SAJ-99
Well-known member
Still 20% below its June high. Timing is everything. Why so secret about the name? Might as well just buy the OIH. It's just a levered play on O&G.
Anybody Buying Yet? Where’s the Bottom?
- Thread starter NEWHunter
- Start date
BigHornRam
Well-known member
Good play, but my play is better. That buy on the 26th will fill my tank for over a year right now.
DIY stock picking is fun. Being a little secret is how you get paying subscriptions to my DIY Stock Pick Newsletter. (Joke)
SAJ-99
Well-known member
Check on benchmarks through Sept 30, 2022 showed some surprises, and not the good kind. The Long (10yr+) Treasury Inflation Protection (TIPS) benchmark is down almost -35% YTD.
Can you explain a bit? Benchmarks that led up to 10 year Treasury Bonds present and some form of projected Sept 2032 T Bonds? Does it show the inflation type of market, "correction" or?
Cheers SAJ. - Thanks.
SAJ-99
Well-known member
It shows that the bonds were super sensitive to any change in real yields (nominal minus inflation). The loss from the change in rates more than swamped any gain in price from inflation. In summary, they are a terrible inflation hedge when real rates are zero, or negative as they have been. When unexpected inflation hits, the Fed's text-book response is to raise rates which negatively impacts the value of all bonds, including TIPS. This little fact was ignored by investors.
Regarding a "projection" for inflation. Today, I'm showing a yield to maturity on 2032 TIPs at about 1.7%. With the standard 10yr rate at 3.83%, the implied inflation rate for the next 10yrs is 2.1% (funny how that is close to Fed target). The 5yr, 5yr Forward rate (Fed's favorite "expectations" measure, but just simple math) was about 2.2%. The flat yield curve, i.e. the bond market, is pointing to inflation coming back to 2%.
BigHornRam
Well-known member
This article on the similarities and differences of the 70's economy to today's economy might give you some insight on investment strategies into the future. It made my head hurt and more confused than ever. @wllm will probably like it though.
www.brookings.edu
Today’s global economy is eerily similar to the 1970s, but governments can still escape a stagflation episode | Brookings
Jongrim Ha, M. Ayhan Kose, and Franziska Ohnsorge examine how emerging markets can rethink economic policies to cope with rapidly tightening global financing conditions.
www.brookings.edu
AvidIndoorsman
Well-known member
- Joined
- Dec 9, 2015
- Messages
- 18,249
I'll just leave this here...This article on the similarities and differences of the 70's economy to today's economy might give you some insight on investment strategies into the future. It made my head hurt and more confused than ever. @wllm will probably like it though.
Today’s global economy is eerily similar to the 1970s, but governments can still escape a stagflation episode | Brookings
Jongrim Ha, M. Ayhan Kose, and Franziska Ohnsorge examine how emerging markets can rethink economic policies to cope with rapidly tightening global financing conditions.
BigHornRam
Well-known member
It's deja vu all over again!I'll just leave this here...
SAJ-99
Well-known member
Find me a politician today that will say “Many of these proposals will be unpopular. Some will cause you to put up with inconveniences and to make sacrifices.”
Nick87
Well-known member
Be as hard to find as someone who will vote for them
BigHornRam
Well-known member
Here's one that is saying I am going to go forward with this, even though it doesn't make a lick of sense.
Biden promises to take action on climate change despite setbacks
Biden did not specify what actions he will take on climate, but said they will create jobs, improve energy security, bolster domestic manufacturing and protect consumers from oil and gas price increases. “I will not back down,'' he promised.
www.pbs.org
noharleyyet
Well-known member
Forty acres, a doobie, and a Tesla (oops, gaffe) before November...
brocksw
Well-known member
SAJ-99
Well-known member
Not exactly the same thing. And it doesn’t make sense to you because you don’t agree with the politics. The transition needs to take place and putting it off keeps us tied to the whims of fascists around the globe.Here's one that is saying I am going to go forward with this, even though it doesn't make a lick of sense.
Biden promises to take action on climate change despite setbacks
Biden did not specify what actions he will take on climate, but said they will create jobs, improve energy security, bolster domestic manufacturing and protect consumers from oil and gas price increases. “I will not back down,'' he promised.
BigHornRam
Well-known member
Transition to communist China solar panels is not the answer.
Go forward with this, and the the stock market will continue to go down, and energy prices and energy stocks will continue to go up.
noharleyyet
Well-known member
And it makes sense to you because it does align with your politics. We are subject to whims, incompetence, and ideological preference, globally or nationally, regardless. There is no evil policy vs perfect by default policy.
SAJ-99
Well-known member
No, because I see the situation we are in and I know how we got here. Despite BHR's claims, the transition to renewables will continue regardless of China-made solar panels, or India-made solar panel, or Alabama-made solar panels. It does contribute to general economic growth (as every transition to new technology does) and it makes the US less dependent on other countries. We can scream "energy independence" all we want, but being tied to a globally produced commodity and not being the low-cost producer is a bad situation.
Wrong thread for this discussion. BHR has been presented a lot of data on other threads and just chooses to ignore it. Now, back to the markets...
BigHornRam
Well-known member
Here's a guy that had the guts to point out the pending problems with the Social Security program, and it cost him an already unlikely chance at the Whitehouse. Still Senator though.
Rand Paul Ignores Staff, Talks Social Security to Seniors
The Republican tells New Hampshire voters that the retirement age is going up.
time.com
