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Anybody Buying Yet? Where’s the Bottom?

Just a thought. In a national emergency what would be the big harm in shutting down the market all together and idle it until said emergency is lifted? Maybe it is just me but I could care less about the day traders and am more worried about the average 401K holders. They have the circuit breaker, why not have a shut off switch.
I like the idea but I think the execution is the sticking point like VG said.
 
Buying at the absolute bottom is damn near impossible. Buying today is better than buying last month. That being said, I'm guessing the market will pop a bit and then, something will trigger more downside.
 
Just a thought. In a national emergency what would be the big harm in shutting down the market all together and idle it until said emergency is lifted? Maybe it is just me but I could care less about the day traders and am more worried about the average 401K holders. They have the circuit breaker, why not have a shut off switch.
Not unprecedented. The market closed after 9-11 (and during WWI /II I think). Slightly different scenario in that some of buisness affected on 9-11 were market makers and asking them to go to work the next day would be ridiculous if they were even able to. You can’t shut the plumbing down. People need the income so DTC still would have to process dividend payments and bond markets would need to function (as was pointed out already).

You can’t shut down markets just because they go down a lot, but there are circuit breakers and most of those were hit and worked. The market is where price discovery is done and a lot of fees are paid on the ultimate value of the investments. You don’t want your financial advisor or portfolio manager calculating asset based fees based on stale, inflated values.
 
Buyers interpret move as "that must mean we are really f*cked!"
 
I'm not an economist. Is there risk in making this move too soon? Or is it better in the long run?
 
I'm not an economist. Is there risk in making this move too soon? Or is it better in the long run?
The move probably needed made but it won’t stop the Covid shutdown about to occur to the economy.
 
They fcked us with the 75 basis point emergency rate drop. That was like telling us everything was ok while they piled sandbags in front of the bunker..
It was all down hill from there.


If they lower rates more they will he seen as caving to the president's rhetoric of the fed keeping rates to high compared to our competitors. I am not the only person that is uneasy about trump setting the direction of monatery policy.
 
They fcked us with the 75 basis point emergency rate drop. That was like telling us everything was ok while they piled sandbags in front of the bunker..
It was all down hill from there.


If they lower rates more they will he seen as caving to the president's rhetoric of the fed keeping rates to high compared to our competitors. I am not the only person that is uneasy about trump setting the direction of monatery policy.
Your last sentence underscores my layman’s opinion of the situation.

Markets don’t like volatility, right? That appears to be exactly what the underlying control of the Fed is now, is volatility.
 
The panic will get worse on the market and in everyday life. This went from a shitshow to a clusterf$$k. Good grief.
 
I'm not an economist. Is there risk in making this move too soon? Or is it better in the long run?
Doesn’t really matter. It could have waited until Wednesday, but shock and awe of a Sunday move might increase impact. Either way it doesn’t matter. This is not a money problem. Fed says it has more “tools in the toolbox” but that is bullshit. They need congressional approve to buy anything other than Treasuies or agency MBS. Market is calling them on it tomorrow.
Your comment about markets not liking Vol I disagree with. Just personal opinion but Markets NEED vol. If we creep higher every day we build excesses like stretching a rubber ban. When bad stuff happens it snaps.
 
Nobody wants a recession, or if someone does they need their head examined. Yet, when you put pressure on the Fed to adjust rates for short-term feel-good political gains and they succumb to that pressure, the Feds eventually find themselves pretty much relegated to the sidelines. They have very little ammo left. Kind of like being in a gunfight and you are out of bullets.

The markets know it. Most who follow monetary policy know it. And pretty soon, anyone who didn't see it coming with the cuts last fall, will know it. Unfortunate for so many who are highly leveraged or living in a tight financial picture.

Many of us have seen how this story goes a time or two in our lives. I think I'll buckle up for a few rough years ahead.
 
Don’t really think it matters at all what the Feds did in short run. Bottom line is that there will be some dark days ahead, maybe very dark, and the market knows it. Therefore, it was going to tank tomorrow regardless. The reality of it all is sinking in far and wide. That said, there will be a chit ton of liquidity out there once this is all said and done and we will rebound handily in the long run. We just have to win the war first and deal with some pain along the way.
 

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