Anybody Buying Yet? Where’s the Bottom?

[jryoung]

@SAJ-99 What are your current thoughts on the potential market impacts of the pending IPOs for Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI? Who is most likely to be impacted by the potential "Liquidity Drain" and potential fast tracking into the S&P?

 

[SAJ-99]

@SAJ-99 What are your current thoughts on the potential market impacts of the pending IPOs for Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI? Who is most likely to be impacted by the potential "Liquidity Drain" and potential fast tracking into the S&P?

Goog question. All a guess at this point. They are certainly popular names and there is a ton of institutional money that will be looking to get in if they don't hold any in the private market already. Valuation will matter. SpaceX/Xai looks like it will be first - June-ish. The main problem I see is that during this latest rebound volume has been soft. Tech has led the way, as it has in almost every V shaped recovery for the least 20 years, but I think the AI narrative is moving to the phase where people want to start seeing some cash flow. I like many others use Claude, but if I have to pay $25/mo I will just move to Gemini. I can't see where Anthropic is worth $700-900B at IPO, and that is the best AI model out there. But if they float a small enough %, the retail traders may push it up?

 

[Bonasababy]

Not something Id ever invest in so take this fir what its worth, but the primer on all of them I heard a talk on recently didnt do much to lower my concern over investing when risk and uncertainty of who rises above is so high. I did like what I heard about the morality and principles of Anthropic though...Trump/Hegseth are not fans but if..as I expect...public backlash continues to grow I like their chances better. Kind of analogous to the ESG popularity...caring about more than share price can be good for business.

Still would more inclined to search out funds or ETFs which reduce the risk somewhat.

 

[jryoung]

Goog question. All a guess at this point. They are certainly popular names and there is a ton of institutional money that will be looking to get in if they don't hold any in the private market already. Valuation will matter. SpaceX/Xai looks like it will be first - June-ish. The main problem I see is that during this latest rebound volume has been soft. Tech has led the way, as it has in almost every V shaped recovery for the least 20 years, but I think the AI narrative is moving to the phase where people want to start seeing some cash flow. I like many others use Claude, but if I have to pay $25/mo I will just move to Gemini. I can't see where Anthropic is worth $700-900B at IPO, and that is the best AI model out there. But if they float a small enough %, the retail traders may push it up?

I clicked on a article a couple weeks ago so the discussion of what it does the to the boarder market is all in my feed right now. I keep wondering if there might be a perfect storm for markets if gas prices continue to rise (or stay steady) and tepid interest in the IPOs. The cash flow narrative is true for all things AI, the spends not just from the hyperscalers are bonkers and at some point someone is going to start to tap the break, or maybe not....Meta's Q1 echoed this pretty significantly.