Thanks, that makes sense. The tension we have with other superpowers bothers me more than the dollar figure itself
U.S. Debt Ceiling. 31.4 Trillion!
- Thread starter Sytes
- Start date
noharleyyet
Well-known member
Russian forces simulate nuclear strike as parliament rescinds ratification of test-ban treaty
The drills on Wednesday took place hours after the upper house of the Russian parliament revoked the ratification of a global nuclear test ban in what Moscow has described as a move to establish parity with the United States.
www.pbs.org
Super power debt to China equivent to our required dependency for China's minerals to advance our further debt to them as we progress deeper into "green energy". Now, China (due to U.S. / Russia / China powers duking it out over Ukraine and Israel) has cut off minerals to America's current addiction. Lobbyist will be barking for plea deals with China soon enough.
How the United States Handed China Its Rare-Earth Monopoly
And how Washington could get it back.
foreignpolicy.com
antelopedundee
Well-known member
For as long as I can remember as long as the debt didn't exceed GDP or percentage increase it was fine.
VikingsGuy
Well-known member
China only has 11% of our debt so hardly in charge. Japan and various European countries hold much bigger share. As long as US is the global reserve currency and is able to issue its debt in its own currency (the dollar), the "China owns us through debt" narrative is a complete non-starter. Heck, combined Belgium, Luxembourg and Switzerland own more than China.Super power debt to China equivent to our required dependency for China's minerals to advance our further debt to them as we progress deeper into "green energy". Now, China (due to U.S. / Russia / China powers duking it out over Ukraine and Israel) has cut off minerals to America's current addiction. Lobbyist will be barking for plea deals with China soon enough.
How the United States Handed China Its Rare-Earth Monopoly
And how Washington could get it back.
On the flip side, I do agree that allowing China to dominate essential minerals is a huge risk. The bright side, the US and our allies have plenty of the relevant ores available, we just need to accept the higher pricing (and environmental issues in our backyards) of non-chinese processing (and the lag in getting those plants built and running).
My point is - our debt to China will (is) inflating due to our necessity / dependence for China's minerals. Not that China owns a bit over 3.64 TRILLION dollars of our debt... And that value is no laughing matter nor minisual to dismiss.
That help you better understand my point?
SAJ-99
Well-known member
I don't think that number is correct. Curious on the source and composition because you bolded it.
Edit: sorry, looks like it came from VG's post. It isn't correct. China owns about $800-850B and that number has been declining for well over a decade.
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Good catch there, @SAJ-99 - correct, $894 Billion dollars is owed to China. Our largest foreign debt is to China and Japan.
While China maintains it's ownership of U.S. debt for sake of its Yuan position for trade, etc... The content expressed in my post was semi related to one of the two largest foreign debt owners. It is in conjunction with U.S. dependency for minerals that China has maintained dominance, not only in China though their State operations to own controlling % interests in other main countries minerals.
Example: main international mineral extraction company, Rio Tinto, 14% of shareholder ownership derives from Chinese State ownership. that is over the 10% typical threshold to have a seat on the board. That with Chinese owned minerals within their own country...
When taking the largest foregin owner of U.S. treasuries (again, mostly for sake of maintaining Yuan strength) and the primary mineral holdings that U.S. is openly allowing China to dominate the current and future trade war negotiations... Our U.S. Debt will futher enter into a dependency for Chinese trade - compound that with current Superpower geopolitics and boom!
U.S. population, etc and Social Security (main owner of our treasury "debt") will squander by some projected 2033.
The world dominance is in for a rude awakening the less U.S. avoids our own backyard for mining and depends on foreign countries for minerals.
Our GDP vs U.S Debt is viewing a titanic sized iceberg...
While China maintains it's ownership of U.S. debt for sake of its Yuan position for trade, etc... The content expressed in my post was semi related to one of the two largest foreign debt owners. It is in conjunction with U.S. dependency for minerals that China has maintained dominance, not only in China though their State operations to own controlling % interests in other main countries minerals.
Example: main international mineral extraction company, Rio Tinto, 14% of shareholder ownership derives from Chinese State ownership. that is over the 10% typical threshold to have a seat on the board. That with Chinese owned minerals within their own country...
When taking the largest foregin owner of U.S. treasuries (again, mostly for sake of maintaining Yuan strength) and the primary mineral holdings that U.S. is openly allowing China to dominate the current and future trade war negotiations... Our U.S. Debt will futher enter into a dependency for Chinese trade - compound that with current Superpower geopolitics and boom!
U.S. population, etc and Social Security (main owner of our treasury "debt") will squander by some projected 2033.
The world dominance is in for a rude awakening the less U.S. avoids our own backyard for mining and depends on foreign countries for minerals.
Our GDP vs U.S Debt is viewing a titanic sized iceberg...
SAJ-99
Well-known member
I think you are mashing two things together that are not linked directly. I think the first is true, but there are other countries that supply the world with a lot of these minerals. But yes, doing it at home would be a better idea, if only for security purposes.
China's debt to GDP is headed in the same direction as ours. It seems every major country is managing the same problem and while simultaneously buying and selling US Treasuries to manage the currency. Last 20yr bond auction was very heavy in foreign buyers, so the higher rates entice some investors. If rates get so high that it imperils the economy, maybe Americans will make some hard choices resulting in a stronger effort toward paying it off. But probably not.
VikingsGuy
Well-known member
It's 11% of foreign-owned debt which was the discussion. But I could have been clearer.
China Dominates the Rare Earths Market. This U.S. Mine Is Trying to Change That.
Mountain Pass sits at the center of America’s plan to rival China’s iron grip on critical rare earth elements used in advanced commercial and military technology.
www.politico.com
Foreign owned debt is 33%... not 11%.
Actually:
Major foreign holders treasury securities U.S. 2023 | Statista
As of July 2023, Japan held United States treasury securities totaling about 1.1 trillion U.S.
www.statista.com
Foreign holders of United States treasury debt
According to the Federal Reserve and U.S. Department of the Treasury, foreign countries held a total of 7.4 trillion U.S. dollars in U.S. treasury securities as of April 2023. Of the total 7.6 trillion held by foreign countries, Japan and Mainland China held the greatest portions, with China holding 868.9 billion U.S. dollars in U.S. securities. Other foreign holders included oil exporting countries and Caribbean banking centers.
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VikingsGuy
Well-known member
Yup just like I said.
Disregard. I see what you are saying now. My bad.
Newly elected Republican gavel thumper:
“The greatest threat to our national security is our nation’s debt,” Johnson said. “We know this is not going to be an easy task, and tough decisions will have to be made. But the consequences if we don’t act now are unbearable. We have a duty to the American people to explain this to them so they understand it well. And we’re going to establish a bipartisan debt commission to begin working on this crisis immediately.” - Mike Johnson
Aside usual political hypocrisy, he's an enemy of the federal sector, supporter of our border security, opponent of the funding $ value for the Ukrainian war, staunch supporter of the Israeli "war", fierce opponent of abortion, prior to politics - Louisiana evangelist, continued press to raise the age / large $ Social Security cuts, and strong backer of Trump.
Some I like other aspects I really don't. Nature of politics.
Bracing for another gridlock Nov 8 showdown...
“The greatest threat to our national security is our nation’s debt,” Johnson said. “We know this is not going to be an easy task, and tough decisions will have to be made. But the consequences if we don’t act now are unbearable. We have a duty to the American people to explain this to them so they understand it well. And we’re going to establish a bipartisan debt commission to begin working on this crisis immediately.” - Mike Johnson
Aside usual political hypocrisy, he's an enemy of the federal sector, supporter of our border security, opponent of the funding $ value for the Ukrainian war, staunch supporter of the Israeli "war", fierce opponent of abortion, prior to politics - Louisiana evangelist, continued press to raise the age / large $ Social Security cuts, and strong backer of Trump.
Some I like other aspects I really don't. Nature of politics.
Bracing for another gridlock Nov 8 showdown...
antlerradar
Well-known member
Maybe, Probly has more to do with getting a more favorabe scoring from the CBO and being able to run on the Democrats are going to increase your taxes in twenty twentyfour.
SAJ-99
Well-known member
Sounds like he will get a CR into next year. Jan or April we’re the dates floating around. It is hard for me to really take anything he says seriously. As is common in the HofR, there is a complete lack of understanding of macro economics, the US budget, and apparently now policitcs. I like that he thinks this needs to be explained to the American people, I just wonder who’s going to tells them they have to sacrifice something to pay it down.
For sure that will be the message. They will blame various bulls like CHIPS and IRA for the problem. And Dems will say they will lock in that individual rate below some “wealthy” threshold and increase the corporate rate to 26-28% and have some manadatory minimums. Despite the CHIpS and IRA containing some of the best industrial policy in the last 50yrs that should result in a positive return for the money spent and supply chain security, Dems suck at trying to explain that. The bottom line, neither side wants to tell anyone the truth and Americans don’t want to hear it.
Derek44
Well-known member
Just my opinion but there won’t be any shutdown. They will play it to the last hour like always, but I’d be willing to bet we never see a real shutdown again.
Straight Arrow
Well-known member
And / Or ... serve the remainder of term without pay and without the govt health insurance and myriad of other congressional "perks"!
Maybe just suspend their trading accounts until they get it corrected.
