U.S. Debt Ceiling. 31.4 Trillion!

Sytes

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Wild! Each year, push it down the road and now the question stands, "What road?".

"The clock is ticking for a divided U.S. Congress to raise the federal government's debt ceiling, which currently stands at $31.4T, but risks running out of cash as soon as June 1. Razor-thin margins in Congress are complicating the matter, as only a handful of rejections could derail any deal, and concessions are a lot harder to come by, with extreme flanks enveloping both sides of the debt limit debate. While President Biden has invited House Speaker Kevin McCarthy to a meeting on Tuesday, things can quickly spiral in the danger zone, and is one of three make-or-break crises now impacting the U.S., according to SA contributor ING.

Quote: "It's simply unacceptable for Congress to threaten economic calamity for American households and the global financial system as the cost of raising the debt ceiling and getting agreement on budget priorities," Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told ABC's This Week. "Even as we get very close to this date, if Congress doesn't act, we're likely to see financial market consequences. There is no way to protect our financial system and our economy other than Congress doing its job and raising the debt ceiling and enabling us to pay our bills."

As the U.S. gets closer to the brink of a default, talk has even circulated about possible emergency options that could be used to circumvent a disaster. Some ideas that have surfaced include invoking the 14th Amendment, as well as the trillion-dollar coin and issuing debt with coupons above current yields. While President Biden on Friday said he's "not gotten there yet" regarding using an option like the 14th Amendment, Janet Yellen was slightly more forthcoming about what would happen if an agreement failed to materialize on Capitol Hill.

Go deeper: "We should not get to the point that we would need to consider whether the President can go on issuing debt - this would be a constitutional crisis," she declared. "If they fail to do it, we will have an economic and financial catastrophe that will be of our own making, and there is no action that President Biden and the U.S. Treasury can take to prevent that catastrophe." When pressed to answer whether there is a "break glass" alternative, Yellen didn't appear to rule anything out, but said she didn't want to consider emergency procedures as there were "simply no good options.""

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How many times can this continue to be spun?

Forget politics: Where is this "Default" line?
 
The US Debt limit is from past appropriations,
analogous to spending wildly with a credit card,
then waking up to a huge bill that must be paid.

If the US comes close to or does default, both stocks and bonds would tank,
loan rates would rise, inflation would increase, etc.
 
I find it interesting that we don't acknowledge how much debt is owned by folks looking for a "safe" investment.

Social security, retirees, pension plans, foreign retirees I mean there is a reason the country with the highest average age holds the most US debt... question that I haven't heard answered is what happens to these investors 1. if we default but then 2. if we start decreasing the debt dramatically?
 
If the US comes close to or does default, both stocks and bonds would tank,
loan rates would rise, inflation would increase, etc.
When is this supposed to occur? "Default"?

My impression, it's diluted to the point numerous loans all have their own, thus the idea of reaching "Default" in the singular sense is PR B.S. hype for the R&D's to wrangle pig rinds...
Is this accurate or?

Also, I've know a good amount is borrowed (aka steal from Peter to pay Paul) from S.S., etc from U.S.C.'s - is there a "Default" for this "loan"?
 
Every byte impugns...fulltime campaign rhetoric

...next crisis, get ready to spin
I want to agree, but it seems like playing with matches while standing in a pool of spilled gasoline. Eventually you start a fire you didn't mean to. Read something this morning that said "...a deal seems to be made, but we must endure lots of scare pieces about default and even more tedious articles about the trillion-dollar coin." As much as I search for a piece of information that could lead me to this conclusion I can't find it. Until I do, it seems like hope and that makes me uneasy because a lot of people seem to be just ignoring as political posturing.

question that I haven't heard answered is what happens to these investors 1. if we default but then 2. if we start decreasing the debt dramatically?
Don't really have answers. If #2 were ever to be a problem, maybe we revisit GW's plan to invest SS funds into US stocks. If we remember 2020, there was a stupid idea on defaulting only on the US debt China held. That kind of moronic idea comes from someone with zero knowledge of securities and economics. Might buy some time if we tell government workers to stay home without pay (except Congress of course. They still get paid). That is usually step 1. If we don't pay back a maturity or interest on US debt all hell breaks loose. mostly because all of this is a confidence game. Those maturities are the funds that pay SS payments. Who is telling those people they won't get checks until Congress pulls their heads out of their asses?

If I want to buy a bond this morning (Not investment advice), there is what I am being quoted. Market is still not very confident in this not happening.
Screenshot 2023-05-08 at 10.30.18 AM.png
 
I find it interesting that we don't acknowledge how much debt is owned by folks looking for a "safe" investment.

Social security, retirees, pension plans, foreign retirees I mean there is a reason the country with the highest average age holds the most US debt... question that I haven't heard answered is what happens to these investors 1. if we default but then 2. if we start decreasing the debt dramatically?
Hmm…. Maybe this is why those iBonds y’all talked me into buying were paying such good rates. 🤔 Perhaps they aren’t so “safe” after all. 😆
 
Just kicking the can down road.
I laugh when I read this as I think back. I think the only time in the last 50 yrs we have ever had a budget surplus was 2001, the year Bush took office. He didn't pay down the debt, he promptly wrote rebate checks to everyone. I don't really think anyone is interested in paying down the debt, so the can gets kicked. There is always talk of "growth" (checking google, 2001 bill was called Economic Growth and Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2001). The bottom line is if we reduce government spending, growth will slow. There is no way around that and we should accept it. Politicians like to promise us all the things we want - low taxes, economic growth, saving the planet, etc. But nothing is free.
 
The common thread across the globe is that societies far prefer receiving government services, compared to paying for them.

The only places without high debt loads are countries that are so poor that no one will loan them money.
 
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