this fast paced pandemic-stressed world today, suggesting that all the data and analysis be vetted and made public prior to timely actions is unrealistic, as well as unsafe. Suggesting an attempt to "put the genie back into the bottle" is not helpful either.

 

[ImBillT]

The WHO desperately needed a pandemic this year. You can look that up.