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WY Price Hike Implications

RunNGunSC

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Application strategy articles are starting to come out. While I’m very unluck, I like to contribute to conservation and love buying a few months of hope to keep my mind occupied.

What will the steep price increase do to tag demand in WY? The obvious impact is a large shift in applications from special to regular, significantly hurting random odds and to a lesser extent continuing to drive point creep for elk. I think low point holders were a good amount of the ones “buying better odd.” I think demand for most special elk tags will still exist but some will be unsold and fall back into the regular draw. Elk draw results will likely see a more modest impact based on high budgetless demand, as compared to deer and pronghorn. I think that success only drives us closer to privatization of wildlife or at least profiteering. I wonder how much higher NR tag numbers will offset the impact, especially for the general tag. WY will increase general NR tags and several units have added/split hunts to increase tags (added type 9 or type 2). Adding the type 9 tags lowers the value of a quality type 1 tag, IMO.

However, I can’t see a ton of deer and pronghorn tags going for such a premium price. Maybe the top hunts warrant that price, but will demand for non-glory quality hunts exceed supply in the special draw? It will be interesting to see where draw odds shake out after a couple of years. I think the results in year one may be counterintuitive, similar to what seemed like increased demand for NM muzzleloader tags after increased restrictions. I think point creep for deer and pronghorn over the next few years will be significant; especially when combining the change with continuation of tag cuts from this past winter.

The application strategy game is part of the fun. What is your hypothesis? How material will the impact on draw odds be for DEA? Will the rich now be able to buy annual quality hunts or will the odds in the special simply be 2-4X better? Can’t wait for Randy’s application strategy video.
 
I'm thinking about the only place that it is going to move the needle enough to matter is on the mid level draws. If it took 5 points last year in the special it might only take 4 or maybe even 3 this year. This first year it still might not show up in full because some people are going to be bailing on points and using the special as a way to make the most bang for the buck. If you've spent $1,000 on points over the years then spending an extra $600 or $1,200 for the year you want to use them isn't going to be a deal breaker.

I think the general tag for elk might be close to a sure thing with 1 point in the special but don't think it drops all the way to zero points like it was back in 2009 - 2012.
 
I think very few who were willing to pay special price before will flinch at new price, and some who haven't before who are feeling desperate will jump in the special hoping for better odds. My prediction is special will continue to be barely better than regular.
 
I see more of an impact on deer and PH than most of you, but I agree that there will still be high demand for the best hunts. I just think you will see some second choices awarded in the special and some easier to draw tag reverting back to the regular draw.
 
It’ll be interesting to see looking forward to watching from the side lines as I continue to stack the points up.
 
I think very few who were willing to pay special price before will flinch at new price, and some who haven't before who are feeling desperate will jump in the special hoping for better odds. My prediction is special will continue to be barely better than regular.
I think this is correct for elk. Not sure who will really jump in line to pay $1200 for a pronghorn tag. Select few maybe. If I was NR I probably would honestly.
 
It will not help nr draw odds at all and the outfitters will be back at trying to get a outfitter draw through after they relize it did nothing but make things worse.

The removal of the elk cap will add a few tags but nothing that's going to help slow point creep the west region of going to take a minimum of 6 in the regular or special thats where everyone will want to be
 
As much as I wouldn't do it, I perceive that there are a lot of people with money who are willing to spend it.

QQ
Agree with this a buddy and his dad burnt 2 points this fall in the special on cow tags only to shoot a small calf. I think he got his belly full and doesn't plan to return with the new price increase.
Most likely leaving his antelope and deer points on the table. I am seriously considering the same with 5 elk, 4 antelope and 3 deer. Haven't quite made my mind up yet.
 
Agree with this a buddy and his dad burnt 2 points this fall in the special on cow tags only to shoot a small calf. I think he got his belly full and doesn't plan to return with the new price increase.
Most likely leaving his antelope and deer points on the table. I am seriously considering the same with 5 elk, 4 antelope and 3 deer. Haven't quite made my mind up yet.
Keep plugging that 50 for a elk point in and just don’t care about it for 10-15 years you’ll be glad you did
 
I think this is correct for elk. Not sure who will really jump in line to pay $1200 for a pronghorn tag. Select few maybe. If I was NR I probably would honestly.
Yeah I guess I was mostly thinking about elk, probably less so with deer and pronghorn.
 
I am hopeless at making predictions on draw odds, so wont even try!

But I do suspect there will be people like me that will scrape the money together and roll the dice in the special. I only hunt the west once a year and if I got a great tag in the special, due to a decent improvement in the odds with the price increase, that would be fine by me.

Hunting adventures are important to my son and I and I'm willing to play the game. But I definitely understand the down side of people being locked out due to the price increase, and that is very unfortunate.
 
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Im glad I live here. I wouldnt be putting in for the special. Most units didnt even make a difference with the special, still needed the same amount of points to draw it. There are a few descent elk areas that are easier to draw as a non resident than as a resident, though.

Im going to battle the rest of you crazies on the first for some Idaho tags. I can hunt elk and deer for half the price of the wyoming special elk.
 
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