Caribou Gear

How long to draw NV?

MaddH

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Jan 8, 2020
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55
Location
Nevada
I’ve drawn some great tags and had great hunts including an 83” net B&C antelope. I feel it’s worth the chance. Drew a great deer tag last year with only 2 points, sure wasn’t expecting that
 

ImBillT

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Oct 29, 2018
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2,124
This thread exists because the OP wants some semblance of a time line. Obviously someone cares....that’s why he started the thread. I gave him information, and a means by which to evaluate the time period he should be prepared for. You have never made a statement that useful about NV draw odds.

I also find it comical that you respond to my posts almost without fail yet claim not to care. Yes, “no one” includes you. Apparently, at least two people in this thread care.
 

Cammy

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Jun 25, 2014
Messages
275
Try this. Find a random number generator on-line. Set the parameters to pull random numbers between 1 and 99,000,000. Square your points and pull that number of numbers from the random number generator. The lowest number that turns up is your draw number. From there you are racked and stacked amongst the other applicants. Now you don't get to "pull the slot machine handle" to determine your random number as the State computer does that for you. ImBILLT responded to my post regarding "Nevada non-resident 2021" over in the Tag, application and drawing room that has some pretty deep statistical analysis regarding draw odds (see post #46).
 

ImBillT

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Oct 29, 2018
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2,124
Wow, doesn't Go Hunt have some potentially useful information? Someone should post that as an illustration :)
Yes they do, and actually, their odds are going to be more accurate than if you squared everyone’s points and went with your number of chances compared to the total number of chances, because if a zero point holder gets drawn, then only one chance is removed from the hat, but if a 20pt holder is drawn, then 401 chances come out of the hat(he can’t draw more than one tag), AND because there is also a slight chance at a person ahead of you drawing a different choice and thus not being included. Due to the extremely limited number of tags, these effects are small. You can figure that out quickly by comparing the odds from GoHunt(derived from draw simulation) to odds that you might calculate quickly by hand(these effects can be accounted for in a hand calculation, but it’s not quick and easy. It involves using all of the data from every hunt code to determine the probability that someone ahead of you chose drew something else[which can be calculated] and thus was not in the running for the tag in question, and the probability that the applicants who draw the first few tags for a hunt code have lots of points or very few.(that can also be calculated). Again, both effects are small whenever there are very few tags.

Probably not a good idea to post screen shots of draw odds from goHunt. Surely that violates some terms of service.(I definitely have not read them).

Back to the OP. The simplest way of viewing odds(applicants/tags or NR applicants/NR tags if you’re a NR) is the bet way to get a sense of how long of a ride to be prepared for. In a random state, it’s just as likely to be anywhere on that timeline. With bonus points, it’s more likely to be toward the second half than the first half, and with squared bonus points it’s more likely to be toward the end than in the first half. But hey, with preference points it’s guaranteed to be AT THE END.
 

lastlight

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Joined
Mar 30, 2018
Messages
293
Location
Northern California
Those who’ve drawn “x” amount of tags in the last 10-20 years for species “y” don’t relate to the guys jumping in the draw today. Take a look for yourself and any random unit for every species and you’ll find 2-3 times as many applicants in 2020 compared to 2017. All of our odds are diminishing every year because demand has sky rocketed and supply for the most part is in decline (mule deer) and slightly increasing (elk NV, but not nearly enough for supply).
 

Gr8bawana

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Joined
Jul 14, 2013
Messages
4,278
Location
Nevada
Those who’ve drawn “x” amount of tags in the last 10-20 years for species “y” don’t relate to the guys jumping in the draw today. Take a look for yourself and any random unit for every species and you’ll find 2-3 times as many applicants in 2020 compared to 2017. All of our odds are diminishing every year because demand has sky rocketed and supply for the most part is in decline (mule deer) and slightly increasing (elk NV, but not nearly enough for supply).
How is that possible? We regularly keep being told by a few people on this forum how hunting is dying because of hunter numbers going down every year. :unsure:
 

lastlight

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Joined
Mar 30, 2018
Messages
293
Location
Northern California
How is that possible? We regularly keep being told by a few people on this forum how hunting is dying because of hunter numbers going down every year. :unsure:

It’s been explained a lot and pretty easy to see the numbers are declining in the east (due to loss of private access) but sky rocketing in the west do to all this social media shit. I feel it’s like a cancer that won’t stop growing. As if there aren’t already 50 how to apply in “x” state videos let’s make 10 more. Let’s make more come to this region and hunt OTC archery, whoops that’s being turned to limited now sorry everyone. I get it, we need voices. But we need to grow the resource first and not just hope we will still be able to get a tag or two a year in the future.
 
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HUNTNNW

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Joined
Nov 13, 2012
Messages
216
as a NR my wife and myself drew deer after 2 years of applying. We now have 5 points this year for deer. We drew what was called by many a bad unit or just to many tags. It was the best mule deer hunt we had ever been on. Probably saw 40 or so bucks, not a single person out of their rig hiking. Both shot very nice bucks
 

brownbear932008

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Joined
Jul 15, 2011
Messages
2,175
Location
SWVA
It’s been explained a lot and pretty easy to see the numbers are declining in the east (due to loss of private access) but sky rocketing in the west do to all this social media shit. I feel it’s like a cancer that won’t stop growing. As if there aren’t already 50 how to apply in “x” state videos let’s make 10 more. Let’s make more come to this region and hunt OTC archery, whoops that’s being turned to limited now sorry everyone. I get it, we need voices. But we need to grow the resource first and not just hope we will still be able to get a tag or two a year in the future.
I couldn't agree more, an area I have hunted for years here in the East is also being over run the last few years because of a handful of YouTube channels in circulation. In the last two years I've met guys from at least four different States in the area after deer. It was an area that before the Tube I never once saw a non resident in.
To answer the OPs question hey if you have the extra cash apply in NV. I quit that point game this year after several years of buying the license and points. Someone's gotta draw but as a newer applicant you can't deny the odds are very very slim of drawing there for most species. Having said that a friend of a friend killed a darn nice 340 bull last season on his tag with ZERO points. Think the number of apps in that zone were in the 2,000 to 3,000 range and his odds were well below 1%. What can you say on occasion someone gets struck by lightning.
 

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