Poll: How many OIL tags have you Drawn in the Last 20 years of Applying

Poll: How many OIL tags have you Drawn in the Last 10 years of Applying

  • 0

    Votes: 15 34.1%
  • 1

    Votes: 11 25.0%
  • 2

    Votes: 9 20.5%
  • 3

    Votes: 3 6.8%
  • 4

    Votes: 6 13.6%

  • Total voters
    44

PoleX

Well-known member
Joined
Mar 1, 2025
Messages
312
The questionable math equations on the Montana MSG thread got me thinking, I'd be interested in knowing some real numbers. As Buzz likes to say, excel sheets lie...

POLL: How many OIL tags have you drawn in the last 10 years of applying.

Really simple rules:

1. I'd be nice if you have applied for at least 3 difficult tags/year for at least 8 of the last 10 years to participate, raffle tags count too. 2015ish-This year to keep it relevant, you can move the range a couple years but preferably a 10 year stretch post 2000.
2. Successful on a 2% or less draw odds for the tag (any species). Basically any tag you had no business drawing. If you don't know how to calculate this properly just make an educated guess.
3. Post up a picture of the animal, year you drew if you'd like.


Good luck in the draws, still some time left to pull a tag!
 
Been applying for 15 years. OIL tags in WA are 0.1% or 0.01%. I know people who've drawn multiple while I'm still rocking a goose egg.
 
I drew MT mountain goat in 2010 and MT moose in 2026. My wife drew bighorn sheep in 2016 as well, so we have been very fortunate.
 
I bet if you were to look odds have gotten a lot worse in that short time frame since then.
My anecdotal observation is about a tag every 10-15 years...I have 4 good buddies I hunt with. We've pulled maybe 6 tags across 4 guys over 10 years of applying every year across a few states for a lot of tough tags.
 
Past 10 years:

1. Every year NM Oryx, less than 2% odds. Drew 1, 1 for 10
2. Every year NM Bighorn, 0 for 10
3. Every year NM OIL Ibex, 0 for 10
4. 3 years for McGregor Barbary, drew 1 (.6% odds), 1 for 3
5. 4 years of NM Goulds, 0 for 4
5. AZ Bighorn for 8 years, 0 for 8
6. AZ Gould's for 8 years, 0 for 8
7. AZ Rifle Rut Elk for 8 years, 0 for 8
8. AZ Rifle Pronghorn for 8 years, 0 for 8
6. CO Desert Bighorn 3 years, 0 for 3
7. I'll say probably 6 to 10 raffles, 0 there

So overall in the last 10 years, 2 tags with less than 2% odds out of ~80 apps. Which crazy enough, works out to about 2% success odds. lol
 
Last edited:
Drawn 4 since 2015 (last 10 years).

Wyoming moose in 2015 drew with preference points:

DSC00872.JPG


Wyoming sheep 2019 drew with preference points:

IMG_3277%20_2_.JPG


Wyoming moose, 2021 random tag:

IMG_4507.JPG


Montana sheep 2024, one less than max points:

IMG_2303.jpg


Prior to that:

Montana moose in 1995.
Montana mountain goat 1998.
AK Muskox, can't remember what year, but last year they gave trophy tags out of Shishmaref
Arizona desert sheep in 2012
NM Oryx can't remember but 2010ish?

I don't count any elk, deer, or pronghorn tags.
 
Last edited:
Drawn 4 since 2015 (last 10 years).

Wyoming moose in 2015 drew with preference points:

DSC00872.JPG


Wyoming sheep 2019 drew with preference points:

IMG_3277%20_2_.JPG


Wyoming moose, 2021 random tag:

IMG_4507.JPG


Montana sheep 2024, one less than max points:

IMG_2303.jpg

Don't count if you the draw odds were more than 2%. Preference draws are 100%. LOL
 
Mt 652 buck tag will be oil I’ll never apply for that again got it around 2018 before they added the tags I think around 4%

Utah deer 2020 around 4%

New Mexico 2022 audad around 3%

Idaho LE last year around 5%

As far as the big 3 game I’ll apply for moose in 4 states this year with less that a percent of drawing. I’d wager I have a about a 90% chance of killing one in the 5th state I’ll just buy the license in
 
Mt 652 buck tag will be oil I’ll never apply for that again got it around 2018 before they added the tags I think around 4%

Utah deer 2020 around 4%

New Mexico 2022 audad around 3%

Idaho LE last year around 5%

As far as the big 3 game I’ll apply for moose in 4 states this year with less that a percent of drawing. I’d wager I have a about a 90% chance of killing one in the 5th state I’ll just buy the license in
I wasn’t the only one who got suckered into applying for 652. 😂. Cool place to hunt but a major letdown for quality. Too many tags. I also drew in 2018.
 
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