Anybody Buying Yet? Where’s the Bottom?

[npaden]

Just harvested some losses for tax purposes. Completely out of crypto now for a little while. Might buy some BTC and ETH back but they have been pretty stable for a while so I don't see the rush to get back in right now.

 

[SAJ-99]

I put a buy order at $7.50 a while back and it never filled. Been watching it go up ever since. Good trade for you!

You must have put in a day order rather than GTC (Good til canceled). It traded with a 6 handle in late October, and was below $7.5 in early November. Last 8 days it has rocketed. Any idea why? I can't find news.

 

[BigHornRam]

You must have put in a day order rather than GTC (Good til canceled). It traded with a 6 handle in late October, and was below $7.5 in early November. Last 8 days it has rocketed. Any idea why? I can't find news.

I put in a day order. Thought about chasing it some but didn't. Wasn't a big order, just buying something with recent dividends that were deposited in my account. Rising stock price probably due to falling lithium prices. @jabber playing with house money now!

 

[Sytes]

@jabber playing with house money now!

As good as it gets in the Stock market.

 

[Nickman123]

It'll be up to 8 weeks of vacation time per year by the time I hit retirement age... Seems like you got a little salty and missed the whole point and context of my post.

I was responding to @wllm saying that he didn't know anyone his age in government work and their thoughts on sick time. I provided all that information to convey that sick time in government work is a part of the overall compensation package. The pension and health care go along with that as well. It's all a part of what makes up for the pay that's often significantly less that what would be offered in the "the real world" (as you so elegantly put it).

In my opinion, government sick time is multi-purpose: short term paid leave for acute illness, banked longterm for critical illness, and if you never use it then you get a big paycheck when you retire. I don't know anyone that abuses their sick leave but I do know guys that got cancer, broken bones, surgery, etc that really appreciated the ability to use their careers worth of sick leave to take months off work to recover and still be able to pay their bills and feed their families.

When the job's starting salary is poverty level, compensation needs to come from somewhere or no one will do it...

Didn't mean to be so salty. Been a small business owner for 25 years so the discussion of paid time off, particularly sick time hit a nerve.

The sick time discussion, I believe, started in reference to the possible rail strike. From what I've read, the rail workers make very good money and benefits, including very generous scheduled time off (vacation). They were even given a 24% pay raise on top of what they already make. They simply do not get paid for days they miss that aren't scheduled in advance. This is what they are threatening to strike over. According to the Railroads, it is simply too difficult and expensive to provide last minute coverage for people who call in "sick" right before their shift. So they do not pay for such occurrences to disincentivize it. As a business owner, I 100% sympathize with the railroads. I'm sure there are some jobs that don't require the person to be there, doing what they do every day for the business to operate, but that is not most jobs. In most jobs, if someone doesn't show, you either find a sub, make everyone else work harder to pickup the slack, or let your customers suffer. Either that, or you just keep your business overstaffed at all times in case people don't show for work. Hence the rant earlier in the thread from the Olive Garden manager. If he starts a gofundme, I will send him money. He is my new hero.
For the railroads, it has to be particularly tough. You don't call a temp service and get a trained railroad engineer.
In my company, my employees get a certain number of paid days off that they use for vacation or sick, just like your wife. At end of year, they get paid for what they don't use. Again, this is to try to deincentivize calling in sick.

On a side note, here in California, no government workers start at poverty level. Teachers make 100k and up, cops and fireman make 100 to 200k, and various other city, county, state workers do very well. There is no trade off between good benefits in government vs higher pay in private sector. I strongly encouraged my kids to get jobs with the government because it's extremely tough to beat in the private sector. But, I will concede that california is run by idiots and it may be very different in other states.

 

[rogerthat]

Didn't mean to be so salty. Been a small business owner for 25 years so the discussion of paid time off, particularly sick time hit a nerve.

The sick time discussion, I believe, started in reference to the possible rail strike. From what I've read, the rail workers make very good money and benefits, including very generous scheduled time off (vacation). They were even given a 24% pay raise on top of what they already make. They simply do not get paid for days they miss that aren't scheduled in advance. This is what they are threatening to strike over. According to the Railroads, it is simply too difficult and expensive to provide last minute coverage for people who call in "sick" right before their shift. So they do not pay for such occurrences to disincentivize it. As a business owner, I 100% sympathize with the railroads. I'm sure there are some jobs that don't require the person to be there, doing what they do every day for the business to operate, but that is not most jobs. In most jobs, if someone doesn't show, you either find a sub, make everyone else work harder to pickup the slack, or let your customers suffer. Either that, or you just keep your business overstaffed at all times in case people don't show for work. Hence the rant earlier in the thread from the Olive Garden manager. If he starts a gofundme, I will send him money. He is my new hero.
For the railroads, it has to be particularly tough. You don't call a temp service and get a trained railroad engineer.
In my company, my employees get a certain number of paid days off that they use for vacation or sick, just like your wife. At end of year, they get paid for what they don't use. Again, this is to try to deincentivize calling in sick.

On a side note, here in California, no government workers start at poverty level. Teachers make 100k and up, cops and fireman make 100 to 200k, and various other city, county, state workers do very well. There is no trade off between good benefits in government vs higher pay in private sector. I strongly encouraged my kids to get jobs with the government because it's extremely tough to beat in the private sector. But, I will concede that california is run by idiots and it may be very different in other states.

Holy chit those salaries are insane. But I suppose the cost of living sucks too. But yeah those salaries are not normal nationwide for govt

 

[AvidIndoorsman]

Holy chit those salaries are insane. But I suppose the cost of living sucks too. But yeah those salaries are not normal nationwide for govt

Not really that crazy and to your point COL.

A $120-150k salary puts someone right at 50th percentile for earning, 50th percentile in Montana is something like $48k…

There are some police and firefighter hire ups in the Bay Area making ~$370k but again that doesn’t even put them into the top 10%.

Didn't mean to be so salty. Been a small business owner for 25 years so the discussion of paid time off, particularly sick time hit a nerve.

The sick time discussion, I believe, started in reference to the possible rail strike. From what I've read, the rail workers make very good money and benefits, including very generous scheduled time off (vacation). They were even given a 24% pay raise on top of what they already make. They simply do not get paid for days they miss that aren't scheduled in advance. This is what they are threatening to strike over. According to the Railroads, it is simply too difficult and expensive to provide last minute coverage for people who call in "sick" right before their shift. So they do not pay for such occurrences to disincentivize it. As a business owner, I 100% sympathize with the railroads. I'm sure there are some jobs that don't require the person to be there, doing what they do every day for the business to operate, but that is not most jobs. In most jobs, if someone doesn't show, you either find a sub, make everyone else work harder to pickup the slack, or let your customers suffer. Either that, or you just keep your business overstaffed at all times in case people don't show for work. Hence the rant earlier in the thread from the Olive Garden manager. If he starts a gofundme, I will send him money. He is my new hero.
For the railroads, it has to be particularly tough. You don't call a temp service and get a trained railroad engineer.
In my company, my employees get a certain number of paid days off that they use for vacation or sick, just like your wife. At end of year, they get paid for what they don't use. Again, this is to try to deincentivize calling in sick.

On a side note, here in California, no government workers start at poverty level. Teachers make 100k and up, cops and fireman make 100 to 200k, and various other city, county, state workers do very well. There is no trade off between good benefits in government vs higher pay in private sector. I strongly encouraged my kids to get jobs with the government because it's extremely tough to beat in the private sector. But, I will concede that california is run by idiots and it may be very different in other states.

Everyone gets 7 days of sick time a year, everyone has to do 7 days of backup coverage where you have to go in, your hosing your fellow employees if you call in so that kinda incentivizes you to only do it when it’s actually necessary. Obviously more expensive than nothing as the employer is paying double when someone calls in sick, but not particularly difficult to implement.

 

[SAJ-99]

Right on time. Weak CPI print this am, Fed up next. Talk for 2023 will be where inflation and rates settle. Put your guess in. Fed's job gets harder with every market run like this morning's. 10yr yield down 15bps, so good for house buyers. But US treasury rates still too volatile for comfort. I still expect 50bps increase and the Fed to stay with tough talk. Consequently, I might look to reduce some long trading exposures today.

 

[rogerthat]

Right on time. Weak CPI print this am, Fed up next. Talk for 2023 will be where inflation and rates settle. Put your guess in. Fed's job gets harder with every market run like this morning's. 10yr yield down 15bps, so good for house buyers. But US treasury rates still too volatile for comfort. I still expect 50bps increase and the Fed to stay with tough talk. Consequently, I might look to reduce some long trading exposures today.

I agree with your thoughts. Getting inflation down from 9 to 6-7 is the easy part. Where it’s going to get sticky is trying to get to target. I think that is going to take much longer than what’s priced into the market at current levels.

 

[BigHornRam]

Holy chit those salaries are insane. But I suppose the cost of living sucks too. But yeah those salaries are not normal nationwide for govt

Closer to the hog trough, the better the salaries working for .gov

Richest Counties In The U.S.

We’re looking at the straight-up richest counties in the U.S. Find out which counties have the highest incomes in the country.

www.forbes.com

 

[SAJ-99]

I agree with your thoughts. Getting inflation down from 9 to 6-7 is the easy part. Where it’s going to get sticky is trying to get to target. I think that is going to take much longer than what’s priced into the market at current levels.

There is a large camp that agrees with you that inflation will remain high. However, inflation the last 5 months is running 2.5% annualized. All the short term rates are well over that, so real yields are positive. Every rate rise from here will have a stronger impact than the last. Market is now pricing in a Fed Funds rate stopping at about 5% (current is 4%). That is way too low if inflation turns back up and gets sticky at your range of 6-7%.

 

[Gr8bawana]

 

[rogerthat]

There is a large camp that agrees with you that inflation will remain high. However, inflation the last 5 months is running 2.5% annualized. All the short term rates are well over that, so real yields are positive. Every rate rise from here will have a stronger impact than the last. Market is now pricing in a Fed Funds rate stopping at about 5% (current is 4%). That is way too low if inflation turns back up and gets sticky at your range of 6-7%.

To clarify I think it will be sticky in the 4-5% range not 6-7% range. I think the way this plays out is that eventually the fed throws the towel in and accepts a higher rate of inflation. But we are a long way from that point. I’m liking the market action in fixed income assets. I think they will bottom out or have already well before stocks.

 

[CorkyM]

It would be nice if Powell would knock it off.

 

[longbow51]

Didn't mean to be so salty. Been a small business owner for 25 years so the discussion of paid time off, particularly sick time hit a nerve.

The sick time discussion, I believe, started in reference to the possible rail strike. From what I've read, the rail workers make very good money and benefits, including very generous scheduled time off (vacation). They were even given a 24% pay raise on top of what they already make. They simply do not get paid for days they miss that aren't scheduled in advance. This is what they are threatening to strike over. According to the Railroads, it is simply too difficult and expensive to provide last minute coverage for people who call in "sick" right before their shift. So they do not pay for such occurrences to disincentivize it. As a business owner, I 100% sympathize with the railroads. I'm sure there are some jobs that don't require the person to be there, doing what they do every day for the business to operate, but that is not most jobs. In most jobs, if someone doesn't show, you either find a sub, make everyone else work harder to pickup the slack, or let your customers suffer. Either that, or you just keep your business overstaffed at all times in case people don't show for work. Hence the rant earlier in the thread from the Olive Garden manager. If he starts a gofundme, I will send him money. He is my new hero.
For the railroads, it has to be particularly tough. You don't call a temp service and get a trained railroad engineer.
In my company, my employees get a certain number of paid days off that they use for vacation or sick, just like your wife. At end of year, they get paid for what they don't use. Again, this is to try to deincentivize calling in sick.

On a side note, here in California, no government workers start at poverty level. Teachers make 100k and up, cops and fireman make 100 to 200k, and various other city, county, state workers do very well. There is no trade off between good benefits in government vs higher pay in private sector. I strongly encouraged my kids to get jobs with the government because it's extremely tough to beat in the private sector. But, I will concede that california is run by idiots and it may be very different in other states.

It is sometimes hard to look at government workers who never worked an honest 40 hour week in their lives get lifetime pensions financed by many who don't have pensions.

Kind of like the student loan deal. Pipefitters paying off lawyer loans.

Don't like the royalty/peasant stuff.

 

[rogerthat]

It is sometimes hard to look at government workers who never worked an honest 40 hour week in their lives get lifetime pensions financed by many who don't have pensions.

Kind of like the student loan deal. Pipefitters paying off lawyer loans.

Don't like the royalty/peasant stuff.

Most of the lifetime pensions I know about in government went the way of the dodo bird 15 years ago. They were generally insolvent. Most Federal government workers now a days have a fairly small pension that needs to be supplemented by a defined contribution plan invested in the stock market like a 401k.

The legend of the lazy ass gubmint worker is generally just that…legend.

 

[noharleyyet]

 

[SAJ-99]

To clarify I think it will be sticky in the 4-5% range not 6-7% range. I think the way this plays out is that eventually the fed throws the towel in and accepts a higher rate of inflation. But we are a long way from that point. I’m liking the market action in fixed income assets. I think they will bottom out or have already well before stocks.

Quite possible, but I really have no idea. Historically inflation isn't exactly stable number. I laugh at the concept of the Fed even having a target. They won't stop until we see jobs data getting weak.

 

[BigHornRam]

View attachment 255639

So how about a $99 NFT?

Donald Trump’s 'major announcement': He’s selling $99 digital trading cards in his likeness

The former president reveals the sales site for an NFT collection that depicts him as a superhero, John Wayne-like cowboy, Nascar driver and more

www.yahoo.com

 

[SAJ-99]

So how about a $99 NFT?

Donald Trump’s 'major announcement': He’s selling $99 digital trading cards in his likeness

The former president reveals the sales site for an NFT collection that depicts him as a superhero, John Wayne-like cowboy, Nascar driver and more

www.yahoo.com

Cons gonna con.