Wyoming NR Deer, Pronghorn and Resident Draw Results 2025

how did the special 2025 quota go up but the regular quota go down by so much?

The 40% Special quota for nr public draw, PP and Random, in 2025 was 3,303, based on the demand reports. Leftovers from both the pp and random then get pooled and added to the 60% Regular quota. There were 3,067 1st choice apps.

Regular public draw quota was 6,232, and 16,152 1st choice apps.

Pulling numbers from the 2024 NR draw database rather than demand reports, which may include landowners:
19,868 Regular applicants
2,940 Special applicants
and 1,569 youth applicants

total public apps in 2024; 24,377
total point purchases; 148,614

total point only and didn't apply for a hunt; 124,237
 
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That number is way off from what @TOGIE has in his table

Total 2025 quota was 31,655, nr initial quota is 20% (6,331).
Residents draw first, leftovers are added to our 20%. Landowners draw, leftovers are added together and split 60/40 special/regular for the nr public draw.

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I just added the quotas

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My oldest son drew a buck antelope tag for 34 in the regular with 4 points. He was on the good side of coin-flip odds.
It is absolutely crazy that unit 34 lope takes 4 points. It wasn't that long ago there were leftover tags for this very low public land unit.
 
It is absolutely crazy that unit 34 lope takes 4 points. It wasn't that long ago there were leftover tags for this very low public land unit.
Used to be my go-to second choice out my back door. Those days are gone, regardless of residency.
 
So I too summed up a couple of years of the Special Random to get an idea of the changes. I don't focus on the number of points it takes to clear. Points are like inflation, they always go up. The numbers might not be exact, but close enough for government work.
WGF has 2021 as the earliest year, so I used that.

First problem. The population remains down. No denying that has a big impact.
2021 number of tags (Quota- Special Random) was 1286.
2025 number of tags (Quota- Special Random) was 744.

Price change is driving interesting behaviors
2021 First choice - Special Random 5443
2024 First choice - Special Random 1426
2025 First choice - Special Random 2393

For unit 34
2021 13 tags 46 apps FC
2025 11 tags 18 apps FC
You guys must be in the way-way-back machine for that one. Times have changed.
 
So I too summed up a couple of years of the Special Random to get an idea of the changes. I don't focus on the number of points it takes to clear. Points are like inflation, they always go up. The numbers might not be exact, but close enough for government work.
WGF has 2021 as the earliest year, so I used that.

First problem. The population remains down. No denying that has a big impact.
2021 number of tags (Quota- Special Random) was 1286.
2025 number of tags (Quota- Special Random) was 744.

Price change is driving interesting behaviors
2021 First choice - Special Random 5443
2024 First choice - Special Random 1426
2025 First choice - Special Random 2393

For unit 34
2021 13 tags 46 apps FC
2025 11 tags 18 apps FC
You guys must be in the way-way-back machine for that one. Times have changed.

confounding factors include only showing up as an applicant in the special random if you strike out in the special PP and, additionally, as more people jump into the special PP and higher point holders jump in, fewer tags trickle to the random as well.

so, point creepers creep into the special PP draw creates more applicants in the random draw and fewer tags than maybe were before, regardless of quota changes.

that's partially why i only sum the PP draws.
 
confounding factors include only showing up as an applicant in the special random if you strike out in the special PP and, additionally, as more people jump into the special PP and higher point holders jump in, fewer tags trickle to the random as well.

so, point creepers creep into the special PP draw creates more applicants in the random draw and fewer tags than maybe were before, regardless of quota changes.

that's partially why i only sum the PP draws.

Tags don't move from the pp side to the random side during the draw; remaining pp and random special tags are combined after the special draw, added to the initial Random Draw tags and then split 75/25.
 
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confounding factors include only showing up as an applicant in the special random if you strike out in the special PP and, additionally, as more people jump into the special PP and higher point holders jump in, fewer tags trickle to the random as well.

so, point creepers creep into the special PP draw creates more applicants in the random draw and fewer tags than maybe were before, regardless of quota changes.

that's partially why i only sum the PP draws.
Reasonable to add those up, but when I look at total point holders there are more people that will never catch the number than those that will - including me it looks like. I also just didn't want to add up all those rows, particularly given the formatting issues. I'm not looking for the exact number. I'm looking at the change. Any "prediction" model is just looking at the last draw and assuming the next one will look something like that. To the point that was made, I am thinking people look at the highest odds from last year and then see the amount of public and chase units.
 
Tags don't move from the pp side to the random side during the draw; remaining pp and random special tags are combined after the special draw, added to the initial Random Draw tags and then split 75/25.

nvm, you're right. that makes sense

i was conflating the trickle down from special --> regular there
 
Try Adobe Acrobat for conversions, pdf to excel. $23.88/year and you can convert anything from WYG&F. Occasional column width snafu but it works better than anything else I have tried over the years.

View attachment 375469
Why cant Wyoming put out data in Excel like NM does? Conversion give you these crazy half columns that screw everything up:mad:
 

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