Anybody Buying Yet? Where’s the Bottom?

[Big Sky Guy]

picking winners from stocks is especially risky when multiple players are in the game.

Seems like smart move is to just buy stocks that the US government buys stake in as they are picking the winners for us, no? I haven't done such but seems to have worked out well for Intel and Trilogy. Now I know, they probably won't do that again, but if they do buy stake in a nuclear tech company I think I'd have a hard time not biting.

 

[Gulf of America]

Seems like smart move is to just buy stocks that the US government buys stake in as they are picking the winners for us, no? I haven't done such but seems to have worked out well for Intel and Trilogy. Now I know, they probably won't do that again, but if they do buy stake in a nuclear tech company I think I'd have a hard time not biting.

Or companies that Don Jr and Eric are on the board; pretty diverse range of stuff they're into these days from gov drone contracts to tungsten mining in Kazakhstan. Real entrepreneurs.

 

[Big Sky Guy]

Or companies that Don Jr and Eric are on the board; pretty diverse range of stuff they're into these days from gov drone contracts to tungsten mining in Kazakhstan. Real entrepreneurs.

Just stay away from the gold phones!

 

[Flatrock]

Huh? I never said that. Most people should move along with their investment plan. I'm sitting at about 75/25. This thread is for interesting ideas or concerns. Some people are in oil stocks, some in tech, some in chips. People are just pointing out things to watch or names that might benefit. If my posts bother you, use the block button.

That's why I was asking. "Investors are ignoring a lot" makes it sound like you are a lot more negative than positive. Maybe I'm wrong but that seems to usually be the case. I'm just saying that stocks trend up over time and fighting it is damn tough. The more I sit on my hands and do nothing, the better I usually do. I assume it's the same for the majority of other people too.

 

[406dn]

I'm just saying that stocks trend up over time and fighting it is damn tough. The more I sit on my hands and do nothing, the better I usually do. I assume it's the same for the majority of other people too.

My experience is time in the market is more important than timing the market.

I have a few holdings that have not done much, Verizon, for one. Others have done better than I would have dared to ask. Buying and holding Google since 2014, has rewarded me very well.

 

[SAJ-99]

"Investors are ignoring a lot" makes it sound like you are a lot more negative than positive.

Professionals are paid to worry about everything. Everyone should remember that when they talk with their advisor. I also don't adjust my portfolio much. That may seem unusual, but it works. I also think sitting on my hands is often the best choice, particularly when I can't explain why the market is doing what it is doing.

Let's make the lists. Feel free to add things I might have missed...

The good (only two, but two that really matter)
- Earnings have and are forecast to be strong
- Stocks are going up

The bad
- 10yr UST is nearing 4.5% (when people ask about lower rates, this is one that matters and is controlled by the market)
- Oil over $100/brl
- War with Iran has no clear end and it is affecting input costs (fertilizer prices up 50%, Polyethylene up 20%, Aluminum up 15%)
- Inflation CPI was 3.8% with core at 2.8%, and rising, causing real wage growth to turn negative. Electricity up 6%. Consumer sentiment at all-time lows
- S&P is rich, trading at 27x 2025 earnings and 23x 2026 forward. Growth is good so easy to overlook, but still expensive.
- The entire economy is driven predominantly by the AI theme. All areas other than energy are pretty lackluster. People are starting to push back against all these new datacenters. To jump back to earnings, it is a bit of accounting magic for these companies. One company sells something and gets to account for all the income today. The other company buys or builds something and the expense gets to be spread over years. This is normal, but when it is concentrated in a single area it makes me nervous. Everyone will keep dancing as long as the music is playing. What makes the music stop is the question.
- S&P severely overbought on a daily (RSI over 75) and weekly (70) basis. Very often a sign of a slightly pullback to come to reset.
- In the recent rise (May) trading volumes have been weak, signally it is the algos trading versus each other. Often I can't figure out what they are trading on - but that may be a 'Me' problem. We seem to be in an environment where good news is good news and bad news is good news. That will adjust at some point.
- Layoffs in tech are the tip-of-iceberg problem. New weekly unemployment claims are still near 200k but the new estimated for adding jobs per month is only 30k. Most layoffs come in recessions, these are not. And most layoffs don't result in a jump in stock prices, these are. That monster feeds itself.


Yeah, I am concerned. But until I see people start heading for the exit I will just sit on my hands.

 

[406dn]

Yeah, I am concerned. But until I see people start heading for the exit I will just sit on my hands.

One of Warren Buffet's tenets is that the best time to buy, is when everyone else is heading for the exits, easier said than done.

 

[Irrelevant]

Professionals are paid to worry about everything. Everyone should remember that when they talk with their advisor. I also don't adjust my portfolio much. That may seem unusual, but it works. I also think sitting on my hands is often the best choice, particularly when I can't explain why the market is doing what it is doing.

Let's make the lists. Feel free to add things I might have missed...

The good (only two, but two that really matter)
- Earnings have and are forecast to be strong
- Stocks are going up

The bad
- 10yr UST is nearing 4.5% (when people ask about lower rates, this is one that matters and is controlled by the market)
- Oil over $100/brl
- War with Iran has no clear end and it is affecting input costs (fertilizer prices up 50%, Polyethylene up 20%, Aluminum up 15%)
- Inflation CPI was 3.8% with core at 2.8%, and rising, causing real wage growth to turn negative. Electricity up 6%. Consumer sentiment at all-time lows
- S&P is rich, trading at 27x 2025 earnings and 23x 2026 forward. Growth is good so easy to overlook, but still expensive.
- The entire economy is driven predominantly by the AI theme. All areas other than energy are pretty lackluster. People are starting to push back against all these new datacenters. To jump back to earnings, it is a bit of accounting magic for these companies. One company sells something and gets to account for all the income today. The other company buys or builds something and the expense gets to be spread over years. This is normal, but when it is concentrated in a single area it makes me nervous. Everyone will keep dancing as long as the music is playing. What makes the music stop is the question.
- S&P severely overbought on a daily (RSI over 75) and weekly (70) basis. Very often a sign of a slightly pullback to come to reset.
- In the recent rise (May) trading volumes have been weak, signally it is the algos trading versus each other. Often I can't figure out what they are trading on - but that may be a 'Me' problem. We seem to be in an environment where good news is good news and bad news is good news. That will adjust at some point.
- Layoffs in tech are the tip-of-iceberg problem. New weekly unemployment claims are still near 200k but the new estimated for adding jobs per month is only 30k. Most layoffs come in recessions, these are not. And most layoffs don't result in a jump in stock prices, these are. That monster feeds itself.


Yeah, I am concerned. But until I see people start heading for the exit I will just sit on my hands.

“When will I get credit for having created, with No Inflation, perhaps the Greatest Economy in the History of our Country?” -Trump, dec. 2025

 

[noharleyyet]

Professionals are paid to worry about everything. Everyone should remember that when they talk with their advisor. I also don't adjust my portfolio much. That may seem unusual, but it works. I also think sitting on my hands is often the best choice, particularly when I can't explain why the market is doing what it is doing.

Let's make the lists. Feel free to add things I might have missed...

The good (only two, but two that really matter)
- Earnings have and are forecast to be strong
- Stocks are going up

The bad
- 10yr UST is nearing 4.5% (when people ask about lower rates, this is one that matters and is controlled by the market)
- Oil over $100/brl
- War with Iran has no clear end and it is affecting input costs (fertilizer prices up 50%, Polyethylene up 20%, Aluminum up 15%)
- Inflation CPI was 3.8% with core at 2.8%, and rising, causing real wage growth to turn negative. Electricity up 6%. Consumer sentiment at all-time lows
- S&P is rich, trading at 27x 2025 earnings and 23x 2026 forward. Growth is good so easy to overlook, but still expensive.
- The entire economy is driven predominantly by the AI theme. All areas other than energy are pretty lackluster. People are starting to push back against all these new datacenters. To jump back to earnings, it is a bit of accounting magic for these companies. One company sells something and gets to account for all the income today. The other company buys or builds something and the expense gets to be spread over years. This is normal, but when it is concentrated in a single area it makes me nervous. Everyone will keep dancing as long as the music is playing. What makes the music stop is the question.
- S&P severely overbought on a daily (RSI over 75) and weekly (70) basis. Very often a sign of a slightly pullback to come to reset.
- In the recent rise (May) trading volumes have been weak, signally it is the algos trading versus each other. Often I can't figure out what they are trading on - but that may be a 'Me' problem. We seem to be in an environment where good news is good news and bad news is good news. That will adjust at some point.
- Layoffs in tech are the tip-of-iceberg problem. New weekly unemployment claims are still near 200k but the new estimated for adding jobs per month is only 30k. Most layoffs come in recessions, these are not. And most layoffs don't result in a jump in stock prices, these are. That monster feeds itself.


Yeah, I am concerned. But until I see people start heading for the exit I will just sit on my hands.

 

[Flatrock]

Professionals are paid to worry about everything. Everyone should remember that when they talk with their advisor. I also don't adjust my portfolio much. That may seem unusual, but it works. I also think sitting on my hands is often the best choice, particularly when I can't explain why the market is doing what it is doing.

Let's make the lists. Feel free to add things I might have missed...

The good (only two, but two that really matter)
- Earnings have and are forecast to be strong
- Stocks are going up

I don't have an advisor but if I did, I wouldn't want one worrying about everything. I'd want one that puts me in the right mix for me of stocks, bonds and maybe a little other stuff and leave things alone. The market has been positive 17 of the last 20 years. I don't want to look for reasons to fight that. Maybe you're coming at that from a different angle though. IMO, the only reason a person should scale back on their stock allocation is if they think a recession is coming and a bad bear market.

Your good list I agree with and is mostly all that matters IMO. Especially the first one. Earnings are king. The bad list items could for sure knock the market down 5-10% but overall, I just don't think they matter that much for the market. 10 years ago, that list would have had me worried as hell but not now. If I thought it could put us into recession, then I would be super concerned but I don't.

 

[LopeHunter]

Don't count your chickens....

Virginia court tosses Democratic map, dealing blow to party’s midterm hopes | Reuters https://share.google/yj4HNaWnRAsCfeSAQ

$5 gas is hitting a lot of blue collar types, workers and employers, that are driving those big ol’ vehicles around to spin wrenches and fix things. Farmers use a lot of diesel and fertilizer.

I rarely see huge flags flapping from the back of lifted trucks honking their horns and rolling coal these days.

Voter turnout in rural areas could be down compared to midterms in the first Trump term. Enthusiasm ebbs while waiting for economic gains in these households which in turn impacts statewide races in purple states and House races in purple districts.

Sure, our stock market has done quite well but the rural economy performance does not parallel the stock market. A lot of $5 fuel is burned on the roads to get goods to rural areas.

No viable chance either political party attains 2/3 vote needed in the Senate to convict a sitting President. Meanwhile, Presidential pardons are a powerful tool to flatten the witness list except when the person is facing state charges.

Diddy and Maxwell are hoping to be included in the upcoming 250 Presidential pardons to “celebrate” America’s 250th. I have my popcorn ready for when that list is announced.

 

[SAJ-99]

the only reason a person should scale back on their stock allocation is if they think a recession is coming and a bad bear market.

Sure, but 1) you should reduce stocks holding as you age and 2) if you know the person that sees a recession coming please introduce me.