Yeti GOBOX Collection

The financial impacts of 2020 events?

I do it in this life. save the lecture
should have said forced load out
Chill. It wasn't a lecture. What is forced load out?
Im asking what you think it is going to stop? The drilling with no place to put it? Speculation? Do oil ETFs like USO go under. I don't have the answer and other perspectives are always useful. It takes me time to gather information you may already have.
 
i liked this article, the high level description of oil trading helped my understanding a bit more

not an overly optimistic article either, which i feel is a warranted opinion

"There was worldwide shock last week at the freakish reading of a price of MINUS-$40 for a barrel of US oil. This was eye-catching but slightly misleading .... However, the fundamental issues behind that technical, weird and historic price anomaly are very much real "

 
Another 4.4 million filed for unemployment, 26 million in 5 weeks. That’s crazy. Hopefully we can regain most of those quickly once things open back up.
 
Glockstar

In my unofficial, arm chair, monday morning quarterback opinion---which it and nickel will buy you absolutely, nothing

It will. I believe it will come back quickly and strongly and possibly more importantly, I am hoping and praying that it does.

Please--no political argument here, just one old woman opinion. But IMHO, the young female House of Representative member from New York is wrong to ask workers to NOT go back to work when things open back up. as a way of protesting.

On a different note. Some have ask why Gold and Oil have jumped up. Again IMHO, the warning to Iran is enough to raise those two. In days past the unemployment numbers would have raised gold way past what it did.

But, the "barometers" of yesteryear do not seem to be acting or reacting a they have into past .
 
Another 4.4 million filed for unemployment, 26 million in 5 weeks. That’s crazy. Hopefully we can regain most of those quickly once things open back up.
I think the skepticism of a V-shaped recovery (at least for the economy) is rising. The most shocking stat I saw was now the total job losses over the last 5 weeks equalled the total jobs gained since the last crisis. It seems a lot of those jobs were hourly workers and low-skilled positions. There are quite a few stories about small businesses applying for and receiving PPP loans and the employees being mad because they would have made more in unemployment. I guess those people didn't have the most fulfilling positions in terms of job satisfaction. We see the problems of a government response that is not well thought out and unintended consequences. PPP had hedge funds, venture capital startups, and even public corporations applying and receiving ten's of millions $. Expecting people to do what is morally right is apparently a fantasy. Now we have to wonder how do we get people back to work? Do wages have to increase? Do people even go back to eating at bars and restaurants? What does a "new normal" look like?
 
Now we have to wonder how do we get people back to work? Do wages have to increase? Do people even go back to eating at bars and restaurants? What does a "new normal" look like?

it's troubling

when do they go back work? how many will actually have jobs when it's time to go back to work to? how much tepidity will exist in the "new world' consumer and for how long? if everyone goes back to work it doesn't many everybody will still be buying what they were selling before. nobody knows those answers yet, which why it's so troubling.

personally i'm not too optimistic on those points

i find it weirdly troubling how many people think we're going back to normal very quickly. i have young millenial friends my age talking about buying houses this spring, actually bidding on houses, i nearly shat my pants when they told me this.

with so much uncertainty, and the reality is that we could very well be on the eve of a massive recession, why gamble? whatever happened to preparing for the worst? damn millenials
 
it's troubling when do they go back work?

i have young millenial friends my age talking about buying houses this spring, actually bidding on houses,
They have little to lose compared to baby boomers. My guess is they will be shocked at how hard it will be to get a loan just like after 2008.. And they will go back to work when the teet goes dry. The sooner the better or socialism will become more appealing to yet even more people.
 
saj99, Togiegoat, schmalts

Can not argue or dispute anything you have posted. The problem is we were in a very good economy and stock market, with very low unemployment numbers and to be able to get back to those numbers soon will be difficult. A V shaped bounce back would IMHO be very very very hard to accomplish. It was the "high water rises all boats" economy that we were in------good stock market and low unemployment ------- All this brought jobs to people that we dont always think about.

i.e.--my job and/or business is going well I can quit mowing the lawn and hire someone to do it for me---but many will go back to mowing their yards and that fellow you hired is out of work. Vacation's will be scaled back which affects so many people---airlines, rental cars, taxi's, hotels, travel agencies Disneyland, Las Vegas, Cruise Lines, etc. Even cities, counties and state offices had been hiring and now they will very possibly need to lay off those recently hired. For sure many connected to oil production will be out of work for awhile,

All of the above references and many many many more---- Instead of hiring that extra person that they hired last year, they will let him/her AND another person or two go-----until their business is back to where it was before all this happen

BUT---I am realistic but not a negative person and I do believe ithe economy will be back, sooner than later, I pray it will be back sooner than later, but I do not believe it will be a V shape recovery. A U shape is more likely,

This is not a political statement but something that I believe to be true. With the election only 6 months away, Trump will pull out all stops to get it back to where it was. Also, right wrong or indifferent Democrats will not want that to happen. Remember their are two Surpeme Court Justices who are old and in poor health . The next president will almost certainly replace them. Also, we have no idea whether or not the CV19 will come back with a vengeance after we reopen the country

What happens between now and Nov will be interesting, and it will not all be about the economy and getting it back to where it was

But please remember my opinion and a nickel will buy you absolutely nothing.

But America will survive and prosper !
 
But please remember my opinion and a nickel will buy you absolutely nothing.

But America will survive and prosper !
Lots of good points. I certainly agree with the last statement. You said the economy was very good, employment was low and the stock market was high. All true, but each point has a counterpoint that can't be dismissed. The economy was good, but generally on trend since 2009 - trend being 2% real GDP growth. Lackluster from a historical perspective, but generally pretty good. Employment was as historic lows, but labor force participation remained terribly low, and many of the new jobs were unskilled and low paying. This highlights the continuing problem of a skills gap in the US employment picture. The stock market was very high, but it was also very expensive at a p/e almost 20x forward earnings. Sure, not "tech bubble" craziness from 2000, but still expensive. Low interest rates became a justification for that, and we are going to get a lot more of that going forward. The worry is that while the Fed tells us we are not Japan and not going down that road, we are starting to look a lot like Japan. No one knows for sure the "why" on any of it.

I hope you are wrong on the politics aspect, because it would be depressing that we can't unify in times of crisis. In general, I think presidents have very little influence on the economy either way, but voters end up giving them credit or the blame for the results. The way the US is set up, Congress and the President have to agree to get anything done. That will be an interesting dynamic. Just my $0.02 and it isn't worth the nickel your's was. If people have confidence in their personal job outlook, we might rebound fairly fast. However, these types of events have historically raised caution, both for workers and businesses. Your point about businesses realizing they could make due with less might be where we end up.
 
A V shaped or U shaped recovery will probably be different in terms of stock market VS economy. The market could be a V and the economy may be a wide U for sure. It is so shameful the stock market has little to do with the economy anymore. The fact the DOW is at near 24K is proof.
 
A V shaped or U shaped recovery will probably be different in terms of stock market VS economy. The market could be a V and the economy may be a wide U for sure. It is so shameful the stock market has little to do with the economy anymore. The fact the DOW is at near 24K is proof.
One thing you learn quickly in BigHornRam’s school is the market doesn’t care what anyone thinks. You should make all investment decisions based on the market you have, not the market you want or think should be. For a decade I heard people complain about the market from 2008 and how much of a scam or pyramid scheme it is. Now they have something else to complain about. All I know is the market won’t listen or care. Simple and elegant in many ways.
 
One thing you learn quickly in BigHornRam’s school is the market doesn’t care what anyone thinks. You should make all investment decisions based on the market you have, not the market you want or think should be. For a decade I heard people complain about the market from 2008 and how much of a scam or pyramid scheme it is. Now they have something else to complain about. All I know is the market won’t listen or care. Simple and elegant in many ways.
I am not disagreeing with you, but I will be shocked if there isn't a significant second dip - there are just so many "hidden" problems working through the "supply chain" at the moment. And people forget how many businesses don't make a dime until 90+% utilization - I have a hard time believing demand for entertainment, restaurants, retail and travel rebound that much in 12 months and then all the trickle down effects of unemployment, commercial real estate drop, loss of consumer confidence. I think there will be a significant sorting out of our economy in the next 12-18 months and can't imagine the market just powers through all that. But who knows, I have been wrong before.

In the end, I am bullish on America over time, just concerned about economic realities of the near term.
 
If you are a CPA and your daily life involves the small business carnage I am seeing, you just cannot bring yourself to jump into the market right now. I hope I am wrong and I hope all the risk takers are rewarded greatly. My skepticism and conservatism, jaded by a life of small business consulting, does not let me move from cash right now. I'll probably kick myself, but if Wall Street earnings "adjustments" in May are even a fraction of the hammer that has dropped on Main Street, sanity would dictate a further decline. But, maybe Wall Street and Main Street are different worlds. Or, maybe sanity is not part of the equation.

My heart aches for some of these small businesses, none of which will recover to where they were, no matter the efforts DC folks want to say they are making. As sad of a business story as I've seen in 33 years as a CPA.
 
I am not disagreeing with you, but I will be shocked if there isn't a significant second dip - there are just so many "hidden" problems working through the "supply chain" at the moment. And people forget how many businesses don't make a dime until 90+% utilization - I have a hard time believing demand for entertainment, restaurants, retail and travel rebound that much in 12 months and then all the trickle down effects of unemployment, commercial real estate drop, loss of consumer confidence. I think there will be a significant sorting out of our economy in the next 12-18 months and can't imagine the market just powers through all that. But who knows, I have been wrong before.

In the end, I am bullish on America over time, just concerned about economic realities of the near term.
We are completely on the same page. Markets might "double-dip" but S&P lows are around 2200 which is over 20% decline from here. Maybe we shouldn't be here at 2800? Not for me to decide. What I say is the concept of retesting bottoms is from long-term analysis. We didn't retest the lows in 2009, we didn't retest the lows in 2018. Maybe the Robinhoods of the world have changed the market dynamics or investor views? Not sure. All I know is, right now, I am looking at a market trading between 2850 and 2700, and I will trade that range until something changes. Everything seems to be focused on virus news, so it might take a new upturn in virus cases to retest the 2200 level. Right now, investors are looking beyond all of 2020. But completely agree with all that the economy is a complete mess and many companies will not survive this, even as many states start to partially reopen. The optimist in me says recessions are a natural part of the process and every company that goes out of business will be replaced by a new company with an energetic founder with a new idea.
 
Thank s fellows for the calm, intellectual, and intelligent conversation. I enjoy your posts and learn from them. One is never to old to learn something new. Thank you gentlemen

Big Fin, Main Street is what I was referring to in my post above. Sometimes it takes years of simply "buying yourself a place of employment" by owning your own business., before you are able hire employees. These are the business's I worry about the most. Plus as things, in general got better, these folks were "hiring". The people they hired will not immediately come back I fear. I hope and pray I am wrong however.

However, having said that, the airlines, cruise lines, and other BIG business may have a hard time staying in business if the recovery is to long in coming and/or we have a second dip sooner, not later.

Vikingsguy, I also think, we will have a second dip---I hope not--but --I have to agree with you

saj-99 I also hope I am wrong in reference to politics
 
PEAX Trekking Poles

Latest posts

Forum statistics

Threads
110,805
Messages
1,935,062
Members
34,883
Latest member
clamwc
Back
Top