Anybody Buying Yet? Where’s the Bottom?

[Sytes]

A buddy's been working WTI and made more than 10x's my base hobby account the 5th.

Ever notice how the rainbow moves as you do? The parable of the stock market's pot of gold.

 

[Flatrock]

@BigHornRam how low is Tesla gonna go? Below $500? 0?

 

[BigHornRam]

@BigHornRam how low is Tesla gonna go? Below $500? 0?

No idea. I'm not interested at any price. Huge new batch of young gamblers with $1400 checks and it could go back up.

 

[westbranch]

No idea. I'm not interested at any price. Huge new batch of young gamblers with $1400 checks and it could go back up.

I was just thinking this morning I should throw a few $100 at a couple different meme stocks to make some beer money. But I am sure I would hold a bit too long and not make anything.

 

[BigHornRam]

I was just thinking this morning I should throw a few $100 at a couple different meme stocks to make some beer money. But I am sure I would hold a bit too long and not make anything.

Sounds like a good plan.......

Young retail investors plan to spend almost half of their stimulus checks on stocks, Deutsche survey claims

An online survey of 430 investors who use online broker platforms found that half of respondents between 25 and 34 years old plan to spend 50% of their stimulus payments on stocks.

www.cnbc.com

 

[Sytes]

Its playing with the casino's $$$.

 

[Sytes]

Not sure if others have those feelers out there though i received an alert of a reddit rush of banter this morning w/ wallstreetbets for... you guessed it, GME this morning and... well up 41% for the day.

Everyone knows how this show begins... I'd sure like to know how it plays out before... haha!

 

[Flatrock]

No idea. I'm not interested at any price. Huge new batch of young gamblers with $1400 checks and it could go back up.

Haha. Just might. Could join Cathie Wood and ride the train!

 

[Sytes]

I've not played GME since a couple(?) years or so...

Blah. Saw this today... amazing! Wonder when he starts cashing in some profit...

Any good Strangle thoughts?

 

[schmalts]

@BigHornRam how low is Tesla gonna go? Below $500? 0?

THE P/E is still a joke.........

 

[Flatrock]

THE P/E is still a joke.........

Not saying you're wrong but Amazon's P/E has been a joke for about the last 3,000 points.

It's #7 in the S&P 500 so all of us most likely own it one way or another.

 

[schmalts]

Not saying you're wrong but Amazon's P/E has been a joke for about the last 3,000 points.

It's #7 in the S&P 500 so all of us most likely own it one way or another.

Amazon PE is 73
TESLA even after the price drop is 1076

 

[SAJ-99]

I've not played GME since a couple(?) years or so...

Blah. Saw this today... amazing! Wonder when he starts cashing in some profit...

Any good Strangle thoughts?

View attachment 176703

I assume it's a short strangle. If you do, you got a bigger set of stones than me. Someone is going to be a loser in this, and the only way to make sure it isn't me is to stay a LOOONG way away from it.

 

[Flatrock]

Amazon PE is 73
TESLA even after the price drop is 1076

You're missing my point. A P/E ratio is looking in the past. The market has never cared about the past and never will. It is always looking to the future and will ALWAYS place a premium on growth. And not necessarily earnings growth but lots of times revenue growth. Eventually, that revenue growth is usually turned into earnings growth.

From 2010 to 2015, Amazon averaged about $1 a year in EPS and yet its stock went from the low 100s to the high 600s. Its P/E was 500+ at that point. Since then, earnings have gone from roughly $1 to an analyst consensus $60+ in 2022 and the P/E ratio has of course come down tremendously. Still an expensive stock purely by an EPS viewpoint but not if they continue to grow. Tesla is forecast to earn $5+ in 2022 and might be in a similar place now as Amazon was in 2015.

Momentum and loyalty have clearly been a part Tesla and I'm not completely justifying its valuation but I think investors are buying it today for the company that it could be in 2025 and beyond. Maybe that pans out. Maybe it doesn't. It is no doubt priced to perfection right now and could easily be cut in half. And the market of late has clearly shifted from buying growth to buying value so maybe that will hurt the Amazons and Teslas of the world. To judge a stock purely on P/E though is usually too narrow of a view.

 

[Sytes]

That would be the focus. This is a $5-10 per share (and that's the polite side) brick & mortar whose been disjointed from the digital world.
I would be inclined to run a single put series though the reddit crew has this pegged as their Godship to the next planet and who knows where they might land.
A safety net strangle. I sure don't see it sitting idle for a year. It's going to move.

The price for such is so far out of my interest it's not really practical to weather.

Was curious if others had thoughts on how to capitalize on GME.

 

[Sytes]

I'll add this.
My wife and I are fiscally conservative. We have our pensions and 401/TSP's, along with other retirement based income plans.
I have my hobby stock market tinker $. My decisions... my follies or "King Me", checkers win days.
And... we (decisions are made together) have our perspectives account. Consider it a net sweeping for potential boomers.

SENS is an example of one of our perspectives. We have a simple 1000 shares and it will sit there until?

I also play SENS in my hobby account - day/ swing. making pretty good "lunch" money buying low / selling high.
Such as the earnings bought @ avg. 2.28(?) 1.4k shares and today sold @ 3.36 and bought @ 3.03 1k shares.. Like I said... lunch $.

So what do I look for? Best chance something is going one way or another.
GME whether one likes the sweetheart story or despises it - I care not. Other than it's an interesting story.

I care that it's highly likely to move in a large manner and when it does, I believe we'll see these kids crying and hopping off the sinking ship like rats.
This is going to be a mover!
That equates to $$$.

How best to play it. W/O shorting the stock as, for me... it's not an available option. We (day/swing and beyond) search for such... this is NOT a coin flip of equal 50/50 chance. Least IMO and it appears yours as well.

So... floating ideas. How best to play it?

 

[SAJ-99]

I'll add this.
My wife and I are fiscally conservative. We have our pensions and 401/TSP's, along with other retirement based income plans.
I have my hobby stock market tinker $. My decisions... my follies or "King Me", checkers win days.
And... we (decisions are made together) have our perspectives account. Consider it a net sweeping for potential boomers.

SENS is an example of one of our perspectives. We have a simple 1000 shares and it will sit there until?

I also play SENS in my hobby account - day/ swing. making pretty good "lunch" money buying low / selling high.
Such as the earnings bought @ avg. 2.28(?) 1.4k shares and today sold @ 3.36 and bought @ 3.03 1k shares.. Like I said... lunch $.

So what do I look for? Best chance something is going one way or another.
GME whether one likes the sweetheart story or despises it - I care not. Other than it's an interesting story.

I care that it's highly likely to move in a large manner and when it does, I believe we'll see these kids crying and hopping off the sinking ship like rats.
This is going to be a mover!
That equates to $$$.

How best to play it. W/O shorting the stock as, for me... it's not an available option. We (day/swing and beyond) search for such... this is NOT a coin flip of equal 50/50 chance. Least IMO and it appears yours as well.

So... floating ideas. How best to play it?

Put spread to minimize the cost of the implied vol. Tight stops. I suspect the latest run is over, but what do I know? It isn't a stock anymore. It is a dream.

 

[SAJ-99]

You're missing my point. A P/E ratio is looking in the past. The market has never cared about the past and never will. It is always looking to the future and will ALWAYS place a premium on growth. And not necessarily earnings growth but lots of times revenue growth. Eventually, that revenue growth is usually turned into earnings growth.

From 2010 to 2015, Amazon averaged about $1 a year in EPS and yet its stock went from the low 100s to the high 600s. Its P/E was 500+ at that point. Since then, earnings have gone from roughly $1 to an analyst consensus $60+ in 2022 and the P/E ratio has of course come down tremendously. Still an expensive stock purely by an EPS viewpoint but not if they continue to grow. Tesla is forecast to earn $5+ in 2022 and might be in a similar place now as Amazon was in 2015.

Momentum and loyalty have clearly been a part Tesla and I'm not completely justifying its valuation but I think investors are buying it today for the company that it could be in 2025 and beyond. Maybe that pans out. Maybe it doesn't. It is no doubt priced to perfection right now and could easily be cut in half. And the market of late has clearly shifted from buying growth to buying value so maybe that will hurt the Amazons and Teslas of the world. To judge a stock purely on P/E though is usually too narrow of a view.

Good point, but you ignore PE at your own risk and companies don't grow to the sky. AMZN shows PE growth of 12% from 2021 to 2022. Not sure that it justifies such a high valuation for growth in that range. But as long as the investors want to place a premium on it, as they have for two decades, I guess it will go up. If these companies hit a bump, the wheels can come off in a hurry (pun intended ).

 

[Irrelevant]

If these companies hit a bump, the wheels can come off in a hurry (pun intended ).

Tesla sure. Amazon... hmm I mean those wheels are pretty damn was intrenched... I mean attached.

 

[SAJ-99]

Tesla sure. Amazon... hmm I mean those wheels are pretty damn was intrenched... I mean attached.

Maybe. My main issue is that every time the subject of valuation comes up, someone says “what about Amazon”. Yeah it’s still around and still expensive. Do you want me to list 50 other companies that traded at similar valuations are are no longer alive? cherry picking is dangerous.

Funny thing with Amazon, they still sell most of retail stuff at a loss. AWS is what makes the profit. Profit breeds competition and they have a lot of it. Need to find another line of business or start increasing that Prime fee.