BigHornRam
Well-known member
The transition will go forward, when and if it makes economic sense. The markets will ultimately decide what wins and what does not.
Anybody Buying Yet? Where’s the Bottom?
- Thread starter NEWHunter
- Start date
SAJ-99
Well-known member
The market with a boost from Putin and OPEC.
BigHornRam
Well-known member
Current example of market deciding what is not making the cut.......
www.bloomberg.com
GE Cuts Hundreds of Jobs at Onshore Wind Unit, With More to Come
General Electric Co. is slashing jobs at its onshore wind turbine manufacturing business in a restructuring of its key renewable energy unit to counter mounting losses, according to a person familiar with the matter.
www.bloomberg.com
BigHornRam
Well-known member
Mixed messages from the administration.
White House Calls For Less Reliance On OPEC As It Blocks Domestic Drilling
John Kirby said on Wednesday that the U.S. needs to be less reliant on OPEC and other foreign actors; however, the Biden admin has blocked oil drilling.
dailycaller.com
noharleyyet
Well-known member
Scream, we're not even whispering energy independence. We're begging regimes diametrically opposed to us...and that is back to the markets.
D
Deleted member 28227
Guest
I like Carter's speech but he cuts right to the point without all the window dressing... I guess folks realized you have to add ample sugar to medicine.
We waste A LOT of energy, [insert hunting out of corolla joke] and we have been once again been brought back to a similar position to the 70s.
Certainly the shale boom has secured our short term energy independence, but it is short term. Especially if we aren't in fact at peak oil consumption. Reserve curves look wildly different depending on usage.
You're spot on with solar and China, there really isn't a one technology to fix it all approach, but that doesn't mean the status quo is tenable.
I think if we are being real, it is in our (US) best interest to become a large energy exporter, that means doing everything we can to reduce consumption, to develop alternatives, and to build export infrastructure.
I'd be a proponent of a pipeline out of the Marcellus + LNG terminal, a new west coast terminal, but then also a lot more residential solar, nuclear, fuel efficiency standards and EVs.
There is an incredible amount of BS in the energy conversation; NE is ostensibly full send on Green, but at the same time still using fuel oil instead of NG, even though the one of the largest gas fields in the world is right there, simply converting everything to gas (domestic + electricity generation) would reduce our carbo foot print dramatically and actually help us hit Paris Climate accord targets.
So in fact more OG on the east coast is actually the "climate" solution.
I like Carter's speech again, because it was pragmatic... at a time before the Bakken and Shale it was pro-coal.
Not sure I totally agree with the Rice bros on everything, and I think the presentation oversells the idea a bit (fossil fuels are in fact not renewable and limited) but I think this slide conceptually is spot on.
BigHornRam
Well-known member
A lot of good comments and observations here @wllm . I agree with most of it.
D
Deleted member 28227
Guest
There is also a major market component to that, no one is paying for land right now. I think if you compared private leases to federal you'd see similar trends. Most MA activity has been solely focused on PDP value, and budgets are going towards drilling with very little land $s.Mixed messages from the administration.
White House Calls For Less Reliance On OPEC As It Blocks Domestic Drilling
John Kirby said on Wednesday that the U.S. needs to be less reliant on OPEC and other foreign actors; however, the Biden admin has blocked oil drilling.
NM and maybe offshore? Are the only places I think you could actually sell fed leases today.
Harder to define, but I think a more accurate measure of an administrations stance towards OG would be on the actual permitting of wells.
We have a bunch of threads on why it's actually a good thing, but it is a fact that a 2,000 BOEd well in WY isn't as economic as a 1,000 BOEd well in OK because of all the state and federal stipulations. If you can only drill for half the year, and if it's extremely difficult have a stable drill schedule you aren't going to get development, and that means less service companies, which means higher costs to drill... if your Cactus Drilling why send rigs to WY that will run intermittently when they can run 24/7/365 in other states.
I'm not entirely sure if the BLM policy has changed all that much Trump to Biden in that respect, certainly when Biden first came into office, but it has opened up.
There is also the fact that almost every BLM lease sale becomes the target of an environmental lawsuit. The most recent Powder lease sale was super anemic and I think that was part of it, who wants to pay for a lease that's going to be wrapped up in court for 5 years.
I’m not sure if you’re aware but we do have a little bit of oil here.
The electrical grid will not support the transition as you put it. As much as rolling blackouts sound like the super fun time in the Kansas summer heat I’m not really interested.
Only being able to drive 100 miles while pulling a trailer with my pick up, I’m not interested.
If they actually wanted to fix the problem and not line the pockets of the Chinese companies there are so heavily invested in they would like heavily into nuclear energy. It still doesn’t change that the electrical grid in most of the country is two steps above dog crap.
Oil and natural gas are the answer now and will be into the foreseeable future.
BigHornRam
Well-known member
Back to the topic of what people are buying today. Energy is up and Nasdaq is down, and you only get mugged when you short American o&g........
The future is harnessing power.
The minerals for such are dominated by China. U.S. and China economic wars will dramatically shift when that time comes.
U.S. needs to pull it's head out of the sand regarding "Clean Energy" and focus on nuclear energy. This is the means to contend with the upcoming new leading world power.
meh, I'll be ashes in some old remnants of a fire ring by then however our children will find arm twisting when the balance of world power shifts to China.
My dog wagged and distracted me briefly when I saw this "FACT SHEET".
Biden-Harris Administration, Companies Announce Major Investments to Expand Domestic Critical Minerals Supply Chain, Breaking Dependence on China and Boosting Sustainable Practices
www.whitehouse.gov
And to keep this on market mojo:
ETF: LIT and NLR
my two coppers
The minerals for such are dominated by China. U.S. and China economic wars will dramatically shift when that time comes.
U.S. needs to pull it's head out of the sand regarding "Clean Energy" and focus on nuclear energy. This is the means to contend with the upcoming new leading world power.
meh, I'll be ashes in some old remnants of a fire ring by then however our children will find arm twisting when the balance of world power shifts to China.
My dog wagged and distracted me briefly when I saw this "FACT SHEET".
Biden-Harris Administration, Companies Announce Major Investments to Expand Domestic Critical Minerals Supply Chain, Breaking Dependence on China and Boosting Sustainable Practices
FACT SHEET: Securing a Made in America Supply Chain for Critical Minerals | The White House
Biden-Harris Administration, Companies Announce Major Investments to Expand Domestic Critical Minerals Supply Chain, Breaking Dependence on China and Boosting Sustainable Practices Critical minerals provide the building blocks for many modern technologies and are essential to our national...
And to keep this on market mojo:
ETF: LIT and NLR
my two coppers
SAJ-99
Well-known member
Well aware. See my previous post saying being a relatively high-cost producer of a global commodity is not a good position to be in. We are price a price-taker, rather than price-maker. Only thing that saves us is almost all the trades continue to be settled in USD.
The rest I generally agree with, in principle at least. The answer is "All of the above."...or 85% of us have to go.
Unlike Rand Paul, I believe the US government has a role. Just like it had role in the Alaska Pipeline, and the development of hydraulic fracking, and all the other things we enjoy today a label with the fantastical belief that our 'free-market economy' worked perfectly to get it to us. I also believe in American ingenuity that will drive technological improvement in solar panel efficiency, and the build of small scale nuclear, and energy storage, and more efficient electrical grids. But none of it will be free...
BigHornRam
Well-known member
Problem #1 with nuclear is cost. It is expensive.
thebulletin.org
Problem #2 opposition.
Problem #3 as the Ukraine invasion is highlighting, security.
I will be dead before these issues get resolved.
Why nuclear power plants cost so much—and what can be done about it
The global sustainability of nuclear power thus relies on efforts to increase its economic viability. But how? Standardized designs and downsized reactors can help. Governments can offer additional support. But that still might not be enough to keep the nuclear power industry alive in the United...
thebulletin.org
Problem #3 as the Ukraine invasion is highlighting, security.
I will be dead before these issues get resolved.
BigHornRam
Well-known member
Jobs hotter than expected......
D
Deleted member 28227
Guest
Not to mention how problematic it is to believe in the reserve reporting of authoritarian dictatorships, there is a non-zero chance that the Saudi's have 10% the reserves they claim, and or Russia.
Kinda goes to your point about why the 2MM wasn't a 1MM cut.
Personally I'd rather the US trend towards a Norway model of energy independence.
D
Deleted member 28227
Guest
TPH just initiated coverage on PR with a target price of $10... good little run for them this week. Who knows what commodity price does but I could see it going above that.
BigHornRam
Well-known member
Irrelevant
Well-known member
Yah O&G, that's the play that'll get me to retirement!
oh wait...
oh wait...
D
Deleted member 28227
Guest
Colgate had some great dividends premerger and I don't see that changing.
D
