How long to draw NV?

[okie archer]

I might have overlooked it but I couldn't find draw odds on NVDOW. If I understand correctly you are assigned a random number and the lower your number the better off you are meaning lower numbers are drawn first. Is that correct?
Is there any way of knowing how many years of points it takes to draw a rifle pronghorn tag in NV? I know different units vary so lets just say the easiest unit to draw in.

 

[Letthemgrow]

There is no way of knowing. I'm at 18 points and still waiting. I know a guy who drew with 4.
You could draw the first year applying.

 

[rtraverdavis]

Not sure about the assigned number thing, but since Nevada’s a bonus point system you could draw this year with zero bonus points, and you could also never draw. More bonus points just means more possibilities at the chance to draw, but as long as there’s more people applying than there are tags, it’s always possible you come out with squat.

It’s a lot like gambling in Nevada’s casinos. You probably won’t win, but you could. It’s fun.

 

[dan.kirkpatrick]

ive got 11,deer,11 elk, and 11 antelope points,as well as 10 desert sheep points,,hoping one of them will draw this year for nevada

 

[Bluffgruff]

Doe tags are easier to draw.
Most people never draw a buck tag, ever.

 

[TheGrayRider]

Nevada is never a guarantee for a nonresident but definitely worth the wait and investment if you get selected.

Easier to draw other states if you just want to get out and hunt.

 

[MaddH]

I drew antelope my first year, then waited another 15 for the next. I had drawn 3 deer tags in 12 years when I was a nonresident

 

[okie archer]

Im at my 5th year applying. I apply for pronghorn, deer, sheep, and elk. Sometimes I question my return of investment but I consider NV part of my long term goals. Obviously I want to draw a sheep tag but my realistic goal would be to draw elk in 20 years of applying and draw deer and antelope at least once during that time. Not sure if that is a reasonable expectation or not. Thats over $4k in app fees at the current price. Thanks for the replies.

 

[rtraverdavis]

Im at my 5th year applying. I apply for pronghorn, deer, sheep, and elk. Sometimes I question my return of investment but I consider NV part of my long term goals. Obviously I want to draw a sheep tag but my realistic goal would be to draw elk in 20 years of applying and draw deer and antelope at least once during that time. Not sure if that is a reasonable expectation or not. Thats over $4k in app fees at the current price. Thanks for the replies.

I’m in the exact same spot as you—this will be my 5th year applying in Nevada—but my goals are a little different. I’ve also questioned the ROI at times, but the fact of the matter is I really want to hunt Nevada, particularly for deer with a rifle. It’s worth it to me to have that chance at a deer tag (which does keep getting better and better each year) and also have the very slight but very possible chance at other species as well in the meantime.

There are plenty of guys on this board who can (and love to) explain why Nevada is a bad investment for NRs. Personally, I’ve decided not to worry about it. I apply in four states, and Nevada is the only wildcard. I don’t ever plan on it hitting, but when it does, it’s going to be awesome.

 

[Desk Pop]

I drew a good rifle antelope buck tag in 6 years. I also drew a good late rifle deer hunt in 10 years. Sitting on 13 for elk and sheep. I will probably draw elk in my lifetime but not sheep. I have already gotten my ROI if I never draw again.

 

[2rocky]

Strict odds are poor across the board when you look at NV compared to other states with preference points. You can never really count on being the "next one in line". But your chances go up each year becaus each point is squared and you have that many "chances " of having a low draw number. Because of that I never just buy NV points, i just apply for hunts of a lifetime.

 

[Gr8bawana]

There are plenty of guys on this board who can (and love to) explain why Nevada is a bad investment for NRs

Oh I'm sure they'll pipe up very soon.

Obviously I want to draw a sheep tag but my realistic goal would be to draw elk in 20 years of applying and draw deer and antelope at least once during that time.

It's tough even for us residents simply because we have so few tags to begin with, especially for sheep. Last year in my first choice area for sheep with 3 tags total, I was among 6 people with 14 bonus points yet someone with only 6 points and another person with 10 points drew tags. The 3rd tag was drawn by someone with 22 points.
It's extra tough for non-res hunters for sure but there's always a chance.

 

[ImBillT]

There’s no way to know for sure, BUT squaring bonus point heavily weights the probability of drawing a tag toward the later end of the spectrum.

Let’s say there is 1 tag per 20 applicants. With no point system, tags are evenly distributed across your timeline. In other words, you’re just as likely to draw in your first year as in your twentieth, and on average a person will draw a tag once per twenty years.

With a simple bonus point system, and 1 tag per 20 applicants, its 3.82 times more likely that you’ll draw your tag in the second ten years than in the first ten years. (In your first ten years of applying, you’ll have had 55 random numbers, but by your twentieth year you’ll have had 210 random numbers. 210/55=3.82) But, everyone will still draw roughly one tag per twenty years. Points only increased the probability that you would have to wait.

By squaring points, you become 11.31 times more likely that you’ll draw in your second ten years than in your first ten years.(In the first ten you’ll have had 213 random numbers. By twenty years you’ll have had 2408 random numbers. 2408/213=11.31) BUT each applicant will still draw about one tag per twenty years. Points did not increase the frequency with which you will draw, they only made you more likely to draw toward the end of the twenty years.

How long will it take to draw a rifle prongalope tag in NV? That question cannot be answered. You would be wise to look at the ratio of tags to applicants, then plan on it taking at least that long. If that’s ok with you, dive in feet first. If you get lucky, you might draw a tag this year. If you get unlucky, draw odds may get worse in the next twenty years and it may take a little longer than that. On the other hand, if it’s not okay with you to apply every year, knowing that it will most likely be 10-20yrs before you get your tag, then I’d recommend you spend your money elsewhere.

 

[rtraverdavis]

^ That didn’t take long!

Oh I'm sure they'll pipe up very soon.

 

[ImBillT]

Im at my 5th year applying. I apply for pronghorn, deer, sheep, and elk. Sometimes I question my return of investment but I consider NV part of my long term goals. Obviously I want to draw a sheep tag but my realistic goal would be to draw elk in 20 years of applying and draw deer and antelope at least once during that time. Not sure if that is a reasonable expectation or not. Thats over $4k in app fees at the current price. Thanks for the replies.

A few years ago I did the math, and for the elk hunts I was looking at I had a 60-80% chance of drawing one over a twenty year time period.

 

[Gr8bawana]

^ That didn’t take long!

I guess he just can't help himself.

 

[ImBillT]

I guess he just can't help himself.

Sooo...you chime in to every NV thread and tell people to spend money cause there’s a chance, and I chime in to every NV thread and tell them what their chances are. I guess neither of us can help ourselves.

Can you tell me what is so wrong with giving NRs a clear picture of what to expect from the NV draw and letting them decide if they want to get in or not?

You’ve never given anyone a clear picture of anything. You just appeal to their emotions and entice them to spend money.

 

[Gr8bawana]

There’s no way to know for sure, BUT squaring bonus point heavily weights the probability of drawing a tag toward the later end of the spectrum.

Let’s say there is 1 tag per 20 applicants. With no point system, tags are evenly distributed across your timeline. In other words, you’re just as likely to draw in your first year as in your twentieth, and on average a person will draw a tag once per twenty years.

With a simple bonus point system, and 1 tag per 20 applicants, its 3.82 times more likely that you’ll draw your tag in the second ten years than in the first ten years. (In your first ten years of applying, you’ll have had 55 random numbers, but by your twentieth year you’ll have had 210 random numbers. 210/55=3.82) But, everyone will still draw roughly one tag per twenty years. Points only increased the probability that you would have to wait.

By squaring points, you become 11.31 times more likely that you’ll draw in your second ten years than in your first ten years.(In the first ten you’ll have had 213 random numbers. By twenty years you’ll have had 2408 random numbers. 2408/213=11.31) BUT each applicant will still draw about one tag per twenty years. Points did not increase the frequency with which you will draw, they only made you more likely to draw toward the end of the twenty years.

How long will it take to draw a rifle prongalope tag in NV? That question cannot be answered. You would be wise to look at the ratio of tags to applicants, then plan on it taking at least that long. If that’s ok with you, dive in feet first. If you get lucky, you might draw a tag this year. If you get unlucky, draw odds may get worse in the next twenty years and it may take a little longer than that. On the other hand, if it’s not okay with you to apply every year, knowing that it will most likely be 10-20yrs before you get your tag, then I’d recommend you spend your money elsewhere.

 

[Desk Pop]

Nevada has a great system if you started 20 years ago, a good system if you started 10 years ago, but still a system in which you have a chance at some of the best tags in the west if you are starting today.

Nevada should be approached as a long term strategy state.

 

[MaddH]

Hoping to draw bull elk, 18 resident points