Anybody Buying Yet? Where’s the Bottom?

SAJ-99

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The only people that are going to make money on this move are the lawyers on both sides litigating every little step. This is noise more than substance - little will change either direction.
The thing that worries me is the section that could imply that the administration will overlook just about anything if the business can justify the action on an economic basis. Not sure that isn't already happening though after looking at some of the changes at EPA and AG office.
 

VikingsGuy

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The thing that worries me is the section that could imply that the administration will overlook just about anything if the business can justify the action on an economic basis. Not sure that isn't already happening though after looking at some of the changes at EPA and AG office.
And then litigation will ensue.
 

Sytes

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This, imo, is typical koolAid. No way in heck would cloud/gaming call for a positive earnings and outlook... $410 from $355? They're high.

(Least I hope this is a bunch of hoopla...) If this turns to be a green machine, MU will ride its tail and add red to my play. Hopefully, this rides more along Morgan Stanley's analysis. $282.
 

SAJ-99

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It's an example of *hope catching the ride upwards. This Executive Order is another catalyst for *hope.

If hope prevails, this is great for the longs. I'm short because I believe we're in for another drop as past recoveries have shown. *Hope is a very fragile egg to dance upon however, it's hard pressed to ignore the green North Shore wave many are riding.
THAT is my interest for my hobby swing trading. I am missing some green and think this Executive Order may propel this for today- Thursday w/ a pullback Friday and if drama does not blow it's lid over the weekend, this "Nobody knows the stock market like I do" Trump card order, this may propel for a green Monday-Tuesday... Then? I believe a correction will play it's evil hand... And I'll be back in the green. 😉😄

Meanwhile, the China/U.S. battle is intensifying and that helps my puts, as mentioned above. I wish it would accelerate... Haha!

It makes me wonder though... From an Intra/swing trading perspective, I'm on the fence whether to play this for calls vs puts for the week. I'm thinking... it's a buy / call opportunity. Unless this fizzles out end of day...
I don't see anything that says the market cares much about this EO. The US/China battle is interesting. I don't expect it to get better until after the election. The political narrative on both sides is being formed and they can't switch it up as we get closer to the election.

I think a lot of what we see is people thinking things will return to normal. Even those unemployed people who are making more money with unemployment than they were working probably think they will easily be able to find a job after the unemployment ends. I am not sure that is the case. We see retailers like JC penny, Pier One, and Neiman Marcus, filing for bankruptcy and closing stores. Food companies like Specialty's and Garden Fresh are closing for good. Sur La Table and Hertz are on the edge. There will be more. And a lot of the small, independent places will go and we will never hear anything. Bigger will be better and the AMZN, MSFT, AAPL and the like will benefit. They will get bigger and the scale leads to efficiencies, which leads to more output per worker (and less workers). The only thing that might slow that is a Blue wave in November and the narrative of empowering employees gains a little momentum.

After 30yrs in the investment business, what I know is that we are terrible at modeling the future. Maybe it is human nature, but we tend to think the future will look like the past once we eliminate a specific variable. We don't see derivative impacts. I guess Economics is called the dismal science for a reason.
 

neffa3

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What are the thoughts regarding the election how it may play into the covid response, and therefore the market?
 

SAJ-99

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What are the thoughts regarding the election how it may play into the covid response, and therefore the market?
my $0.02. Opinions will vary, but it is an interesting thought process. I doubt it changes the COVID response much. By that time we will know if there is a rebound in cases. After all, 5 months is an eternity in this thing. We might have treatments or even vaccines that show solid efficacy. What I am sure of, and said this weeks ago, is that everything from this point forward will/should be viewed in a political perspective. We have been trained to do so and it is self-reinforcing mechanism. The market has already entered a stage where it is less shocked by any news. Things that would have been headline-grabbing 5 years ago are replaced within days. I'm not sure if that is because we are all inundated with news, we have become conditioned in our response to fit it into our personal narrative, or both.

It might be that the Senate races are as important as the Presidential race. The market might look at Democrats bringing anti-monopoly investigations, more regulations on big tech, labor-friendly laws, universal healthcare, etc. The market will react to polls on those important races, but I don't know how much emphasis we can put on polls. Regardless, if you are asking if things will change much, I doubt it. This experience is simply revealing the structural problems this economy had before that we overlooked because the broad economic measures seemed so good. Participation rate still too low, especially for those college-educated. Unemployment for those without some college was already close to 20% in April, versus 8% for those with. Heck, the avg hourly earnings jumped almost 4.5% in April from March because low-earners were the first to be cut. The skills gap exists and is only going to get wider.
 
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