Lions, wolves, black bears, grizz: elk survival in compromised habitats with lowered forage quality is compromised and leads to greater take by carnivores, and the winter.
And R1 bios are pretty clear that habitat is a big issue up there. Good habitat = better over winter survival. Bad habitat= more dead critters.
Lots of the Bob is in Region 2, including most of the winter range.
It's all excuses. A large part of the Bob burned in 1988, from Lake Mountain to Augusta...I know, I worked that fire as well as others near Alva and Inez, Rice Ridge, etc. In fact was on that fire the day some crews were burned over and it made it's largest run.
Been other burns since then in the upper Jocko, Seeley, etc.
I dont look at plant communities but 120 days a year as a biological scientist as well as another 50-60 days a year on my own time. Of course haven't been doing it for much longer than 35 years.
You're talking about country I happen to know as well, or I would argue, better than anyone alive on planet earth.
I'm not seeing this degraded habitat, I'm not seeing over utilization of shrub communities and plant diversity is as good as it gets following 10-30+ year old fires. I'm not seeing sterilized soils.
Winter range is also not showing declining conditions either. That country also isn't being developed like other places in Montana, sure some, but not to the extent it's limiting elk numbers.
I'm pretty inclined to say any biologist that wants to claim the southern half of the Bob has habitat issues that they contend is causing the low elk numbers, is full of crap. It's better now than when I started hunting there in 1979.
Was fishing Browns Lake the other day and looking at the Southern Bob winter range. Glassed marcum and mineral and didn't see elk or mule deer. Winter range looked just fine, in fact better since there's hardly any elk utilizing it.
Not buying it...been around long enough and have hunted that country for 42 years straight...and professionally have a clue what I'm looking at and seeing.
It's an over hunting issue, a lack of management issue.
I'm over with the excuses and flat assed lies...well past over them.