Wyoming NR Deer, Pronghorn and Resident Draw Results 2025

[HONEYBADGER]

There are some crazy moves in odds, but I don't think it is just apps services. Buzz is correct that the price isn't keeping people away. The back and forth between Reg and Spec the last few years should be an indication to other states that prices can go up. The reality for most people getting in on the points game is less than 5 pts and you get a lottery ticket with constantly changing odds.

Unit 83. (I put the unit number because of the odds numbers, not because it is good/bad whatever. Also to show the difficulty GoHunt has with predictive odds. This isn't the only unit that shows the same thing, to varying degrees.

2024 100% cleared at 2 pts in Spec PP draw, in Reg random 5 tags for 118 apps (4.23%), Spec random 3 tags 2 apps (100%).
2025 100% cleared at 9pts in Spec PP draw, in Reg Random 5 tags for 194 apps (2.58%), Spec random 3 tags 92 apps (3.26%).

Handholding services allowed people to see that unit had good odds with low points so a good chunk of those being handheld put in for it. Next year the numbers will probably drop for the inverse of this year's reason. Odds are essentially turning into what HuntinFool turned into years ago. A list of where not to apply if you want a tag.

Historical data Randy mentioned used to help with this problem but the constant changes in draw prices, structures etc have made historical data worthless as well.

 

[npaden]

I really thought last year was going to be the anomaly for the special tag with people burning built up points to move to the special and draw and be done.

Boy was I wrong. On a LOT of units there are 3 and 4 times more people applying this year than last year in the special. Unit 93 had 20 First Choice Applicants in the random last year and 126 this year!

There might be a few that went down but sure seems to be significantly more total applications for sure. If I wasn't lazy I would add them up or parse them in excel and get the actual number.

 

[Zak]

Handholding services allowed people to see that unit had good odds with low points so a good chunk of those being handheld put in for it. Next year the numbers will probably drop for the inverse of this year's reason. Odds are essentially turning into what HuntinFool turned into years ago. A list of where not to apply if you want a tag.

Historical data Randy mentioned used to help with this problem but the constant changes in draw prices, structures etc have made historical data worthless as well.

Makes sense in my case, I applied for the same unit for 5+ years and decided to apply for a unit 2pts lower this year just so I could burn my points. This 'lesser' unit crept up 2+ points so now it's even higher than the original unit I was applying for.

What's ironic is that when I started putting in for draws, I thought WY antelope would be my first western hunting experience. In reality I've drawn in almost every state except WY.

 

[npaden]

I couldn't help myself and added them up. In the special draw there were 2,119 1,422 first choice applicants that made it to the random draw in 2024 vs. 2,423 in 2025. An increase of 14.3% 70.4%! I guess there was a bunch of shifting around as well as a general increase in total applications.

In the regular draw there were 16,997 first choice applicants that made it to the random draw in 2024 vs. 18,796 in 2025. An increase of 10.6%.

Another way to look at it is that 11.1% of the random first choice applications were in the special pool in 2024 and 11.4% in 2025.

EDIT - SA-99 caught a big error in my 2024 special draw numbers. I had just quickly added it up and had a 7 and a 15 that I missed hitting return on and so it went in as 715 instead of 7+15 = 22. BIG change to the numbers! That's a 70% increase in the special draw this year over last year!

 

[seeth07]

I couldn't help myself and added them up. In the special draw there were 2,119 first choice applicants that made it to the random draw in 2024 vs. 2,423 in 2025. An increase of 14.3%. I guess there was a bunch of shifting around as well as a general increase in total applications.

In the regular draw there were 16,997 first choice applicants that made it to the random draw in 2024 vs. 18,796 in 2025. An increase of 10.6%.

Another way to look at it is that 11.1% of the random first choice applications were in the special pool in 2024 and 11.4% in 2025.

I think it was @Big Fin that has shared the total number of "point buyers" before and I'm afraid that this observed trend is only going to continue as this vast pool of point buyers only are now going to be entering the draws to cash them in. Increases in cost and threats of tag reductions to that group of "invested individuals" only furthers the rush of these people into the draw and thus lowering the draw odds

 

[Big Fin]

I think it was @Big Fin that has shared the total number of "point buyers" before and I'm afraid that this observed trend is only going to continue as this vast pool of point buyers only are now going to be entering the draws to cash them in. Increases in cost and threats of tag reductions to that group of "invested individuals" only furthers the rush of these people into the draw and thus lowering the draw odds

Yes. Depending on the species, there are 150K-170K point buyers who've been on the sidelines building points in Wyoming, with many having double digit points. As those people start getting off the sidelines and actually jump into the application pools, I expect the number of actual "applicants" to increase.

I've been saying this for about a dozen years, but I must not have a very effective means of getting my point across. It seems to be ignored by the majority of people who apply in Wyoming. Point being, when you have the many people stacked up from only buying points, we could see decreases in total NRs in the pool for that species, yet still have many years of point creep as those high level "point buyers" start cashing points.

If someone has a better way for me to illustrate that, I'm all ears. It applies to WY, CO, UT, and to a lesser degree in AZ.

 

[seeth07]

I've been saying this for about a dozen years, but I must not have a very effective means of getting my point across.

I may have heard it over the years from you but it wasn't until a couple years ago that I realized just how suckered in I was that if I just bought points, one day I could be at the front of the line for some of the best tags out there. Anyone that asks me if they should buy points in X state my response is simply now to just skip doing that and just apply and hope to hit something randomly. Better use of the $$$ to try and draw something now than to hope for the future.

 

[WapitiBob]

I may have heard it over the years from you but it wasn't until a couple years ago that I realized just how suckered in I was that if I just bought points, one day I could be at the front of the line for some of the best tags out there. Anyone that asks me if they should buy points in X state my response is simply now to just skip doing that and just apply and hope to hit something randomly. Better use of the $$$ to try and draw something now than to hope for the future.

Anybody that asks me is told "if you want to be assured of drawing hunts in states with points, you buy points". With that comes the caveat that if you really want to hunt, you apply for what you can draw; points don't do any good if you apply for a 10 point hunt with 5 points.
And while Randy's illustration is correct; less than half of available applicants actually apply for a draw, until those people come off the bench, we aren't competing with them for tags. WY Sheep and Moose odds show that very well.

 

[Fremont15]

Gonna be a fun fall!

 

[SAJ-99]

Couple of suggestions that will never be implemented.

1) cap points. 25 should be max. If you buy points for 25 years it's time. If you put into the draw for 25 years and don't draw, your luck is so bad should probably change hobbies. You could stop the point buying altogether and make it so you only get a point for applying. Probably cause WFG $ issues for sure.
2) you burn your points if you draw a second choice. There are some antelope units on east side that were still second choice 100% draws.

 

[TOGIE]

here's what i worked up for pronghorn:



i'm trying to make sense of this as far as the special is concerned for 2025. seems the explanation is likely that while fewer people jumped in more high point holders jumped in? ~1000 fewer tags is not anything to sneeze at either, but the quota/applicant ratio puts a little cold water on that. cuts must've been primarily in the better and "worthwhile" units.

unless I messed something up in all the nasty conversions of those tables. can anyone corroborate?

*edited to add corrected numbers

 

[npaden]

here's what i worked up for pronghorn:

View attachment 375411

i'm trying to make sense of this as far as the special is concerned for 2025. seems the explanation is likely that while fewer people jumped in more high point holders jumped in? ~1000 fewer tags is not anything to sneeze at either, but the quota/applicant ratio puts a little cold water on that. cuts must've been primarily in the better and "worthwhile" units.

unless I messed something up in all the nasty conversions of those tables. can anyone corroborate?

Something seems wrong on those numbers. SA-99 caught a big error on my numbers that I posted above so I edited them. I'm going to have to break down and import it into excel instead of just adding it by hand.

 

[Kiwi]

I didn't apply in WY for the first time in many years, still hurts not to draw haha. Looking at OTC bear hunts, in either WY or MT, as a possible fall hunt.

Happy to have burnt most of my points over the last 10 years (only have 5 deer points left) and made the most of the hunt opportunities before the point creep really hit. First two years I applied I drew general elk tags as second choice!

 

[TOGIE]

Something seems wrong on those numbers. SA-99 caught a big error on my numbers that I posted above so I edited them. I'm going to have to break down and import it into excel instead of just adding it by hand.

agreed. found the issue too. there's a lot of cheeky BS that shows up in how these are formatted once in excel and a sneaky null value in a very random spot prevented a complete text to number conversion on the special data for 2025. i think i had something filtered on the 2025 regular draw data that i didn't mean to.

not only are they a pain to bring into excel due to the headers on every page they are also sneakily all split into two formats, with about half containing extra columns that don't show up until it's in excel. all easily solvable. but just easy to lose track of what you've filtered and reformatted in power query with those split formats.

i think this is correct now, and makes a lot more sense.

 

[Dougfirtree]

No luck for me and my son this year..

 

[Big Fin]

agreed. found the issue too. there's a lot of cheeky BS that shows up in how these are formatted once in excel and a sneaky null value in a very random spot prevented a complete text to number conversion on the special data for 2025. i think i had something filtered on the 2025 regular draw data that i didn't mean to.

not only are they a pain to bring into excel due to the headers on every page they are also sneakily all split into two formats, with about half containing extra columns that don't show up until it's in excel. all easily solvable. but just easy to lose track of what you've filtered and reformatted in power query with those split formats.

i think this is correct now, and makes a lot more sense.

View attachment 375417

I think those are correct. It does not show the 100,000 non-residents who didn't even apply and who will just buy a point in July. That's where the "point creepers" come from.

 

[Tyler1215]

Wife got a unit 32 antelope tag, I'm pumped!

 

[seeth07]

agreed. found the issue too. there's a lot of cheeky BS that shows up in how these are formatted once in excel and a sneaky null value in a very random spot prevented a complete text to number conversion on the special data for 2025. i think i had something filtered on the 2025 regular draw data that i didn't mean to.

not only are they a pain to bring into excel due to the headers on every page they are also sneakily all split into two formats, with about half containing extra columns that don't show up until it's in excel. all easily solvable. but just easy to lose track of what you've filtered and reformatted in power query with those split formats.

i think this is correct now, and makes a lot more sense.

View attachment 375417

how did the special 2025 quota go up but the regular quota go down by so much?

 

[7mm08mo]

Always been a one point unit, until this year, tags cut, went to a < 2 unit now

 

[BuzzH]

I've pretty much stopped even looking at draw odds, I just apply where I want to hunt and let the chips fall.

If I don't draw anything, meh. I usually have way more tags every year than I have time for.

I was sort of bitching to myself this morning then I got to thinking, AK fishing next week, Yukon for caribou/griz/black bear, Montana elk/deer, Wyoming at least 3 elk tags, extra whitetail tag, general elk, general deer, 2 doe pronghorn tags for the trash can, a good WY pronghorn tag, and AZ coues deer.

I also have 2 buddies from ND that drew WY bull elk that I want to hunt with, another friend drew a cow moose in WY, and another friend drew a good pronghorn tag.

My nephew drew a good deer tag in Montana as well.

I'll be chasing all over hell and gone again.