WY GEN Elk Tag is Virtually a Once in a Lifetime Tag---Change my Mind

[AvidIndoorsman]

You guys didn’t see this coming? This is actually comical.

I just didn’t think the “calamity” Ms. Cleo was referring too was elk tags

 

[RobertD]

Maybe just copium at this point but I think the thoughts on demand destruction are pretty useful. It wouldn't shock me if five years from now, things look a lot better than they do now. Not as good as they were before, but worsening at a slower pace.

I think the best thing for NR elk general tag opportunity would've been for 90/10 to pass before the outfitter lobby intercepted it. I think a lot of NRs thought it was a blessing at first but for us in the DIY crowd, we're now staring down the barrel of 10 point general tags and I sure wish we weren't....

 

[BenInMT]

This is what happens when you have a bunch of “content creators” hawking the dream for pennies.

 

[AvidIndoorsman]

Ever heard the saying "the cure for high prices is high prices?"

The real issue is that this is currently the case but most folks don't understand what point creep is nor do the actual math on what their tag will actually cost.

I'm using CO pronghorn here, simply because all the draw system in CO is very easy to game out and they publish all the data, but this basically applies in every state.

No New Apps: So that's the total number of CO apps in 2022 for the 842 tags the state gives out to NR. In this column for demonstration purposes I'm assuming that apps decrease linearly every year with no new apps. This is what most folks think happens, because they don't get it. Notice even at year 20 nearly ~40% the applicants haven't drawn.

Lottery: This is how much money the state makes off of apps that year. $420.23 tied to the CPI (averaged to 2.5% a year) multiplied by 842.

PrefPoint: This assumes that $420.23 tied to CPI for the 842 licenses + every applicant who doesn't draw buys a point at $42.01.

Total Cost if you draw that year: There is a point tree in CO of 34 years so people will draw at different times, this is your cost if you draw in each year... obviously not back calculating where you were before, meaning this number is probably like 10 pref points too low/ cheap.

Point being if in 2021 you jumped into the point game for CO pronghorn and are holding out for a 5pt tag, given point creep it likely will take 20 years for you to draw even that tag, and the cost is $1469

10% Bail + New Apps: Here is my attempt at modeling what point pools might do, so I'm assuming that 10% of total applicants bail every year then that for the next 2 years applications continue to increase at current rate... then in 2 years they drop 40% a year for 3 years, then the crash slows and then drop 12% a year until in 2034 they reach 2016 app level, then after that drop only by 5%.

This is kinda best case scenario for western draws. But as you will notice, once you get to 2041 we still have 10x the number of applicants as tags.



Also pref points and a big money maker for the states lol

 

[Dsnow9]

The real issue is that this is the case but most folks don't understand what point creep is nor do the actual math on what their tag will actually cost.

I'm using CO pronghorn here, simply because all the draw system in CO is very easy to game out and they publish all the data, but this basically applies in every state.

No New Apps: So that's the total number of CO apps in 2021 for the 842 tags the state gives out to NR. In this column for demonstration purposes I'm assuming that apps decrease linearly every year with no new apps. This is what most folks think happens, because they don't get it. Notice even at year 20 half the applicants haven't drawn.

Lottery: This is how much money the state makes off of apps that year. $420.23 tied to the CPI (averaged to 2.5% a year) multiplied by 842.

PrefPoint: This assumes that $420.23 tied to CPI for the 842 licenses + every applicant who doesn't draw buys a point at $42.01.

Total Cost if you draw that year: There is a point tree in CO of 34 years so people will draw at different times, this is your cost if you draw in each year... obviously not back calculating where you were before, meaning this number is probably like 10 pref points too low/ cheap.

Point being if in 2021 you jumped into the point game for CO pronghorn and are holding out for a 5pt tag, given point creep it likely will take 20 years for you to draw even that tag, and the cost is $1469

10% Bail + New Apps: Here is my attempt at modeling what point pools might do, so I'm assuming that 10% of total applicants bail every year then that for the next 2 years applications continue to increase at current rate... then in 2 years they drop 40% a year for 3 years, then the crash slows and then drop 12% a year until in 2034 they reach 2016 app level, then after that drop only by 5%.

This is kinda best case scenario for western draws. But as you will notice, once you get to 2041 we still have 10x the number of applicants as tags.

View attachment 226127

 

[RobertD]

The real issue is that this is the case but most folks don't understand what point creep is nor do the actual math on what their tag will actually cost.

I'm using CO pronghorn here, simply because all the draw system in CO is very easy to game out and they publish all the data, but this basically applies in every state.

No New Apps: So that's the total number of CO apps in 2021 for the 842 tags the state gives out to NR. In this column for demonstration purposes I'm assuming that apps decrease linearly every year with no new apps. This is what most folks think happens, because they don't get it. Notice even at year 20 half the applicants haven't drawn.

Lottery: This is how much money the state makes off of apps that year. $420.23 tied to the CPI (averaged to 2.5% a year) multiplied by 842.

PrefPoint: This assumes that $420.23 tied to CPI for the 842 licenses + every applicant who doesn't draw buys a point at $42.01.

Total Cost if you draw that year: There is a point tree in CO of 34 years so people will draw at different times, this is your cost if you draw in each year... obviously not back calculating where you were before, meaning this number is probably like 10 pref points too low/ cheap.

Point being if in 2021 you jumped into the point game for CO pronghorn and are holding out for a 5pt tag, given point creep it likely will take 20 years for you to draw even that tag, and the cost is $1469

10% Bail + New Apps: Here is my attempt at modeling what point pools might do, so I'm assuming that 10% of total applicants bail every year then that for the next 2 years applications continue to increase at current rate... then in 2 years they drop 40% a year for 3 years, then the crash slows and then drop 12% a year until in 2034 they reach 2016 app level, then after that drop only by 5%.

This is kinda best case scenario for western draws. But as you will notice, once you get to 2041 we still have 10x the number of applicants as tags.

View attachment 226127

Also pref points and a big money maker for the states lol

Love it, man really do, especially the bail formula

 

[AvidIndoorsman]

Love it, man really do, especially the bail formula

Gracias and TLDR

2016 = 5500 NR applicants
2022 = 26218 NR applicants

Number of tags issued is static.

 

[RobertD]

Gracias and TLDR

2016 = 5500 NR applicants
2022 = 26218 NR applicants

Number of tags issued is static.

This is why despite every contradicting indicator, I think that level of demand, while intense, is temporary. I just don't think that many people can get that engaged with a hobby and the demand remain as high as it is now for everyone for very long.

Some rule changes and outside factors could help. A new form or variation of hunting besides public land EDA out west getting popular would help a lot too. But I'm almost certain we're near the top of a the bell curve, just with a much more shallow and gradual decline on the backside than the front.

 

[rogerthat]

This is why despite every contradicting indicator, I think that level of demand, while intense, is temporary. I just don't think that many people can get that engaged with a hobby and the demand remain as high as it is now for everyone for very long.

Some rule changes and outside factors could help. A new form or variation of hunting besides public land EDA out west getting popular would help a lot too. But I'm almost certain we're near the top of a the bell curve, just with a much more shallow and gradual decline on the backside than the front.

Interesting take and I hope your right but I think the more likely scenario is applicants continue to rise, draw odds continue to plummet, and the new crop of hunters never realize what they missed or that people used to have “so much” opportunity. I just don’t see a reason for an end to the growth or demand. A little like a general uncontrolled tag hunt. There is always someone willing to shoot the critters that are left until you literally have no critters left. Hunters don’t self regulate on a large scale. Individually we do but as a whole I haven’t seen it without a regulation structure going in place to protect the critters.

 

[AvidIndoorsman]

This is why despite every contradicting indicator, I think that level of demand, while intense, is temporary. I just don't think that many people can get that engaged with a hobby and the demand remain as high as it is now for everyone for very long.

Some rule changes and outside factors could help. A new form or variation of hunting besides public land EDA out west getting popular would help a lot too. But I'm almost certain we're near the top of a the bell curve, just with a much more shallow and gradual decline on the backside than the front.

So for CO pronghorn again...
2016 R= 41588
2022 R = 57150

Which is percentage wise isn't as big... but it's still 15,562 more applicants.

Point being while I agree with you, but I think that what will likely happen is NR opportunity will be whittled away or eliminated to give more R opportunity.

As a CO resident you can easily get a Bull, Cow, Buck Muley, and bear tag every year, plus because of the absurd reissue system have a crack at a pronghorn tag.

In my last 5 years as a CO resident I killed 3 bulls, 1 cow, 5 muley... then hunted pronghorn 1x and bear 3x, and helped buddies kill 4 more bulls.

All of those were in OTC/draw every year/reissue tags, yet the whining about Resident opportunity in CO is at a fever pitch.



My theory, old dudes don't like anyone in the hills but them and whine despite a chit load of opportunity, new guy just suck at hunting and think the issue is allocation not the fact that they are hunting on the M trail, and both of these groups are just exacerbating the problem, which is real.

 

[TOGIE]

My theory, old dudes don't like anyone in the hills but them and whine despite a chit load of opportunity, new guy just suck at hunting and think the issue is allocation not the fact that they are hunting on the M trail, and both of these groups are just exacerbating the problem, which is real.

in my firsthand experience, the people whining are people that sat the same 5 meadows for 25 years, probably killed like 7 bulls during those 25 years. then in the last three years saw like 8 more people in the area and haven't shot a bull in those meadows in 5 years.

i'm guessing that's upwards of 90% of resident elk hunters right there.

 

[Oak]

Gracias and TLDR

2016 = 5500 NR applicants
2022 = 26218 NR applicants

Number of tags issued is static.

Side note:

2016 = 5500 NR applicants, 4426 1st choice pp
2022 = 26220 NR applicants, 23199 1st choice pp

 

[PablitoPescador]

in my firsthand experience, the people whining are people that sat the same 5 meadows for 25 years, probably killed like 7 bulls during those 25 years. then in the last three years saw like 8 more people in the area and haven't shot a bull in those meadows in 5 years.

i'm guessing that's upwards of 90% of resident elk hunters right there.

Is it normal to see 12 spring bear hunters 4-5 miles from the truck during a weekend hunt? How about 14 spring bear hunters the next weekend in a completely different mountain range? That was my experience this spring. I hunted my ass off, and I filled my tag. Still not a great experience. That was just spring bear. I shudder to think what it will look like this fall...

 

[DFS]

Interesting take and I hope your right but I think the more likely scenario is applicants continue to rise, draw odds continue to plummet, and the new crop of hunters never realize what they missed or that people used to have “so much” opportunity. I just don’t see a reason for an end to the growth or demand. A little like a general uncontrolled tag hunt. There is always someone willing to shoot the critters that are left until you literally have no critters left. Hunters don’t self regulate on a large scale. Individually we do but as a whole I haven’t seen it without a regulation structure going in place to protect the critters.

And when you bring up concern for the resource, the new recruits say things change deal with it. They don’t know any better or care. The realization from people of what we created is comical. It was very predictable.

 

[AvidIndoorsman]

Side note:

2016 = 5500 NR applicants, 4426 1st choice pp
2022 = 26220 NR applicants, 23199 1st choice pp

Agreed.

Which is an important caveat to my table, it's total applicants in the pool.

So when I say 10% bail, that might mean 0 guys at point level 1 bail and 0 guys at point level 18 bail, but at 3-5 pts you have 80% attrition as people realize it's a pipe dream.

It's going to be a pyramid is what I'm fumbling around trying to say.

 

[AvidIndoorsman]

Is it normal ?

In 1880? 1980? 2000? 2015?

Sounds about like some of the bear spots I hunted in Montana in 2013-2016

 

[2rocky]

Side note:

2016 = 5500 NR applicants, 4426 1st choice pp
2022 = 26220 NR applicants, 23199 1st choice pp

If i ask you to hold my place in line at starbucks with 5 people in it it's not worth much. If I ask you to hold my place in line on Black Friday at Walmart, the frontof the line position is worth som e serious bucks... Middle or back of the line not so much...

The items in the store are still the same price...

 

[RobertD]

Interesting take and I hope your right but I think the more likely scenario is applicants continue to rise, draw odds continue to plummet, and the new crop of hunters never realize what they missed or that people used to have “so much” opportunity. I just don’t see a reason for an end to the growth or demand. A little like a general uncontrolled tag hunt. There is always someone willing to shoot the critters that are left until you literally have no critters left. Hunters don’t self regulate on a large scale. Individually we do but as a whole I haven’t seen it without a regulation structure going in place to protect the critters.

For sure, I should clarify when I say I think demand will go down, I don't think odds will actually improve that much because of this...

NR opportunity will be whittled away or eliminated to give more R opportunity.

...being largely true.

So for me it's > interest in western hunting (demand) continues to increase > NR opportunities decrease > interest decreases as a response > end result: overall NR demand in say, 2030, is lower than 2020, but still higher than 2010 while NR opportunity is lower than ever.

Loose, messy and abstract but I think that's the likely general outcome.

Also

My theory, old dudes don't like anyone in the hills but them and whine despite a chit load of opportunity, new guy just suck at hunting and think the issue is allocation not the fact that they are hunting on the M trail, and both of these groups are just exacerbating the problem, which is real.

I agree, then add a big pinch of most folks not knowing how points/odds/draws actually work.

 

[BuzzH]

And when you bring up concern for the resource, the new recruits say things change deal with it. They don’t know any better or care. The realization from people of what we created is comical. It was very predictable.

I tend to agree, but what is more concerning is that old and new hunters shouldn't have to be worried about "concern with the resource".

Managers and G&F Departments are paid to do that, from our license dollars.

Don't take that to mean that hunters also can't show some restraint when they're 100% aware that the managers aren't doing their job. I apply for tags to pitch them and to keep someone else from filling them. I stopped hunting elk in Montana to protest the crap management there.

Its sad that we have to do that, but its either do that or just say the hell with it and keep shooting until the GF agencies see the destruction they're causing.

What we really need to address is proper management without the negative outside influences of hunters, outfitters, local politics, businesses, and the like taking priority over the health of the wildlife resource first.

I really don't care about the feelings of people that can't draw, businesses that may be impacted, local politics, or if every outfitter goes broke if that's what is needed to keep wildlife around.

 

[Brn2hnt]

Gracias and TLDR

2016 = 5500 NR applicants
2022 = 26218 NR applicants

Number of tags issued is static.

While I agree that the trend is definite and obvious, it's also worth noting that in that timespan CO changed from requiring everyone to from the cash for an app to only charging after you drew... so a giant external factor affecting those numbers.