Anybody Buying Yet? Where’s the Bottom?

[SAJ-99]

Here are some of my notes for the coming weeks

- Tax loss selling seems to be done. It appears to get earlier every year, but in down years (like 2022) some of the indicators get wonky. For the rest of the Dec, maybe we see (have seen?) some rotational positioning by FAs into a 2023 view, bumping up sold-off sectors?
- Inflation still seems to be market focus. PPI this week and CPI the following on the 13th. So Fed will get to see the CPI number and market reaction before announcement. For Fed meeting Expectations sit at 75% for 50bps increase, 25% for 75bps. I expect the CPI should continue its downward trend, but anything is possible. Hotter than expected and all hell breaks loose.
- Sentiment around equities has taken a decidedly positive tone. Even the dip from a hot jobs number got bought. Still a lot of talk of a recession in 2023, but earnings projections for 2023 still 5% higher than 2022 (which is on pace for a all-time record), and we are still at 17.5 times forward 2023 earnings in large caps. Mid and small much better at 13.5 and 13.0, respectively.
- Option positioning looks tilted to calls for Qtrly Dec expiration with heavy volume puts farther out of the money. This means positive hedging flows for next week but should end around the 14th (Fed day! day after CPI! ).
- Bonds yields drawing interest from investors, resulting in defensive stocks (utilities and staples) looking expensive going into 2023.
- S&P sits just above 200day mov avg, tech just below. S&P is edging toward overbought on daily basis, but weekly numbers are still fine. We seem to be at a breakout/breakdown point for SPY. Interesting how it happens around a Fed day and CPI. Low December stock volumes and VIX at 19 seem to show investors have little interest in making a bet something breaks and rather want to coast into the New Year.

 

[BigHornRam]

Gold hoarding has begun.

Central Banks Continue To Stock Up On Gold | OilPrice.com

Central banks have added another 31 tons of gold, bringing total gold holdings to the highest level since 1974

oilprice.com

"Bullion does have one crucial advantage: unlike bonds, it doesn’t bind you into a relationship with an unreliable counterparty. … In a world where you can trust no one, it makes sense to bulletproof yourself with metal.”

 

[Sytes]

Interesting development on busting the monopoly side of mega companies.

"Big Tech appears to be in for a rude awakening as the Federal Trade Commission flexes its muscles under the leadership of Lina Khan. The antitrust enforcer has voted 3-1 to block Microsoft's (MSFT) $69B deal for game developer Activision Blizzard (ATVI), making waves across the industry. The decision is a clear sign that Khan and her team at the FTC will be more aggressive in cracking down on the biggest U.S. tech giants, who frequently grow their influence or fight off upcoming challengers via acquisition.

What are the concerns? Simply put, the FTC feels that the tie-up between Microsoft - the company behind Xbox - and one of the best known game developers could harm competition. Activision's Call of Duty and World of Warcraft are some of the most popular gaming franchises, and turning Microsoft into the No. 3 gaming company in the world could limit rivals' access to titles or raise prices for other gaming platforms. The FTC also said it would give the Xbox maker an unfair advantage in the new market for game subscriptions, as well as the emerging market for cloud gaming.

Microsoft has gone to great lengths in recent days and weeks to assuage the fears, like inking a deal to bring Call of Duty to Nintendo (OTCPK:NTDOY) for the next decade. A similar offer to Sony (SONY) on same-day access to the game on its PlayStation platform has so far been rebuffed, but the Xbox maker remains "committed to helping bring more games to more people - however they choose to play." Microsoft President Brad Smith has also been spotted in Washington, meeting with lawmakers to argue that the deal would "create more opportunities for gamers and game developers."

Go deeper: The U.S. is not the only jurisdiction where Microsoft might have to fight, as the transaction is also seeing in-depth reviews in Europe and the U.K. While the company initially took the concessions route, it now looks like it will be presenting its case in court. Prepare for a drawn-out battle that might include precedent of so-called vertical deals, whether withholding games from platforms would be profitable and whether Microsoft has made good on its past promises. The tech giant has also been in the antitrust spotlight before in a landmark DOJ suit from 1998, which saw Microsoft agree to modify some of its business practices."

Credit article:

Stock Picks, Stock Market Investing

seekingalpha.com

 

[AvidIndoorsman]

Hard to imagine working for a company who does not offer SL as part of their benefits.

Our agreement between management and employee (CBA) and also based on OPM directive:
After 72hrs, a request by management may be made for a letter from Doctor. *Exception: Documented prior or substantiated concern of abuse.

Reality, it's not simply a physical injury or Illness. SL may be used as, family sick leave (FSL). Heck, a key component of today: Stress due to any number of life's situations. This is a valid use of SL, in the wake of mental illness. In the LEO world, mental illness has gained significant traction vs the taboo of the past due to the increased suicide rate, nationally.

A person's not restricted to their bedroom/house for "stress" related use of SL.

Example (extreme): A person walking his / her dog, playing ball, hunting, fishing, golf, etc spotted by a manager and reported. Employee's advised to bring a medical letter prior to the 72hr rule. The employee may assert his/her "request" for review by a designated [Agency] medical consultant as a manager holds no professional capability to evaluate medical related correspondence. It's valid for the manager to report the observation, valid to request medical letter, AND valid to use days to unwind from stress. Same as with the flu. Certain medical means to overcome the illness as with mental illness. You don't need to see a doctor over the flu nor do you need to see a doctor/psychologist over stress.

SL is a value necessary to the employee and family. Private or Government, it's all about negotiations during interviews and Union / Management negotiated CBAs...

As Hank mentions above, this is COMMON practice to use SL to close out time until retired. It's hours earned - How is that a valid use of SL for sake of conversation? However, it IS used for most all on the last months towards retirement. Need a Doc note? Sure, maybe... occasionally. Obtainable? 100%.

I’ve never had any sick leave, my wife has never had any sick leave.

What you describe seems pretty anachronistic if I’m being honest, it’s more common among my peers to have unlimited PTO/Sick leave than any kind of accrual system.

I don’t know many people my age in Government so that likely skews my perspective.

 

[Nameless Range]

I’ve never had any sick leave, my wife has never had any sick leave.

What you describe seems pretty anachronistic if I’m being honest, it’s more common among my peers to have unlimited PTO/Sick leave than any kind of accrual system.

I don’t know many people my age in Government so that likely skews my perspective.

That’s interesting. There’s a fair amount of research out there that when folks have unlimited PTO, they actually take less time off on average than those who accrue leave-hours above a certain amount. From what I’ve read, if one with unlimited PTO isn’t intentional with their vacations and time off, the “unlimited” aspect can be a disadvantage. Probably largely dependent on the individual, their management, etc.

The smoke and mirrors of unlimited paid time off

Having as much holiday as you want? Sounds great – until it’s not.

www.bbc.com

I accrue 144 hours of vacation annually and it rolls, along with 96 hours a year of sick Leave. I also stack a lot of comp-time on that. It feels like a good deal and plenty, but I’d be curious what people think is the right amount.

I do think unlimited PTO is the future, particularly in tech-based and/or big companies, but I have a fair amount of friends our age in the private sector who work for small businesses who get 5,7,9 days off a year.To me, that’s not enough.

 

[AvidIndoorsman]

That’s interesting. There’s a fair amount of research out there that when folks have unlimited PTO, they actually take less time off on average than those who accrue leave-hours above a certain amount. From what I’ve read, if one with unlimited PTO isn’t intentional with their vacations and time off, the “unlimited” aspect can be a disadvantage. Probably largely dependent on the individual, their management, etc.

The smoke and mirrors of unlimited paid time off

Having as much holiday as you want? Sounds great – until it’s not.

www.bbc.com

I accrue 144 hours of vacation annually and it rolls, along with 96 hours a year of sick Leave. I also stack a lot of comp-time on that. It feels like a good deal and plenty, but I’d be curious what people think is the right amount.

I do think unlimited PTO is the future, particularly in tech-based and/or big companies, but I have a fair amount of friends our age in the private sector who work for small businesses who get 5,7,9 days off a year.To me, that’s not enough.

Oh I think boomers had sweet jobs where they had great PTO programs then got to be the boss and hosed their Gen X/millennial/Z employees with unlimited PTO schemes.

It’s a total scam… but it’s also becoming the norm as boomers try to suck the last marrow out of life.


^sarcasm winky boomers, mostly kidding

 

[BigHornRam]

Oh I think boomers had sweet jobs where they had great PTO programs then got to be the boss and hosed their Gen X/millennial/Z employees with unlimited PTO schemes.

It’s a total scam… but it’s also becoming the norm as boomers try to suck the last marrow out of life.


^sarcasm winky boomers, mostly kidding

See if SBF is hiring @wllm . He'll probably let you cry on his shoulder.

 

[Sytes]

I’ve never had any sick leave, my wife has never had any sick leave.

What you describe seems pretty anachronistic if I’m being honest, it’s more common among my peers to have unlimited PTO/Sick leave than any kind of accrual system.

I don’t know many people my age in Government so that likely skews my perspective.

The specified SL earned is different than PTO, in general. SL is not management discretion whether the employee is able to use or not. If family or self is, "sick" SL is available. Whether old fashioned or not, it's a solid line drawn between management and employee - and management use, for that matter.

To add: typically, in a CBA setting - depending on the mutual agreement, there are 5 weeks for employees to bid, based on seniority. After that, it's an ADHoc setting. if staffing for that day is available, it's a first come, first serve. PTO in general (or Annual Leave) is not a free for all, any time use.

 

[SAJ-99]

I’ve never had any sick leave, my wife has never had any sick leave.

What you describe seems pretty anachronistic if I’m being honest, it’s more common among my peers to have unlimited PTO/Sick leave than any kind of accrual system.

I don’t know many people my age in Government so that likely skews my perspective.

PTO/sick time evolved over my professional career of 30yrs. In a white collar desk job, so that may have something to do with it. Typically you start at 3wks (called vacation then) and earn more with years of service. Sick time was 3-5 days. It morphed to PTO which was just a combo of the two (vaca and sick). It could accrue and carry over, but I had an employer that stopped that and forced you to take them (use it or lose it). Something about the size of the liability on the balance sheet because it had to be paid out, which is nonsense. So the last week of December work was a ghost town.

To @Nameless Range point, there was also a lot of studies that say Americans work too much. So fits with not taking unlimited PTO. Compare US to what Canadians have or Europeans, which that is government mandated. Europeans basically get the month of August off. Again though, these are desk jobs. Nothing like a train engineer where you have to be at a point, at a time or stuff doesn’t move. I think they should have some way to take off time, especially in case of lengthy emergency. Probably keeps them in the job longer.

 

[TOGIE]

my first real job after college was an engineering consulting firm.

starting on my first day i had zero days of pto and i accrued 7.5 days or something over the first 12 months.

i started just before the holidays and could take no extra time off to hang out with family, i missed a lot of really fun fishing, backpacking, and float trips in montana and wyoming my friends went on that next summer. we'll never have that kind of time again to do those things, we were all single and freshly out of college, still not a care in the world.

i was slowly turning into a CAD monkey...

i left that job literally as soon as i found another one that would take me.

i think most places have figured out that's how not to do it if you want to keep new young employees that turn into dedicated employees. but a lot have still not figured it out.

 

[AvidIndoorsman]

in a CBA setting

My point is things have changed, not that it worse or better, just that change has occurred.

It feels like a good deal and plenty, but I’d be curious what people think is the right amount.

Personally, I think that 3-4 weeks + government holidays so let's say 10 more days annually meaning ~25-30 days is kinda perfect .

IMHO vacation shouldn't accrue use it or lose it, sick leave should be 0/unlimited. So no sick days given contractually or accrued, but if you are actually sick/need to deal with family stuff then however long you need no note required.

Practically I think this perfect scenario probably doesn't work beyond small companies and/or with responsible employees, clearly ripe for abuse.

Also some jobs just have to be done a certain way and those working in those jobs need to understand that's what they signed up for, and employers in those fields need to understand that employees are human and need to build in contingencies.

Train Engineers should have sick leave and their employers should have back up programs. MDs have a similar level responsibility in that you can't just not have a MD on the floor, there is a back up system if someone has to take sick leave someone comes in, during the pandemic when stuff was nuts hospitals went to a double backup system.

 

[BigHornRam]

Twitter and CNN are laying people off and the NYT is on strike. How are we going to get the news that is fit to print anymore?

New York Times journalists stage historic 24-hour strike after management and union fail to reach deal | CNN Business

A 24-hour strike at The New York Times, a historic demonstration in which more than 1,100 employees are expected to participate, began Thursday at midnight, after management and the union representing staffers failed to reach an agreement for a new contract after more than a year and a half of...

www.cnn.com

 

[Sytes]

My point is things have changed, not that it worse or better, just that change has occurred.

I agree. My point is, I believe unions are a necessity in our regulated American economic setting. While the capitalistic ideals drive America, we are regulated. With that, organized employee strength is as necessary as management is to a successful business.

I believe employees should have the option to be involved (dues paying) or not without employer/union repercussions for their decision.

 

[BigHornRam]

Musk is even purging old experienced guys for no apparent reason. That is not right. Age discrimination!

Who is Jim Baker, former top FBI lawyer, fired by Elon Musk over ‘Twitter Files’?

Elon Musk said that Jim Baker, Twitter Inc’s deputy general counsel, was sacked from the tech giant over his potential role in the ‘suppression of information important to the public dialogue’. Who is the lawyer?

www.firstpost.com

 

[AvidIndoorsman]

I agree. My point is, I believe unions are a necessity in our regulated American economic setting. While the capitalistic ideals drive America, we are regulated. With that, organized employee strength is as necessary as management is to a successful business.

I believe employees should have the option to be involved (dues paying) or not without employer/union repercussions for their decision.

My wife's new job is unionized. The benefits of having collective bargaining are stark, we will happily be paying dues.

 

[Irrelevant]

man... look at these sales!

 

[TOGIE]

I accrue 144 hours of vacation annually and it rolls, along with 96 hours a year of sick Leave. I also stack a lot of comp-time on that. It feels like a good deal and plenty, but I’d be curious what people think is the right amount.

i accrue at my current job. it's governmental.

i've generally been very, very anti accrual. especially when it comes to younger folks who are starting new jobs, newly married and want to have a honey moon, or having kids and want to have extra time off for their kids but are hamstrung by an accrual schedule that slaps their ass back to work.

however, i learned my job allows you to go negative and you can climb back to positive. that kinda changed my attitutde towards it, here at least.

but man, i'm only in my third year here, i've used 96 hours of time off this year and i'm still sitting on 100 hours of comp time and 163 hours of annual leave plus unlimited sick leave.

i honestly feel like i have more than enough here. even though i'm only actually accruing 12 days a year right now.

i think another primary problem with accrual is, depending on the type of person you are, it really hampers you mentally to use your time off. i want to hoard it. it's like gold, gotta hang on to it, rainy day fund type stuff.

i'd probably actually use way more if we switched to unlimited. but then if we switched suddenly i'd actually be super pissed that i was so diligent over the years keeping pto banked and then it's just wiped.

 

[westbranch]

I get 7 weeks (vacation, sick leave, everything) + 9 holidays, so 44 days annually. Can only roll over 40 hrs. Its a lot of work to use it all and still get work done.

 

[Sam Colt]

I get 7 weeks (vacation, sick leave, everything) + 9 holidays, so 44 days annually. Can only roll over 40 hrs. Its a lot of work to use it all and still get work done.

 

[SAJ-99]

I believe employees should have the option to be involved (dues paying) or not without employer/union repercussions for their decision.

Like "Right to work" laws. Funny name. They are based on the belief that most employees would rather have the money in their pocket now than representation at the table in the future. It's kind of like everyone thinking they are above-average drivers. It works, if you are the company. The studies I have seen show wages drop by around 5%.