Anybody Buying Yet? Where’s the Bottom?

[ignorethefringes]

Will be interesting to see if today was the start of a legitimate correction or just a minor blip. A 5-10% pullback and a few months of consolidation would be good for the market.

Elections have been proven to be very meaningless for the market in the past but I do think the Georgia elections will have a little more importance than normal.

I may be wrong, but I think it comes down to the tax implications. Depending on how the GA runoff goes determines the likelihood of raised taxes on business and potentially "missed" profit benchmarks in coming years. I know even as a small business owner I saw benefit from the tax cut and I'm watching it closely to see what impacts maybe likely for our small business.

 

[Addicting]

The run off isn’t looking good for the Republican Party. I’m wondering if tomorrow is the day we finally see a correction in the market.

 

[ignorethefringes]

The run off isn’t looking good for the Republican Party. I’m wondering if tomorrow is the day we finally see a correction in the market.

Seems like every time I refresh the page it switches around.

 

[Addicting]

Seems like every time I refresh the page it switches around.

I’ve been checking it on and off and the D were always ahead. Now it looks like R has a slim lead.

I’m hoping R can pull it off but also want the correction that will likely happen if the Dems take it.

I vaguely remember something about having my cake and eating it to....

 

[Flatrock]

I may be wrong, but I think it comes down to the tax implications. Depending on how the GA runoff goes determines the likelihood of raised taxes on business and potentially "missed" profit benchmarks in coming years. I know even as a small business owner I saw benefit from the tax cut and I'm watching it closely to see what impacts maybe likely for our small business.

Yep that's the general consensus. Might not have an answer on who the winners are for a day or three and regardless of who wins, it is extremely hard to say how the market will react. There are pluses and minuses to both outcomes.

 

[schmalts]

Right now the margin is too thin for the GOP to win this. The biggest cities in the state are always last to report and will always go to the "free stuff".

 

[jryoung]

I may be wrong, but I think it comes down to the tax implications. Depending on how the GA runoff goes determines the likelihood of raised taxes on business and potentially "missed" profit benchmarks in coming years. I know even as a small business owner I saw benefit from the tax cut and I'm watching it closely to see what impacts maybe likely for our small business.

From a market perspective and my years of consulting and auditing several publicly traded companies tax changes never hand an effect. It really hit home when one of my clients had a $50M increase to cash flow as a result of change in tax outcome, the market result on earnings.....nothing. Another of my clients had a global tax rate (cash) of 2.5%, the market didn't appreciate the brilliance of their corporate structure. While there is much speculation in the market, there is a lot of it driven by fundamentals. Gross margin, and cash flow from their business fundamentals.

 

[grizzly_]

Right now the margin is too thin for the GOP to win this. The biggest cities in the state are always last to report and will always go to the "free stuff".

I think maybe you haven't been following what all four candidates (and the other two men campaigning in the state on their behalf) were offering to voters...

 

[ignorethefringes]

From a market perspective and my years of consulting and auditing several publicly traded companies tax changes never hand an effect. It really hit home when one of my clients had a $50M increase to cash flow as a result of change in tax outcome, the market result on earnings.....nothing. Another of my clients had a global tax rate (cash) of 2.5%, the market didn't appreciate the brilliance of their corporate structure. While there is much speculation in the market, there is a lot of it driven by fundamentals. Gross margin, and cash flow from their business fundamentals.

My "like" wasn't sufficient to say how much I appreciate your response. Thank you for taking time to explain. I have much to learn for sure.

 

[ignorethefringes]

Well, I screwed the pouch on that one. I never checked when initial investors could finally sell. Damn if that doesn't hurt like hell. I do think it's a solid long term play... just a much longer term than I was initially hoping for.

Well, based on your comment I looked into it, and bought some a couple days ago. I'm not hating that decision lol. I only wish I would have bought more. Currently up over 29%*

*subject to change throughout the day lol

 

[Irrelevant]

Well, based on your comment I looked into it, and bought some a couple days ago. I'm not hating that decision lol. I only wish I would have bought more. Currently up over 29%*

*subject to change throughout the day lol

I bought more as well, enough to bring my avg down to where I might make money again soon.

 

[SAJ-99]

Interesting day. First thing anyone should do is check their biases at the door. Alt energy and traditional energy both higher. Banks higher as rates rise. Small caps up big. Looks like a rotation right not from growth to value. Tech is slightly negative, probably on increased regulation - about the only think both parties can agree on is they hate FaceBook. Tax changes should be viewed as irrelevant right now. Anything major can't happen with the economy in its current condition.

The negatives are structural. There isn't much positive news that can drive the market higher. We checked off vaccines, elections, Santa Claus rally done, etc. The January effect still has some legs, and small caps are proving that today, but hard to think of anything that drive valuation multiples higher and the economy is still struggling to gain momentum. If we see $2000 check by the end of Jan, that would certainly provide some fuel, but R's suddenly found their fiscal austerity and some D's are questioning the amount as well.

Personally, I am getting more cautious into this last push higher. Still heavily long stocks but am moving toward the door so I can escape quickly when someone yells "FIRE".

Anyone else have thoughts?

 

[noharleyyet]

‘Moved toward the door’ yesterday.

 

[schmalts]

Alt energy and traditional energy both higher. Banks higher as rates rise. Small caps up big. Looks like a rotation right not from growth to value.

Anyone else have thoughts?

My thoughts is I liked the last 2 days...... between my holding in RDS BP OKE BAC and SUN I was smiling when I logged into my account today.`Now to decide when and what to do is my problem. I can't figure out why T and VZ are such duds....

 

[Irrelevant]

I'm one more day (like yesterday and today) away from making money on QS. At which point I will divest of that wide ride and would love to see a hard contraction.

I think you will still see some of the big tech (maybe not facebook) grow in 2021. They simply got too much of a market advantage in 2020 (looking hard at you Amazon). Plus, tech is simply the future, and the market still feels like it cares more about the future than the present.

 

[Irrelevant]

Well, based on your comment I looked into it, and bought some a couple days ago. I'm not hating that decision lol. I only wish I would have bought more. Currently up over 29%*

*subject to change throughout the day lol

Just logged in again... you're welcome.

Helluva couple days for you. feels like me two weeks ago. Take @SAJ-99 advice..."you'll never go broke taking a profit"

 

[ignorethefringes]

Just logged in again... you're welcome.

Helluva couple days for you. feels like me two weeks ago. Take @SAJ-99 advice..."you'll never go broke taking a profit"

Due to uncertainty related to the election (which I was clearly wrong on. Learning lessons today, agree with @SAJ-99 on checking biases) I already have trailing stop loss orders on everything. If things turn and start dumping I'll take a hit, but it will sell before it gets (too) ugly.

All of my positions are currently up, with an average of +/- 5% for the whole portfolio. It's a good day so far.

And yes, thank you! lol

 

[SAJ-99]

My thoughts is I liked the last 2 days...... between my holding in RDS BP OKE BAC and SUN I was smiling when I logged into my account today.`Now to decide when and what to do is my problem. I can't figure out why T and VZ are such duds....

Have VZ as well. I think it is used as a bond proxy for its div yield. I say that because Preferred stocks (PFF) are down too. VZ Still getting a good pop today.

 

[Addicting]

Seems storming the capital doesn’t even effect the S&P 500. I am so ready for this craziness to stop.

 

[TOGIE]

Seems storming the capital doesn’t even effect the S&P 500.

you sure about that?