Anybody Buying Yet? Where’s the Bottom?

[Big Sky Guy]

picking winners from stocks is especially risky when multiple players are in the game.

Seems like smart move is to just buy stocks that the US government buys stake in as they are picking the winners for us, no? I haven't done such but seems to have worked out well for Intel and Trilogy. Now I know, they probably won't do that again, but if they do buy stake in a nuclear tech company I think I'd have a hard time not biting.

 

[Gulf of America]

Seems like smart move is to just buy stocks that the US government buys stake in as they are picking the winners for us, no? I haven't done such but seems to have worked out well for Intel and Trilogy. Now I know, they probably won't do that again, but if they do buy stake in a nuclear tech company I think I'd have a hard time not biting.

Or companies that Don Jr and Eric are on the board; pretty diverse range of stuff they're into these days from gov drone contracts to tungsten mining in Kazakhstan. Real entrepreneurs.

 

[Big Sky Guy]

Or companies that Don Jr and Eric are on the board; pretty diverse range of stuff they're into these days from gov drone contracts to tungsten mining in Kazakhstan. Real entrepreneurs.

Just stay away from the gold phones!

 

[Flatrock]

Huh? I never said that. Most people should move along with their investment plan. I'm sitting at about 75/25. This thread is for interesting ideas or concerns. Some people are in oil stocks, some in tech, some in chips. People are just pointing out things to watch or names that might benefit. If my posts bother you, use the block button.

That's why I was asking. "Investors are ignoring a lot" makes it sound like you are a lot more negative than positive. Maybe I'm wrong but that seems to usually be the case. I'm just saying that stocks trend up over time and fighting it is damn tough. The more I sit on my hands and do nothing, the better I usually do. I assume it's the same for the majority of other people too.

 

[406dn]

I'm just saying that stocks trend up over time and fighting it is damn tough. The more I sit on my hands and do nothing, the better I usually do. I assume it's the same for the majority of other people too.

My experience is time in the market is more important than timing the market.

I have a few holdings that have not done much, Verizon, for one. Others have done better than I would have dared to ask. Buying and holding Google since 2014, has rewarded me very well.

 

[SAJ-99]

"Investors are ignoring a lot" makes it sound like you are a lot more negative than positive.

Professionals are paid to worry about everything. Everyone should remember that when they talk with their advisor. I also don't adjust my portfolio much. That may seem unusual, but it works. I also think sitting on my hands is often the best choice, particularly when I can't explain why the market is doing what it is doing.

Let's make the lists. Feel free to add things I might have missed...

The good (only two, but two that really matter)
- Earnings have and are forecast to be strong
- Stocks are going up

The bad
- 10yr UST is nearing 4.5% (when people ask about lower rates, this is one that matters and is controlled by the market)
- Oil over $100/brl
- War with Iran has no clear end and it is affecting input costs (fertilizer prices up 50%, Polyethylene up 20%, Aluminum up 15%)
- Inflation CPI was 3.8% with core at 2.8%, and rising, causing real wage growth to turn negative. Electricity up 6%. Consumer sentiment at all-time lows
- S&P is rich, trading at 27x 2025 earnings and 23x 2026 forward. Growth is good so easy to overlook, but still expensive.
- The entire economy is driven predominantly by the AI theme. All areas other than energy are pretty lackluster. People are starting to push back against all these new datacenters. To jump back to earnings, it is a bit of accounting magic for these companies. One company sells something and gets to account for all the income today. The other company buys or builds something and the expense gets to be spread over years. This is normal, but when it is concentrated in a single area it makes me nervous. Everyone will keep dancing as long as the music is playing. What makes the music stop is the question.
- S&P severely overbought on a daily (RSI over 75) and weekly (70) basis. Very often a sign of a slightly pullback to come to reset.
- In the recent rise (May) trading volumes have been weak, signally it is the algos trading versus each other. Often I can't figure out what they are trading on - but that may be a 'Me' problem. We seem to be in an environment where good news is good news and bad news is good news. That will adjust at some point.
- Layoffs in tech are the tip-of-iceberg problem. New weekly unemployment claims are still near 200k but the new estimated for adding jobs per month is only 30k. Most layoffs come in recessions, these are not. And most layoffs don't result in a jump in stock prices, these are. That monster feeds itself.


Yeah, I am concerned. But until I see people start heading for the exit I will just sit on my hands.

 

[406dn]

Yeah, I am concerned. But until I see people start heading for the exit I will just sit on my hands.

One of Warren Buffet's tenets is that the best time to buy, is when everyone else is heading for the exits, easier said than done.

 

[Irrelevant]

Professionals are paid to worry about everything. Everyone should remember that when they talk with their advisor. I also don't adjust my portfolio much. That may seem unusual, but it works. I also think sitting on my hands is often the best choice, particularly when I can't explain why the market is doing what it is doing.

Let's make the lists. Feel free to add things I might have missed...

The good (only two, but two that really matter)
- Earnings have and are forecast to be strong
- Stocks are going up

The bad
- 10yr UST is nearing 4.5% (when people ask about lower rates, this is one that matters and is controlled by the market)
- Oil over $100/brl
- War with Iran has no clear end and it is affecting input costs (fertilizer prices up 50%, Polyethylene up 20%, Aluminum up 15%)
- Inflation CPI was 3.8% with core at 2.8%, and rising, causing real wage growth to turn negative. Electricity up 6%. Consumer sentiment at all-time lows
- S&P is rich, trading at 27x 2025 earnings and 23x 2026 forward. Growth is good so easy to overlook, but still expensive.
- The entire economy is driven predominantly by the AI theme. All areas other than energy are pretty lackluster. People are starting to push back against all these new datacenters. To jump back to earnings, it is a bit of accounting magic for these companies. One company sells something and gets to account for all the income today. The other company buys or builds something and the expense gets to be spread over years. This is normal, but when it is concentrated in a single area it makes me nervous. Everyone will keep dancing as long as the music is playing. What makes the music stop is the question.
- S&P severely overbought on a daily (RSI over 75) and weekly (70) basis. Very often a sign of a slightly pullback to come to reset.
- In the recent rise (May) trading volumes have been weak, signally it is the algos trading versus each other. Often I can't figure out what they are trading on - but that may be a 'Me' problem. We seem to be in an environment where good news is good news and bad news is good news. That will adjust at some point.
- Layoffs in tech are the tip-of-iceberg problem. New weekly unemployment claims are still near 200k but the new estimated for adding jobs per month is only 30k. Most layoffs come in recessions, these are not. And most layoffs don't result in a jump in stock prices, these are. That monster feeds itself.


Yeah, I am concerned. But until I see people start heading for the exit I will just sit on my hands.

“When will I get credit for having created, with No Inflation, perhaps the Greatest Economy in the History of our Country?” -Trump, dec. 2025

 

[noharleyyet]

Professionals are paid to worry about everything. Everyone should remember that when they talk with their advisor. I also don't adjust my portfolio much. That may seem unusual, but it works. I also think sitting on my hands is often the best choice, particularly when I can't explain why the market is doing what it is doing.

Let's make the lists. Feel free to add things I might have missed...

The good (only two, but two that really matter)
- Earnings have and are forecast to be strong
- Stocks are going up

The bad
- 10yr UST is nearing 4.5% (when people ask about lower rates, this is one that matters and is controlled by the market)
- Oil over $100/brl
- War with Iran has no clear end and it is affecting input costs (fertilizer prices up 50%, Polyethylene up 20%, Aluminum up 15%)
- Inflation CPI was 3.8% with core at 2.8%, and rising, causing real wage growth to turn negative. Electricity up 6%. Consumer sentiment at all-time lows
- S&P is rich, trading at 27x 2025 earnings and 23x 2026 forward. Growth is good so easy to overlook, but still expensive.
- The entire economy is driven predominantly by the AI theme. All areas other than energy are pretty lackluster. People are starting to push back against all these new datacenters. To jump back to earnings, it is a bit of accounting magic for these companies. One company sells something and gets to account for all the income today. The other company buys or builds something and the expense gets to be spread over years. This is normal, but when it is concentrated in a single area it makes me nervous. Everyone will keep dancing as long as the music is playing. What makes the music stop is the question.
- S&P severely overbought on a daily (RSI over 75) and weekly (70) basis. Very often a sign of a slightly pullback to come to reset.
- In the recent rise (May) trading volumes have been weak, signally it is the algos trading versus each other. Often I can't figure out what they are trading on - but that may be a 'Me' problem. We seem to be in an environment where good news is good news and bad news is good news. That will adjust at some point.
- Layoffs in tech are the tip-of-iceberg problem. New weekly unemployment claims are still near 200k but the new estimated for adding jobs per month is only 30k. Most layoffs come in recessions, these are not. And most layoffs don't result in a jump in stock prices, these are. That monster feeds itself.


Yeah, I am concerned. But until I see people start heading for the exit I will just sit on my hands.

 

[Flatrock]

Professionals are paid to worry about everything. Everyone should remember that when they talk with their advisor. I also don't adjust my portfolio much. That may seem unusual, but it works. I also think sitting on my hands is often the best choice, particularly when I can't explain why the market is doing what it is doing.

Let's make the lists. Feel free to add things I might have missed...

The good (only two, but two that really matter)
- Earnings have and are forecast to be strong
- Stocks are going up

I don't have an advisor but if I did, I wouldn't want one worrying about everything. I'd want one that puts me in the right mix for me of stocks, bonds and maybe a little other stuff and leave things alone. The market has been positive 17 of the last 20 years. I don't want to look for reasons to fight that. Maybe you're coming at that from a different angle though. IMO, the only reason a person should scale back on their stock allocation is if they think a recession is coming and a bad bear market.

Your good list I agree with and is mostly all that matters IMO. Especially the first one. Earnings are king. The bad list items could for sure knock the market down 5-10% but overall, I just don't think they matter that much for the market. 10 years ago, that list would have had me worried as hell but not now. If I thought it could put us into recession, then I would be super concerned but I don't.

 

[LopeHunter]

Don't count your chickens....

Virginia court tosses Democratic map, dealing blow to party’s midterm hopes | Reuters https://share.google/yj4HNaWnRAsCfeSAQ

$5 gas is hitting a lot of blue collar types, workers and employers, that are driving those big ol’ vehicles around to spin wrenches and fix things. Farmers use a lot of diesel and fertilizer.

I rarely see huge flags flapping from the back of lifted trucks honking their horns and rolling coal these days.

Voter turnout in rural areas could be down compared to midterms in the first Trump term. Enthusiasm ebbs while waiting for economic gains in these households which in turn impacts statewide races in purple states and House races in purple districts.

Sure, our stock market has done quite well but the rural economy performance does not parallel the stock market. A lot of $5 fuel is burned on the roads to get goods to rural areas.

No viable chance either political party attains 2/3 vote needed in the Senate to convict a sitting President. Meanwhile, Presidential pardons are a powerful tool to flatten the witness list except when the person is facing state charges.

Diddy and Maxwell are hoping to be included in the upcoming 250 Presidential pardons to “celebrate” America’s 250th. I have my popcorn ready for when that list is announced.

 

[SAJ-99]

the only reason a person should scale back on their stock allocation is if they think a recession is coming and a bad bear market.

Sure, but 1) you should reduce stocks holding as you age and 2) if you know the person that sees a recession coming please introduce me.

 

[Bonasababy]

What I did when working but approaching retirement and was getting more conservative is just shift the mix a bit. Wholesale changes no. If I was around 65/35 or a bit more to stocks/bonds I'd just bring it down to 60/40 or maybe 55/45 If I was really worried. Lost out on some gains, made out well for short down periods--but not panicking was the main thing that kept my base and allowed continued growth.

This is also what I would want any financial advisor to do. Frequent moves in/out and daily or even weekly trading costs in the long run and there is no one good enough at it to beat a sound portfolio mixed appropriate to age/risk tolerance and just tweaked a bit as long term market outlooks change.

My mistakes were in my younger years. Having too much in one screaming (tech) sector before it crashed, having too much in the funds of one company (This goes back a ways and many may not remember the lesson, but the company was Janus, who at the time held the same exact underlying stocks in most of their funds, just different mixes. Got their hands slapped by the SEC due to a market timing scheme as well--but investors were not made whole.)

Also split funding both of our workplace plans for too many years rather than sticking it all in the one that had the best performance due to it's much bigger match.

 

[406dn]

Sure, but 1) you should reduce stocks holding as you age and 2) if you know the person that sees a recession coming please introduce me.

I think, like most things, it depends.

Much of it is an individual's risk tolerance. I have been more or less all in on stocks, aside from a cash position to cover a couple of years of expenses, since I retired. It has worked out very well in my senior years, certainly far better than if I had shifted to the common advice to become more conservative.

A book that helped me to decide how to invest my retirement funds was "Plan Your Prosperity" by Ken Fisher. He helped me realize that at 62, my runway was longer than I thought. A retirement might last over thirty years. I am now thirteen years into retirement, and turning 75 in a few days. My financial concerns have evolved from, will our nest egg last, to perhaps I can put our grandchildren thru college.

Certainly, my approach is not for every person. A friend from work, retired a few years before me. He took the lump sum and had a financial advisor invest it for him. This was just before the rough period in late 2008, into 2009. He could not stomach the rollercoaster, and told his advisor to sell all of it, and purchase an annuity, with the remaining funds. His advisor could not change his mind. So, he locked himself into an annuity that was 30% less than the one he could have accepted from the company.

The stock market is not for everyone. Its returns are very erratic. There is no better way thou, over a longer span of time to get similar returns.

 

[brymoore]

I firmly believe in DCA!

 

[SAJ-99]

I firmly believe in DCA!

Retiring is DCA in reverse. You are taking out on a regular basis rather than putting in. 2022 is a preview of the worst case scenario. Anyone taking income from retirement funds was selling low in both stocks and bonds. Luckily the stock portion has recovered, but the bond piece largely hasn't, which is the exact opposite of what should happen. The bet now seems to be the stock market is Too Big To Fail. Interesting times ahead.

 

[Nick87]

I firmly believe in DCA!

What is DCA?

 

[406dn]

What is DCA?

Dollar cost averaging. It's basically, keep adding to your positions, with every pay period. When stocks are down, you get more shares, less when they are higher.

 

[BuzzH]

Retiring is DCA in reverse. You are taking out on a regular basis rather than putting in. 2022 is a preview of the worst case scenario. Anyone taking income from retirement funds was selling low in both stocks and bonds. Luckily the stock portion has recovered, but the bond piece largely hasn't, which is the exact opposite of what should happen. The bet now seems to be the stock market is Too Big To Fail. Interesting times ahead.

Skim enough cash to ride out 16 months to 2 years.

 

[Bonasababy]

I think, like most things, it depends.

Much of it is an individual's risk tolerance. I have been more or less all in on stocks, aside from a cash position to cover a couple of years of expenses, since I retired. It has worked out very well in my senior years, certainly far better than if I had shifted to the common advice to become more conservative.

A book that helped me to decide how to invest my retirement funds was "Plan Your Prosperity" by Ken Fisher. He helped me realize that at 62, my runway was longer than I thought. A retirement might last over thirty years. I am now thirteen years into retirement, and turning 75 in a few days. My financial concerns have evolved from, will our nest egg last, to perhaps I can put our grandchildren thru college.

Certainly, my approach is not for every person. A friend from work, retired a few years before me. He took the lump sum and had a financial advisor invest it for him. This was just before the rough period in late 2008, into 2009. He could not stomach the rollercoaster, and told his advisor to sell all of it, and purchase an annuity, with the remaining funds. His advisor could not change his mind. So, he locked himself into an annuity that was 30% less than the one he could have accepted from the company.

The stock market is not for everyone. Its returns are very erratic. There is no better way thou, over a longer span of time to get similar returns.

A key component missing here is how much money you NEED to cover retirement needs out to a ripe old age and how much you are starting out with.

If you start with a third more than you need (assuming here you have done some type of Monte Carlo analysis and are assuming a smaller avg return than we have been used to for years that accounts for inflation) versus starting out with just what you need, your approach can and should be different.