Anybody Buying Yet? Where’s the Bottom?

[Irrelevant]

i have comically bad timing.

You and me both. That's why I stopped trying.

 

[brymoore]

You and me both. That's why I stopped trying.

DCA!

 

[longbow51]

If you try to time the market, you'll just go crazy. While I'm only recently back in, and mostly in dividend stocks, I learned that a long time ago when I was actively investing.

 

[Irrelevant]

DCA!

Yes I never stopped doing that with the real money, but that's not as fun or exciting.

 

[SAJ-99]

@SAJ-99 What are your current thoughts on the potential market impacts of the pending IPOs for Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI? Who is most likely to be impacted by the potential "Liquidity Drain" and potential fast tracking into the S&P?

SpaceX numbers are trickling out... $1.75T in valuation. That is a Price to Rev of almost 90x. So not cheap. The bad news is that S&P will not make an exception to include it in the index. Elon is relying on retail traders to want this. There are some rumors that demand from the institutional space has been muted. This is probably why Jamie Dimon was shilling the IPO last week.

 

[LopeHunter]

SpaceX numbers are trickling out... $1.75T in valuation. That is a Price to Rev of almost 90x. So not cheap. The bad news is that S&P will not make an exception to include it in the index. Elon is relying on retail traders to want this. There are some rumors that demand from the institutional space has been muted. This is probably why Jamie Dimon was shilling the IPO last week.

If I wanted to go buy big in Space X or OpenAI or Anthropic but the big ol’ buckets of stocks (VTI, VOO, VT, … ) are not having to blindly pay “market” to scoop up shares from a small float on Day 1 of “shiny new” IPO then I am having to sell existing holdings that are no shinier and special than a week prior. Demand for what I want to sell could be stagnant while supply rises for a few days.

Seems a recipe for popular “shiny but not quite as shiny” stock names to fall in price as individuals who are brash risk-takers (perhaps ignorant risk-taking though blissfully confident, I have my popcorn ready) because need to free up cash to buy buy buy new shiny IPO. I doubt these individual buyers will dump much Home Depot but might jettison Meta/Google/Microsoft/Nividia and similar names.

I live for this chaos. Is better than the smell of napalm in the morning. Surf’s up!!