Thoughts on this bailout and “stimulus”?

[VikingsGuy]

Hopefully the effect is positive, and oddly we haven't seen the consequences, even minimally. I don't think anyone has a solid explanation on why the Fed can create $4Trillon out of thin air and buy bonds and inflation remains practically nonexistent.

Seems like some economists are bouncing around the possibility that "printing money", high government debt loads and high government spending are not unavoidably inflationary - at times they are and at times they aren't - if you get the timing right you can definitely set aside some of the old concerns - but if you get it wrong say hello to 1975 stag-flation. It will be interesting to see how the last dozen or so years pan out in the long run. If economists adjust their models, if government can "thread the needle".

 

[Straight Arrow]

@Mallardsx2 - phone & internet are utilities in this day and age, not luxuries. I can't do my job without them, most people couldn't do their jobs these days w/o them. This isn't 1980 anymore.

True and realistic, as any parent or grandparent will confirm. Mallardsx2's advisory expresses that of an unmarried, without-child, well-payed boor, likely prone to become an even more disgruntled, skeptical hermit. (Only my impression and not necessarily factual, merely conjecture based on rhetorical dialogue expressed heretofore.)

 

[bushman13]

Would it be better to send them back to work as opposed to giving them a few weeks expenses? Given the demographic that is normally effected by flu's, would it be better provide a more dynamic approach other than a total shutdown? Could a state shutdown be politically motivated?

That is exactly what I intend to do. Two days ago I stopped by my favorite little coffee/pastry shop. They were on a skeletal crew. Only take out allowed. Since everyone is working at home, nobody was there. Normally the tip cup is flowing over. There was nothing in it that morning. They know my order and had it ready as I walked up to the counter. I left $20 as a tip, walked out thinking how screwed these young folks are who I know are working this as their side jobs to make ends meet in an expensive place like Bozeman.

Yesterday was an even pointed reminder. I drove into the parking lot and noticed a new sign on the door. "Closed until further notice." Now, I can't leave a tip or support them. These young people are screwed. If one wonders why they seem somewhat disenfranchised by the system, it is times like this that only serve to add to that feeling. They are working their asses off. They are waiting to catch a good break and they all seem talented and ambitious enough that when that break comes, they will ride that wave. Yet, they see a lot of other industries being bailed out, at whose expense.

I'm at a point in my life with no debt, rental property providing monthly cash flow, and other sources of income that I don't need this "stimulus." My wife and I each have our own charitable soft spots. I suspect most of ours will go to the local food bank or to places we know are suffering in the same way we would have been 30 years ago with a baby, college loans, and not having been in the workforce long enough to start saving for the rainy days.

I know there are plenty of kids who rely on school lunch programs who are probably not getting much to eat right now. The Food Bank has always been a group that has been on the front lines of that battle. That seems a better place for this stimulus than the Newberg bank accounts.

Personally, my biggest focus right now is the eight employees I have in this outdoor media operation. For me, this is a passion. For them, this is the rent or mortgage payment, the grocery bills, and other basic necessities. I have no problem with any of them getting this stimulus check. They need it. And, given they are all under 35, odds are that their generation is going to have to pay the future cost of this stimulus package.

 

[Ben Lamb]

Would it be better to send them back to work as opposed to giving them a few weeks expenses? Given the demographic that is normally effected by flu's, would it be better provide a more dynamic approach other than a total shutdown? Could a state shutdown be politically motivated?

I think this goes back to the concept of flattening the curve. Those who would be exposed to the workers who may not show symptoms could be the ones who end up dying. If we look at this as a cost-benefit analysis, I'd say extending unemployment to laid off workers (which some companies are gaming this already by simply saying that their employees are scheduled for 0 hours rather than laid off in order to save their UI payments from increasing) and providing some relief to those workers would do more to save dollars and resources than having a massive influx of people heading to hospitals that may or may not be able to adequately care for them.

2-4 weeks of self-isolation versus big upticks in new infections is basically where we're at.

 

[VikingsGuy]

Could a state shutdown be politically motivated?

Can we start a "conspiracy" thread and move all these types of remarks to that - like we did humor? The level of ridiculousness of this is mind-boggling. No one knows for sure if we are under or over reacting - but to suggest some type of political coup suggests that Trump, Pelosi and all presidents/prime ministers of the EU, Canada and UK are colluding as they all seem to agree (which is beyond rare). And to what shared end?

My dream is an outdoors/shooting forum without the tin foil hat users - but given this and a few others I frequent, I guess it is too much to hope for. But HT is certainly better than most, maybe BigFin can use the crisis to do a little membership house keeping.

 

[SAJ-99]

Unemployment claims jumped 70,000...and they trail by a week so that was LAST week. I predicted on the other thread that next weeks jump will be a record. Old record was above 600,000. I say that because the Labor website was overwhelmed by new claims earlier in the week. The question on bailouts would be if is better/cheaper to bailout the industry or let it go under and put ten of thousands of people out of work. We all pay for the latter just as much as we do the former. My view has generally been aligned with the government's, regardless of who's in charge, and that is to extract a pound of flesh. See the example of what happened with the auto industry and banks in 2008. We tried the "Let them go under" method with Lehman and that DID NOT work out well.

 

[rjthehunter]

So here's a new point of view. I'm 22, just about to finish college, and working a full time job. Who are the people working a full time job making minimum wage? I don't know anyone whose making minimum wage. The labor force is at a point now where you couldn't find a job at minimum wage around here due to the shortage of workers. IF someone had a minimum wage job I would say "Hey why don't you apply here? They're hiring at 14$/hr with no experience? Maybe you don't like the work as much but if you're struggling that hard then it's worth it.

Being 22 with lots of expenses including student loans, monthly rent, truck payment, phone, internet, utilities, insurance, etc. I've still managed to save enough money to get by 2 months without working. Granted my monthly expenses are much less than someone mentioned above. People should have money saved as a just in case. What if your car breaks down and it's going to cost 2k to get it fixed? What happens then? I have money saved as an emergency fund, in case I get sick and can't work for 2 weeks again. Thankfully my truck is almost payed off now which will reduce my monthly expenses.

Maybe it's just being in the construction industry that I see ample jobs for everyone. Right this second if 20 of you came here and asked me for a job, you would be employed at above $14/hr with enough work to do 90 hours a week if you wanted. There is at least 10 other companies like the one I work for that would do the same thing in a heartbeat.

All the more reason to teach trades in High School. Learn a trade and you can work in any state.

As far as the "free" money goes, I don't need it. But I'm not going to turn it down. I'll just put it towards some loans. Definitely not giving it away since I'm gonna be paying for it anyway.

 

[the nikster]

Not to cause panic but I worry about multiple curves....

 

[bushman13]

For posing a question on whether a shutdown could be politically motivated? That's called open discussion.

Can we start a "conspiracy" thread and move all these types of remarks to that - like we did humor? The level of ridiculousness of this is mind-boggling. No one knows for sure if we are under or over reacting - but to suggest some type of political coup suggests that Trump, Pelosi and all presidents/prime ministers of the EU, Canada and UK are colluding as they all seem to agree (which is beyond rare). And to what shared end?

My dream is an outdoors/shooting forum without the tin foil hat users - but given this and a few others I frequent, I guess it is too much to hope for. But HT is certainly better than most, maybe BigFin can use the crisis to do a little membership house keeping.

 

[El Jason]

You know for sure all the people that have low paying jobs all drink $500 a year in alcohol, smoke $2500 and all your other ridiculous claims?

Like I said, get over yourself.

The reason your grandparents were able to make ends meet is because they didn't live in the same time. Things were cheaper, dollar went further, and there was a huge middle class.

Try to put yourself in someone else's shoes for a minute.

Some people revel in hyperbole. Ignore him.

 

[VikingsGuy]

So here's a new point of view. I'm 22, just about to finish college, and working a full time job. Who are the people working a full time job making minimum wage? I don't know anyone whose making minimum wage. The labor force is at a point now where you couldn't find a job at minimum wage around here due to the shortage of workers. IF someone had a minimum wage job I would say "Hey why don't you apply here? They're hiring at 14$/hr with no experience? Maybe you don't like the work as much but if you're struggling that hard then it's worth it.

Being 22 with lots of expenses including student loans, monthly rent, truck payment, phone, internet, utilities, insurance, etc. I've still managed to save enough money to get by 2 months without working. Granted my monthly expenses are much less than someone mentioned above. People should have money saved as a just in case. What if your car breaks down and it's going to cost 2k to get it fixed? What happens then? I have money saved as an emergency fund, in case I get sick and can't work for 2 weeks again. Thankfully my truck is almost payed off now which will reduce my monthly expenses.

Maybe it's just being in the construction industry that I see ample jobs for everyone. Right this second if 20 of you came here and asked me for a job, you would be employed at above $14/hr with enough work to do 90 hours a week if you wanted. There is at least 10 other companies like the one I work for that would do the same thing in a heartbeat.

All the more reason to teach trades in High School. Learn a trade and you can work in any state.

As far as the "free" money goes, I don't need it. But I'm not going to turn it down. I'll just put it towards some loans. Definitely not giving it away since I'm gonna be paying for it anyway.

My guess is that in 30 years you will have much more perspective on the ups and downs that comes with being lower-middle to middle class (even if you rise above that financially you will see/know others who do not). Layoffs, recessions, family health. Lots of curves/dips in the road.

 

[Exhausted]

If anyone is sitting here reading this I can save you $1000/year by shutting your internet to your house off. I lived without it for 25 years. Mine is less than that, but needed as my work is internet based.
If anyone sitting here reading this on their phone, I can save you $1000/year but not having a cell phone bill. I lived without it for 25 years Again, needed for work.
No alcohol- Save you ~$500/year I lived without it for 21 years. Don't drink, next.
No smoking- ~$2555/year I lived without it for 35 years. Don't smoke, next.
No cable satellite TY- Saved you $1500/year. I still to this day live without it. Don't have it, next.

There are ways to save and still live.

Few people reading this post are incapable of saving enough cash over the course of a couple years to cover 6 months of their bills as long as they live within their means.....
But those same people have a 4 wheeler nope, have a side by side nope, have a camper nope, smoke nope, drink nope, eat out you got me, I like to treat my family to eating out occasionally, but it's built into my budget, go golfing nope, weekly haircuts bald, unnecessary driving work from home, overpriced trucks maybe one, the other is 20 years old and paid off and cars..etc etc

A person has to individually decide how to spend their money appropriately and IMHO should not be rewarded for the bad behavior when they cannot spend their money appropriately.

My grandparents both had low paying jobs and when they retired they lived on their social security checks for 30 years with little to no savings in the bank. They ALWAYS had 6 months of bills tucked away in a bible for situations like this. So dont tell me it cant be done.

PS: They had NONE of the items listed above. It was all about just being happy being together and they did that for 60 years and still managed to raise 4 children.

Its just a materialistic world today where people think they need to blow their money on the next best thing. Reality is that if you cant afford it you shouldn't try to own it.

Having said all that, I am not trying to get by on minimum wage. Have I in my life, yes. And it was difficult.

Just my personal situation again. Maybe I should cut out the monthly giving to the church? What about my kids college fund? My son't monthly hair cuts? My wife doesn't go to the salon, ever. She doesn't get her nails done. I DO go hunting out west so I guess I could shave a couple thousand there. I'm just giving a real world example for me at my current situation. We are more financially stable now than the prior 12 years of our marriage. Our current level of saving was not always possible.

 

[Deleted member 28227]

Linking to Snopes and including a graph that shows AP, Bloomberg and the Compost as politically neutral. As the kids say "SMH"

Everyone is biased... everyone, you, me , big fin.... actually snowymountaineer isn't but that dude seems to be weirdly immune to the political thread sirens, some times I think he is our odysessus, except tied to a computer with a giant muley on his back instead of a ships mast.

Anyway....

Generally speaking, now as in ever, if you focus on fact reporting sources rather than political commentary you will be a much happier person. If your watch MSNBC, Fox whatever, and the person talking is titled reporter if they are titled political commentator (or at least grain of salt)

 

[noharleyyet]

The one economic concern that I've had is that the small businesses are going to fail, and the corporations are going to grow even stronger from this.

My wife and I have bought all of our groceries for years from the same little locally owned corner grocery store a couple blocks from my house. Since January, we've been getting everything either delivered through Amazon, or curbside pickup at Walmart, for obvious reasons.

The corporation have the ability to pivot and cater to people right now, where as the little shops don't.

SIAP...

Amazon to hire 100,000 more workers and give raises to current staff to deal with coronavirus demands

Amazon said it was having trouble delivering items on time due to a rise in online shopping amid the coronavirus outbreak.

www.cnbc.com

 

[SAJ-99]

Seems like some economists are bouncing around the possibility that "printing money", high government debt loads and high government spending are not unavoidably inflationary - at times they are and at times they aren't - if you get the timing right you can definitely set aside some of the old concerns - but if you get it wrong say hello to 1975 stag-flation. It will be interesting to see how the last dozen or so years pan out in the long run. If economists adjust their models, if government can "thread the needle".

The general view is that all the previous money went to banks because they are the transfer mechanism for the Fed. That resulted in an increase in prices of financial assets (stocks, bonds, etc), but it didn't help out the average worker much. Jobs increased but wages stagnated, but at least they got the 'wealth effect' from people feeling better because their 401k's went up. When you send every American a check, that is literally 'Helicopter money'. The problem is you are telling every American to stay and home, so it probably just gets spent on rent and basic needs. Nothing wrong with that, and maybe if we can just tread water for 6 months until this passes we will be fine.? There is no doubt that the money is going to get "printed" and the long-term effects will be dealt with later. With rates so low, at least the Fed has plenty of ammunition to deal with that problem.

 

[bushman13]

Exactly, stay off Snopes!

Everyone is biased... everyone, you, me , big fin.... actually snowymountaineer isn't but that dude seems to be weirdly immune to the political thread sirens, some times I think he is our odysessus, except tied to a computer with a giant muley on his back instead of a ships mast.

Anyway....

Generally speaking, now as in ever, if you focus on fact reporting sources rather than political commentary you will be a much happier person. If your watch MSNBC, Fox whatever, and the person talking is titled reporter if they are titled political commentator (or at least grain of salt)

 

[El Jason]

My guess is that in 30 years you will have much more perspective on the ups and downs that comes with being lower-middle to middle class (even if you rise above that financially you will see/know others who do not). Layoffs, recessions, family health. Lots of curves/dips in the road.

I have reminded myself a number of times I was 22 once, and view things through a much different lens now.

 

[BigHornRam]

I think instead of giving everyone a $1000 check and blowing up the debt even more, relief should be funneled through unemployment insurance. Granted a lot of people in the food service industry live on tips, but I think unemployment can take that in account. JMO though.

 

[El Jason]

The one economic concern that I've had is that the small businesses are going to fail, and the corporations are going to grow even stronger from this.

My wife and I have bought all of our groceries for years from the same little locally owned corner grocery store a couple blocks from my house. Since January, we've been getting everything either delivered through Amazon, or curbside pickup at Walmart, for obvious reasons.

The corporation have the ability to pivot and cater to people right now, where as the little shops don't.

This is my concern as well.

 

[SAJ-99]

So here's a new point of view. I'm 22, just about to finish college, and working a full time job. Who are the people working a full time job making minimum wage? I don't know anyone whose making minimum wage. The labor force is at a point now where you couldn't find a job at minimum wage around here due to the shortage of workers. IF someone had a minimum wage job I would say "Hey why don't you apply here? They're hiring at 14$/hr with no experience? Maybe you don't like the work as much but if you're struggling that hard then it's worth it.

Being 22 with lots of expenses including student loans, monthly rent, truck payment, phone, internet, utilities, insurance, etc. I've still managed to save enough money to get by 2 months without working. Granted my monthly expenses are much less than someone mentioned above. People should have money saved as a just in case. What if your car breaks down and it's going to cost 2k to get it fixed? What happens then? I have money saved as an emergency fund, in case I get sick and can't work for 2 weeks again. Thankfully my truck is almost payed off now which will reduce my monthly expenses.

Maybe it's just being in the construction industry that I see ample jobs for everyone. Right this second if 20 of you came here and asked me for a job, you would be employed at above $14/hr with enough work to do 90 hours a week if you wanted. There is at least 10 other companies like the one I work for that would do the same thing in a heartbeat.

All the more reason to teach trades in High School. Learn a trade and you can work in any state.

As far as the "free" money goes, I don't need it. But I'm not going to turn it down. I'll just put it towards some loans. Definitely not giving it away since I'm gonna be paying for it anyway.

$14/hr translates to a $28,000 salary. That isn't even a living wage by most standards. Telling someone they can work 80hr/wk and make $56k isn't really a solution. This is the problem economists have been trying to solve for the last decade. You want people to make enough money to have some discretionary income to spend on other things, and have the time to spend it.