Randy Newberg on Matt Rinella's Podcast

[3forks]

The inability to look beyond the immediate to see the entirety of the issue is the primary force of diagnosing the problem correctly, then misdiagnosing the solution.

Hell, take him to Kalispell, Missoula, Bozeman and see what's up. Or even Lewistown.

As you’re probably aware, Matt’s brother lives in Bozeman.

I‘m certain Matt has visited Bozeman (and likely other cities with significant growth) enough to have considered growth as it relates to his arguments.

The additional growth experienced in western states and cities is a definite factor. But, when you have social media influencing the behavior of a significant amount of the “new” recreational users - I think you arrive back at Matt’s premise.

 

[Ben Lamb]

As you’re probably aware, Matt’s brother lives in Bozeman.

I‘m certain Matt has visited Bozeman (and likely other cities with significant growth) enough to have considered growth as it relates to his arguments.

The additional growth experienced in western states and cities is a definite factor. But, when you have social media influencing the behavior of a significant amount of the “new” recreational users - I think you arrive back at Matt’s premise.

Understood, but until you live with the congestions, a visit to Bozo is much different than living in Miles City.

But we're still dealing with a national population explosion, coupled with intense wildlife habitat development across the US which leads to fewer acres available, and more concentrated pressure.

Social media is an ill in most respects, but I still don't think you can pin hunting crowding on just that.

 

[TOGIE]

has matt considered how much non hunting recreation that is also social media driven is affecting wildlife even more than hunting?

i just can't get over the fact that the entire problem matt is talking about is easily controlled with tag quotas. something admittedly his state is not doing very well, so that's another problem maybe he should focus his efforts on.

but we always go back to the eagle valley elk herd in colorado as the prime well studied example.

what is driving it's decline? it's not hunting, it's not hunting pressure. it is nearly entirely non hunting recreation pressure and development causing habitat/wintering ground loss.

but yeah hunting pressure is still the "dominant", the ultimate, numero uno, problem facing hunters today

i'm gonna continue to be a broken record on this.

what about sheep? are the perils of wild sheep really due to hunting pressure? that's laughable and falls flat on it's face.

broken record - i want matt to address all these scientifically documented items that are literally dropping wildlife dead in their tracks, and why we need to focus on social media over those things.

 

[Deleted member 28227]

As you’re probably aware, Matt’s brother lives in Bozeman.

I‘m certain Matt has visited Bozeman (and likely other cities with significant growth) enough to have considered growth as it relates to his arguments.

The additional growth experienced in western states and cities is a definite factor. But, when you have social media influencing the behavior of a significant amount of the “new” recreational users - I think you arrive back at Matt’s premise.

People who live in Montana who complain about significant growth are kinda kidding themselves, I lived in Bozeman it doesn't even qualify, by definition, as a city it's a medium sized town.

Sure a lot of MT towns have double or tripled in size, but they haven't added 500k to 1MM people. MT/WY/AK etc are the least populated states in the nation. 5 Million people attended the parade after the cubs won the world series in 2016... but yeah Bozangeles .

Entire point being there are just now a lot more people in the US and in the world and if folks like Randy aren't going to try their hardest to educate new comers to the sport them we are f-d.

Good luck overriding human nature and getting people to stop sharing their experiences... but you might have some luck get folks to be vocal about access, habitat protection, and management.

 

[Deleted member 20812]

i just can't get over the fact that the entire problem matt is talking about is easily controlled with tag quotas. something admittedly his state is not doing very well, so that's another problem maybe he should focus his efforts on.

It is such an easily solvable problem, and makes me thoroughly confused why some are so hell bent on changing social media culture (good luck).

Choose your district and limit tags, and quit shooting deer in the rut with an 06. How $*)Q!#@$ complex is that?

But, to your point there absolutely is a bigger underlying issue with public land usage. It’s absolutely insane, and the folks you see the most are honestly the least likely to be public land advocates.

The couple in the sprinter van with paddle boards, mountain bikes, and a corgi probably have no idea what leafy spurge is. Or spotted knapweed. Or cheatgrass. Or Dalmatian toadflax.

They don’t understand elk calving closures, limitations on dispersed camping, food storage orders, and so on.

That creates user and user/wildlife (should have clarified this earlier) conflict in a big way.

 

[Nicoli7153]

It is such an easily solvable problem, and makes me thoroughly confused why some are so hell bent on changing social media culture (good luck).

Choose your district and limit tags, and quit shooting deer in the rut with an 06. How $*)Q!#@$ complex is that?

But, to your point there absolutely is a bigger underlying issue with public land usage. It’s absolutely insane, and the folks you see the most are honestly the least likely to be public land advocates.

The couple in the sprinter van with paddle boards, mountain bikes, and a corgi probably have no idea what leafy spurge is. Or spotted knapweed. Or cheatgrass. Or Dalmatian toadflax.

They don’t understand elk calving closures, limitations on dispersed camping, food storage orders, and so on.

That creates user conflict in a big way.

And disrupts wildlife in a big way!

 

[rogerthat]

So if organic growth in hunter numbers ie via population growth was increasing hunter numbers than why were we fed the bs that hunter numbers were decreasing and everyone needs to recruit hunters in mass numbers including via social or we will lose our way of life? That’s the environment Matt and I grew up hunting in(we are about the same age). The “threat” in the west was politicians snatching our public lands. 3R! All hands on deck!

Meanwhile the trailheads and our spots kept getting more and more crowded. Than here comes social media and things appear to explode anecdotally. Next Covid…well you guys know the rest of that story. The main takeaway for me is we as hunters should have seen this coming and should have focused on organic traditional growth and still should. And yes I know…that’s fairy tale land but I totally understand where Matt is coming from on this.

 

[Deleted member 28227]

So if organic growth in hunter numbers ie via population growth was increasing hunter numbers than why were we fed the bs that hunter numbers were decreasing and everyone needs to recruit hunters in mass numbers including via social or we will lose our way of life? That’s the environment Matt and I grew up hunting in(we are about the same age). The “threat” in the west was politicians snatching our public lands. 3R! All hands on deck!

Meanwhile the trailheads and our spots kept getting more and more crowded. Than here comes social media and things appear to explode anecdotally. Next Covid…well you guys know the rest of that story. The main takeaway for me is we as hunters should have seen this coming and should have focused on organic traditional growth and still should. And yes I know…that’s fairy tale land but I totally understand where Matt is coming from on this.

I'm not convinced hunter numbers are increasing, population certainly is growing.

There is cheesecake factory where my dad use to pheasant hunt... that's what I've driving at when I refer to population growth being an issue.

 

[Ben Lamb]

It is such an easily solvable problem, and makes me thoroughly confused why some are so hell bent on changing social media culture (good luck).

Choose your district and limit tags, and quit shooting deer in the rut with an 06. How $*)Q!#@$ complex is that?

But, to your point there absolutely is a bigger underlying issue with public land usage. It’s absolutely insane, and the folks you see the most are honestly the least likely to be public land advocates.

The couple in the sprinter van with paddle boards, mountain bikes, and a corgi probably have no idea what leafy spurge is. Or spotted knapweed. Or cheatgrass. Or Dalmatian toadflax.

They don’t understand elk calving closures, limitations on dispersed camping, food storage orders, and so on.

That creates user conflict in a big way.

Hey man, let's not drag the corgies into this. Those dogs are baller as hell.

 

[rogerthat]

I'm not convinced hunter numbers are increasing, population certainly is growing.

There is cheesecake factory where my dad use to pheasant hunt... that's what I've driving at when I refer to population growth being an issue.

So western hunting demand is skyrocketing(that’s an undeniable fact) but that is due to existing hunters that didn’t hunt west now deciding to hunt west or it is offset by hunters quitting in the east or some combo of that? Seems like this is an important point to understand

 

[Ben Lamb]

I'm not convinced hunter numbers are increasing, population certainly is growing.

There is cheesecake factory where my dad use to pheasant hunt... that's what I've driving at when I refer to population growth being an issue.

It's the perfect storm of increased western hunting with decreasing access nationally. Southwick did some great surveys that really honed in on this. Essentially, local hunting dies when access is limited and people either change their approach to NR hunting or they abandon it all together.

Changing landownership away from traditional farmers & ranchers towards more amenity based owners & heavily increased leasing from hunt clubs & outfitters is likely to have as much of an effect on crowding as the number of tags issued. Trying to force more people into smaller landscape footprints is a recipe for anger & poor outcomes.

 

[3forks]

Understood, but until you live with the congestions, a visit to Bozo is much different than living in Miles City.

But we're still dealing with a national population explosion, coupled with intense wildlife habitat development across the US which leads to fewer acres available, and more concentrated pressure.

Social media is an ill in most respects, but I still don't think you can pin hunting crowding on just that.

I don’t want to speak for Matt, but I would bet he agrees with your point on congestion, and although his job is located in Miles City, I also bet that’s not the only reason Matt chooses to live there as opposed to someplace like Bozeman.

To add some context to my point of view, I was born a raised in a small Colorado resort town, and lived in Bozeman for 20 years until somewhat recently moving to the Denver area for work.

I‘m not unfamiliar with how small towns and their residents feel about growth or the impacts of that growth itself.

 

[Deleted member 20812]

Meanwhile the trailheads and our spots kept getting more and more crowded. Than here comes social media and things appear to explode anecdotally. Next Covid…well you guys know the rest of that story. The main takeaway for me is we as hunters should have seen this coming and should have focused on organic traditional growth and still should. And yes I know…that’s fairy tale land but I totally understand where Matt is coming from on this.

So are you willing to completely ignore the lost access part of this equation over the last three decades?

 

[Ben Lamb]

I don’t want to speak for Matt, but I would bet he agrees with your point on congestion, and although his job is located in Miles City, I also bet that’s not the only reason Matt chooses to live there as opposed to someplace like Bozeman.

To add some context to my point of view, I was born a raised in a small Colorado resort town, and lived in Bozeman for 20 years until somewhat recently moving to the Denver area for work.

I‘m not unfamiliar with how small towns and their residents feel about growth or the impacts of that growth itself.

I appreciate the gut check.

And sorry to hear about having to live in Denver.

 

[rogerthat]

So are you willing to completely ignore the lost access part of this equation over the last three decades?

No but I’m a numbers guy so I would need to research this more.

One thing that doesn’t smell right to me with the “we don’t have more hunters” and this is super anecdotal but I personally know a bunch of young men that “are living the hunting lifestyle” doing the whole social media thing, on your own diy, archery hunting, out of state etc. I have known of these young men their whole lives, knew their families. Historically family wise not into hunting whatsoever. I’m fairly sure these guys were “recruited” by social media and otherwise probably wouldn’t have hunted. Trying to wrap my mind around this a little as I definitely think it’s a thing and has brought in a bunch of new hunters right, wrong, or otherwise. Seems like this would have increased hunter numbers. I may have to do a deep dive into the numbers at some point for myself.

 

[Deleted member 20812]

No but I’m a numbers guy so I would need to research this more.

One thing that doesn’t smell right to me with the “we don’t have more hunters” and this is super anecdotal but I personally know a bunch of young men that “are living the hunting lifestyle” doing the whole social media thing, on your own diy, archery hunting, out of state etc. I have known of these young men their whole lives, knew their families. Historically family wise not into hunting whatsoever. I’m fairly sure these guys were “recruited” by social media and otherwise probably wouldn’t have hunted. Trying to wrap my mind around this a little as I definitely think it’s a thing and has brought in a bunch of new hunters right, wrong, or otherwise. Seems like this would have increased hunter numbers. I may have to do a deep dive into the numbers at some point for myself.

It’s not too hard to see that things like Born and Raised’s elk hunting videos across the western states had a role in this. Anyone that would argue otherwise is delusional. I know I’m not the only one who watched their archery areas completely blow up in the 2008-2015 timeframe.

However, you simply can’t just gloss over loss of access. Likewise, as @Hilljackoutlaw mentioned, you have the OnX factor. Simply having GPS tech in the late 90s early 2000s created a marked uptick n hunters using smaller, isolated chunks of public land.

 

[Ben Lamb]

R3 efforts have pretty much successfully stalled out the decline and 2020 pandemic hunting added a ton more people.

The Pandemic Created New Hunters. States Need to Keep Them.

“If we let them go next year, they're not going to be coming back.”

www.pewtrusts.org

While the overall percentage of Americans hunting may have dropped, the actual number of people has increased, while available land for hunters has decreased.

 

[Deleted member 28227]

So western hunting demand is skyrocketing(that’s an undeniable fact) but that is due to existing hunters that didn’t hunt west now deciding to hunt west or it is offset by hunters quitting in the east or some combo of that? Seems like this is an important point to understand

My hot take, which is informed by talking to folks on here, IRL, and my own N=1 experience.

I've mostly hunted public land, done some hunting on private via my in-laws. Why? Because I could get a Elk/Deer/Bear combo in MT for pennies as a resident. Lots of public land + BMA, ect. I took my buddy from Texas on a bear hunt in MT and we got hosed, he complained about how hard it was compared to Texas... I asked him how much it would cost to hunt whatever in Texas and it was ~ a months pay for me at the time, or like 1/2 my rent, or 4x what I was spending on all my hunting gear/tags/gas money for the season etc.

I tried to knock on some doors in MT for turkey and got completely shutdown. Private land access in general has been like that for me in MT/WY/CO etc. Hard No, we have outfitters.

Now hunting in MA and New England in general I've talked to folks a dozen or so times "Oh man it's crazy how empty the woods are you should have seen the place in the 80s it was a war zone. We used to do deer drives with 30 guys, now I can't find 4 buddies to come out on a weekend".

So...

1.) I think people have moved around, a lot of MA/NH/VT/MI/WI/TX etc folks who liked to hunt moved west... so more western resident hunters.

2.) The idea you can hunt private land of folks you don't know sees crazy to me... but apparently it wasn't, so that's goes to shrinking "huntable acres"

3.) Any kind of guided/drop camp/outfitter hunting has dramatically increased in price... IMHO outfitters have found they can charge double and take half as many hunters and so that's what they do, so that's less opportunity.

4.) Private land, esp winter range habitat being subdivided and developed

5.) Increased use by non-consumptive users.

Therefore likely there is a decrease in total hunters in the US, but those remaining hunters are much more likely to be hunting in the west and on public land. Sure some part of that is likely due to technology and media... but folks have been entranced by the west for 100+ years, hardly any of the big names in hunting/conservation were from the west; Leopold, Muir, Roosevelt, Powell, Grinnell... Forest and Stream precursor to Field and Stream, as noted by Randy in the interview, was based out of NYC. Again point being maybe social media has been a catalyst but it didn't cause anything... Boone was bitching about too many hunters back in his day.

I think those remaining hunters also are more likely to apply in a bunch of states in their pursuit for the last vestiges of good hunting. It's interesting, if you look at the "best units/trophy units/premium" they typically don't usually have that great of populations. Unit 2/201 in CO for instance doesn't have the most productive elk habitat in the state, actually kinda the opposite, but because the herd can't handle a ton of pressure opportunities are very limited... so way fewer hunters and a better age class. If you look at good areas as far as "recharge potential" ie ability to produce lots of animals every year, the best elk units in the US are likely the Colorado OTC units that pump out literally thousands of raghorns every year.

So yes those units are getting more applications... but I think that is kinda to be expected, and I think the only real issue is that folks 20 years ago sucked at math and didn't see it coming.

Therefore my opinion, subject to change, me, and apparently Matt and BigFin all basically agree on what's happening and that it's an issue, but I side with Bigfin in his notion that the best use of his efforts is to use the tools available to him to promote conservation. Honestly folks are going to watch and want to watch hunting TV... I'd rather they watch Randy or meateater than a lot of other stuff. I do think Matt has some great thoughts on how we should tell hunting stories and post images from hunts.

 

[BuzzH]

My hot take, which is informed by talking to folks on here, IRL, and my own N=1 experience.

I've mostly hunted public land, done some hunting on private via my in-laws. Why? Because I could get a Elk/Deer/Bear combo in MT for pennies as a resident. Lots of public land + BMA, ect. I took my buddy from Texas on a bear hunt in MT and we got hosed, he complained about how hard it was compared to Texas... I asked him how much it would cost to hunt whatever in Texas and it was ~ a months pay for me at the time, or like 1/2 my rent, or 4x what I was spending on all my hunting gear/tags/gas money for the season etc.

I tried to knock on some doors in MT for turkey and got completely shutdown. Private land access in general has been like that for me in MT/WY/CO etc. Hard No, we have outfitters.

Now hunting in MA and New England in general I've talked to folks a dozen or so times "Oh man it's crazy how empty the woods are you should have seen the place in the 80s it was a war zone. We used to do deer drives with 30 guys, now I can't find 4 buddies to come out on a weekend".

So...

1.) I think people have moved around, a lot of MA/NH/VT/MI/WI/TX etc folks who liked to hunt moved west... so more western resident hunters.

2.) The idea you can hunt private land of folks you don't know sees crazy to me... but apparently it wasn't, so that's goes to shrinking "huntable acres"

3.) Any kind of guided/drop camp/outfitter hunting has dramatically increased in price... IMHO outfitters have found they can charge double and take half as many hunters and so that's what they do, so that's less opportunity.

4.) Private land, esp winter range habitat being subdivided and developed

5.) Increased use by non-consumptive users.

Therefore likely there is a decrease in total hunters in the US, but those remaining hunters are much more likely to be hunting in the west and on public land. Sure some part of that is likely due to technology and media... but folks have been entranced by the west for 100+ years, hardly any of the big names in hunting/conservation were from the west; Leopold, Muir, Roosevelt, Powell, Grinnell... Forest and Stream precursor to Field and Stream, as noted by Randy in the interview, was based out of NYC. Again point being maybe social media has been a catalyst but it didn't cause anything... Boone was bitching about too many hunters back in his day.

I think those remaining hunters also are more likely to apply in a bunch of states in their pursuit for the last vestiges of good hunting. It's interesting, if you look at the "best units/trophy units/premium" they typically don't usually have that great of populations. Unit 2/201 in CO for instance doesn't have the most productive elk habitat in the state, actually kinda the opposite, but because the herd can't handle a ton of pressure opportunities are very limited... so way fewer hunters and a better age class. If you look at good areas as far as "recharge potential" ie ability to produce lots of animals every year, the best elk units in the US are likely the Colorado OTC units that pump out literally thousands of raghorns every year.

So yes those units are getting more applications... but I think that is kinda to be expected, and I think the only real issue is that folks 20 years ago sucked at math and didn't see it coming.

Therefore my opinion, subject to change, me, and apparently Matt and BigFin all basically agree on what's happening and that it's an issue, but I side with Bigfin in his notion that the best use of his efforts is to use the tools available to him to promote conservation. Honestly folks are going to watch and want to watch hunting TV... I'd rather they watch Randy or meateater than a lot of other stuff. I do think Matt has some great thoughts on how we should tell hunting stories and post images from hunts.

To add to this, the ability to use the internet to apply, in about 2-3 minutes per state, and to do so with only an application fee and associated plastic credit card has caused a spike as well.

Was a whole different deal 25-30 years ago when you had to submit via mail or phone call a a request for an application booklet. To know what area's to apply for you had to either have a good network of NR friends or make a bunch of phone calls. Then you had to march down to the bank, get a cashiers check for the entire tag fee, fill out a paper application, put a stamp on it and pray it got there in time. When I first starting applying all over, about 25 years ago, it wasn't uncommon for my wife and I to have $18-$20K out there rolling around in various drawings. Now? Maybe a grand or two.

Now you can wait until the last minute, see what other tags you draw or don't draw, do all of it via the net never having to know a thing or talk to anyone.

IMO, that has increased applicant numbers more than anything, the agencies have made it simple to apply all over the place.

 

[Cornell2012]

The couple in the sprinter van with paddle boards, mountain bikes, and a corgi probably have no idea what leafy spurge is.

Shots fired @wllm