Anybody Buying Yet? Where’s the Bottom?

[Irrelevant]

i have comically bad timing.

You and me both. That's why I stopped trying.

 

[brymoore]

You and me both. That's why I stopped trying.

DCA!

 

[longbow51]

If you try to time the market, you'll just go crazy. While I'm only recently back in, and mostly in dividend stocks, I learned that a long time ago when I was actively investing.

 

[Irrelevant]

DCA!

Yes I never stopped doing that with the real money, but that's not as fun or exciting.

 

[SAJ-99]

@SAJ-99 What are your current thoughts on the potential market impacts of the pending IPOs for Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI? Who is most likely to be impacted by the potential "Liquidity Drain" and potential fast tracking into the S&P?

SpaceX numbers are trickling out... $1.75T in valuation. That is a Price to Rev of almost 90x. So not cheap. The bad news is that S&P will not make an exception to include it in the index. Elon is relying on retail traders to want this. There are some rumors that demand from the institutional space has been muted. This is probably why Jamie Dimon was shilling the IPO last week.

 

[LopeHunter]

SpaceX numbers are trickling out... $1.75T in valuation. That is a Price to Rev of almost 90x. So not cheap. The bad news is that S&P will not make an exception to include it in the index. Elon is relying on retail traders to want this. There are some rumors that demand from the institutional space has been muted. This is probably why Jamie Dimon was shilling the IPO last week.

If I wanted to go buy big in Space X or OpenAI or Anthropic but the big ol’ buckets of stocks (VTI, VOO, VT, … ) are not having to blindly pay “market” to scoop up shares from a small float on Day 1 of “shiny new” IPO then I am having to sell existing holdings that are no shinier and special than a week prior. Demand for what I want to sell could be stagnant while supply rises for a few days.

Seems a recipe for popular “shiny but not quite as shiny” stock names to fall in price as individuals who are brash risk-takers (perhaps ignorant risk-taking though blissfully confident, I have my popcorn ready) because need to free up cash to buy buy buy new shiny IPO. I doubt these individual buyers will dump much Home Depot but might jettison Meta/Google/Microsoft/Nividia and similar names.

I live for this chaos. Is better than the smell of napalm in the morning. Surf’s up!!

 

[rogerthat]

This AI FOMO hysteria isn’t going to end well. It all feels eerily similar to 1999. I bet these IPOs will be the peak. Bought intel 8 months ago hoping for a double in a few years. Sold my entire position. It’s likely this could be a mistake but 500% in 8 months is whack

 

[Blue Steel]

This was interesting

 

[SAJ-99]

This was interesting

Gotta love podcast that explain why you got kicked in the teeth AFTER you get kicked in the teeth. I think the most important line was "Market making algos will remain cautious...". Might get some volatility out of that. But there are a bunch of pros on TV today telling everyone to remain calm.

 

[Mallardsx2]

Skim enough cash to ride out 16 months to 2 years.

Super good advice right here for sure.

Some people actually say (if you can swing it) to skim enough cash to ride out an entire presidential term. Not so sure I agree with that entirely because that is a lot of growth that could be missed out on but I guess if you lived modestly and had several million in a retirement account then it might not be bad tactic.

 

[brymoore]

Average economic downturn is 10-11 months.

Great Recession was 18 months.

Great Depression was 10 years.

Plan according to your risk tolerance. My retired buddy moved three years of budget to cash with T2 election. He didn’t want to have to go back to work.

 

[Flatrock]

Gotta love podcast that explain why you got kicked in the teeth AFTER you get kicked in the teeth. I think the most important line was "Market making algos will remain cautious...". Might get some volatility out of that. But there are a bunch of pros on TV today telling everyone to remain calm.

For the past month, there's been all sorts of talk about how stretched the tech rally was. A pullback is a surprise to nobody.

Do you disagree with the pros? I agree 100% that people should stay calm.

 

[Montsota]

Average in...average out. I usually buy a little every 10 days, regardless of if it's up, down, sideways, or spinning in circles. Worked so far.

 

[SAJ-99]

For the past month, there's been all sorts of talk about how stretched the tech rally was. A pullback is a surprise to nobody.

Do you disagree with the pros? I agree 100% that people should stay calm.

The same people screaming buy!buy!buy! for semis at ATH on Wednesday are telling you to stay calm 4 days later down 10%. Today I see a bunch talking about rotation. The fact is, pro or not, none of them know anything and all them are talking their book. Remember that pros were yelling buy! as the dotcom bubble crashed and it took 15yrs for the Nasdaq to reach its prior high. Pros also had "buy" recommendations on Lehman Brothers right before it declared bankruptcy. Whether they are right or wrong is not for me to say because time will tell, but keep in mind that they get paid either way. Keep DCA'ing and pay attention to risk management.

 

[Flatrock]

The same people screaming buy!buy!buy! for semis at ATH on Wednesday are telling you to stay calm 4 days later down 10%. Today I see a bunch talking about rotation. The fact is, pro or not, none of them know anything and all them are talking their book. Remember that pros were yelling buy! as the dotcom bubble crashed and it took 15yrs for the Nasdaq to reach its prior high. Pros also had "buy" recommendations on Lehman Brothers right before it declared bankruptcy. Whether they are right or wrong is not for me to say because time will tell, but keep in mind that they get paid either way. Keep DCA'ing and pay attention to risk management.

We must listen to different commentary then because almost everyone I've listened to lately has been very cautious about chasing. They were saying don't chase a month ago. The guy in that video, Josh Brown, has been saying for the last month to not get too crazy with the move and don't be piling in.

Earnings projections have skyrocketed for the semis. Many semi companies are forecast to earn 10-20x or more in 2027 vs 2025. Maybe that doesn't pan out but if it does, the recent move is justified.

 

[Addicting]

DCA!

??? Am I the only one who doesn’t know what this means?

 

[SAJ-99]

??? Am I the only one who doesn’t know what this means?

Dollar cost average it means put in a little on a regular schedule.

 

[SAJ-99]

We must listen to different commentary then because almost everyone I've listened to lately has been very cautious about chasing. They were saying don't chase a month ago. The guy in that video, Josh Brown, has been saying for the last month to not get too crazy with the move and don't be piling in.

Earnings projections have skyrocketed for the semis. Many semi companies are forecast to earn 10-20x or more in 2027 vs 2025. Maybe that doesn't pan out but if it does, the recent move is justified.

I given them shit because they publish multiple podcasts every week and all of them have a disclaimer about it not being investment advice. Just noise I guess.

 

[Bonasababy]

Average economic downturn is 10-11 months.

Great Recession was 18 months.

Great Depression was 10 years.

Plan according to your risk tolerance. My retired buddy moved three years of budget to cash with T2 election. He didn’t want to have to go back to work.

Should always look at not just past performance but current factors in play and how they might affect future performance.

Both Vanguard and Fidelity were telling me they expected a lower than the last few decades return for domestic equities to last for some years. This started around a year ago. They also suggested foreign equities are better poised for returns given US is closer to topping out and so much of our market is dominated by tech, a highly volatile category.

But yes risk tolerance is where you have to start. I am telling my kids to be aggressive, they all have 30 years or so before retirement. Being already retired I have a lot more focus on risk than returns, particularly in the early years of retirement when big losses can really set you back.

That said, if I had a crystal ball and influence over it, the impeachment next winter followed by dropped tariffs, better foreign relations, and a return to sanity in economic policy (or at least listening to the experts) might turn my outlook more rosy in a hurry.

But then I did what everyone should do but not as many as should do--waited on retirement until projections showed we could make it 30 years or so with below past average returns and inflation levels.

 

[Bonasababy]

Dollar cost average it means put in a little on a regular schedule.

The value of that is that you buy shares at both low prices and high prices and over time, make more in the long run.

It's a different scenario though if you get a windfall--not often wise to just plug that into cash and slowly put some in the market.

DCA works great for ongoing contributions into a retirement account for the bulk of us who can't or couldn't max out our giving to them.