The Hedgehog
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Stats mean nothing to me. I drew. Could care less about the rest of you.
D
Deleted member 28227
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2020 I had a 100% chance of drawing my deer tag
2021 I had an 80% chance
There was a 15.1% drop in the quota.
So for my unit, there was 4.9% increase in interest
This says 1. I really really suck at random draws 2. Meh on the the dates driving points for my unit
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Eat that $412 and go next year.
RobertD
Well-known member
My experience with math usually goes like this. Lol. I think you were on the money though
NDGuy
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How is the stain protection on those?
well they've held up to dribbled dirty chai lattes and chew spit i can tell ya that
D
Deleted member 28227
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3690 More people just bought points in 2021 than in 2020
Overall success rates, I find this interesting given that it's a pref point system. Seems like despite access to gohunt/toprut etc people have gotten way worse at picking units, applying for a tag they can draw with their point level.
2014 -40%
2015 -32%
2016 -34%
2017 -23%
2018 -22%
2019- 25%
2020 -24%
2021 -21%
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RobertD
Well-known member
Adding to the anecdotal evidence pile, I picked up my tag as a 2nd choice, it drew out as a 1st choice last year. Late season tag.
Useless but more interesting: Someone drew this tag as a 1st choice with eighteen preference points. Multiple folks grabbed it with zero. How's that for a head scratcher.
Useless but more interesting: Someone drew this tag as a 1st choice with eighteen preference points. Multiple folks grabbed it with zero. How's that for a head scratcher.
Bambistew
Well-known member
I looked up 4 NR units/hunts that I watch... all of them had creep of 3-4 points and they increased the tags by 20%. Next year won't be any better.
Its insane to me how many people have more than 10 points, and how few draw/apply. Its between 5-7% high point holders cash out each year.
TheGreek
Well-known member
Just a quick glance at the draw recap reports for 2020 and 2021 for a pair of deer units near Meeker revealed the following:
2020 3rd season: 7% of NRs drew with 0 points (so 1 point to guarantee a tag)
2021 3rd season: 10% of NRs drew with 1 point (so 2 points to guarantee a tag)
Now I don't feel bad about applying and drawing with 3 points this year.
Now for the crazy stat line:
2020 4th season: 25% of NRs drew with 10 points (so 11 points to guarantee a tag)
2021 4th season: 33% of NRs drew with 5 points!!!!!! (so 6 points to guarantee a tag)
So the points needed to draw the 4th season tag were basically cut in half while the points needed to draw the 3rd season tag only increased by 1.
I highly overestimated the expected point creep in these deer units. I figured the points required to draw the 3rd season would go from 1 to 4-6 for 2021 and instead that's what the 4th season tags went to.
2020 3rd season: 7% of NRs drew with 0 points (so 1 point to guarantee a tag)
2021 3rd season: 10% of NRs drew with 1 point (so 2 points to guarantee a tag)
Now I don't feel bad about applying and drawing with 3 points this year.
Now for the crazy stat line:
2020 4th season: 25% of NRs drew with 10 points (so 11 points to guarantee a tag)
2021 4th season: 33% of NRs drew with 5 points!!!!!! (so 6 points to guarantee a tag)
So the points needed to draw the 4th season tag were basically cut in half while the points needed to draw the 3rd season tag only increased by 1.
I highly overestimated the expected point creep in these deer units. I figured the points required to draw the 3rd season would go from 1 to 4-6 for 2021 and instead that's what the 4th season tags went to.
LuketheDog
Well-known member
I got no problem with this^
RobertD
Well-known member
@wllm1313 what are some inferences we can draw from this.
Is it new western hunters flooding in and not understanding the draw systems? Or everyone getting their butt kicked by point creep/increasing applicant totals?
Anything else? Just trying to toss some ideas out, because that's really interesting
Bullshot
Well-known member
I’m out. Not doing this to myself! Good luck with that s-show. New procedures take all the fun out of it for me (as well as any real chance to get a decent tag).
67 3rd rifle which I have been chasing. In 2018 with 12 points I was in the running as 1 of 7 drew, 13 points for guaranteed. Jump to 2020, I am at 14 points and it took 17 to guarantee with 3 of 19 drawn at 16 points. Now this year, 2021, you needed 20 points for the 100% draw with 4 of 9 being drawn at 19.
In 4 years it went from needing 13 points to 20 points to draw with an increase of 5 tags overall. Point Leap. Guess I am going to have to find a new unit to chase.
In 4 years it went from needing 13 points to 20 points to draw with an increase of 5 tags overall. Point Leap. Guess I am going to have to find a new unit to chase.
rmyoung1
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Yeah, 66 has experienced something similar (only the pref point numbers are even higher). South side of the Gunnison Basin has become a target for those high point holders who have given up on units like 44.
They are
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