NEW SITKA Ambient 75

Anybody Buying Yet? Where’s the Bottom?

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Still closed higher than it started. Maybe tomorrow, but not today.

well, i mean you can choose any slice of time over any period of its history and find it sliding or gaining, but it definitely slid this afternoon, weirdly as news of the riots started breaking
 
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damnit! I said one more day of 20% profits and I was going to finally get back to the green on that damn QS... then ole Orange Peel himself as to go and incite a riot!
 
Still too much on my plate to get in.

Been sitting with my MRNA from early stage of Covid and the past few months holding my MSFT with the remainder of my hobby $.
MSFT has been a Royal B!tch! Day / swing trading had me frequently wonder... "had I just kept it for a few months..."

So figure, I'll toss my leftover coin into MSFT.
Bought @ 203(?)
Where's it @ today? 212...

WTF? Haha!

Guess it could be less than... so cheer?... :D
 
Still too much on my plate to get in.

Been sitting with my MRNA from early stage of Covid and the past few months holding my MSFT with the remainder of my hobby $.
MSFT has been a Royal B!tch! Day / swing trading had me frequently wonder... "had I just kept it for a few months..."

So figure, I'll toss my leftover coin into MSFT.
Bought @ 203(?)
Where's it @ today? 212...

WTF? Haha!

Guess it could be less than... so cheer?... :D
Heck a few weeks ago I was up 100% in Moderna. I looked yesterday and only 50%. Read an article that Moderna in the long run has a big upside due to the unique carrier that they use in the vaccines.
 
Personally, I am getting more cautious into this last push higher. Still heavily long stocks but am moving toward the door so I can escape quickly when someone yells "FIRE".

Anyone else have thoughts?

I totally hear ya but I'm sticking with it. If it goes up, great. If it goes down, great as well. Can buy some more at lower prices.

When someone does yell FIRE, how do you know it's for real? And how do you know when to get back in? (I say both are incredibly difficult. More so on the first.) When the Dow was down 500+ on Monday, it sure looked like it could be the beginning of a pullback. 2 days later it's back at all-time highs.
 
Heck a few weeks ago I was up 100% in Moderna. I looked yesterday and only 50%. Read an article that Moderna in the long run has a big upside due to the unique carrier that they use in the vaccines.
I know very little about Moderna but post-Covid, what does it have going for it? Will they use those unique carriers in future vaccines for different illnesses?
 
I totally hear ya but I'm sticking with it. If it goes up, great. If it goes down, great as well. Can buy some more at lower prices.

When someone does yell FIRE, how do you know it's for real? And how do you know when to get back in? (I say both are incredibly difficult. More so on the first.) When the Dow was down 500+ on Monday, it sure looked like it could be the beginning of a pullback. 2 days later it's back at all-time highs.
Good question. Don't really have an answer or I would be shopping for a ranch filled with elk and deer right now. No way to know for sure. Monday was interesting. My explanation- people held off selling in 2020 for tax reasons and then once 2021 hit they decided to step aside for fear of a capital gains increase. Jan 5 elections come and go and then Market starts pricing in more fiscal/monetary stimulus, knowing that the last checks went straight into the market. There are also dealer flows (hedging) that are supporting the market and pinning volatility. We had an attempted coup and the vix went to 26.5. The monthly options expire Jan 15 and those supporting flows will start to decline next week. Do people roll forward or take their money and run? Time will tell. In the very short term this market looks like it wants to push higher, news flow be damned. In the medium term (6-8wks), it looks like it wants to correct on a technical basis at least. 50-day in S&P is 3600 or so, and hitting that is a 5% correction. 10% down is around 3400. If flows remain supportive and vol remains pinned, look for a rotation from Growth to Value. We have already seen that. As I type this, YTD, Energy up 8%, Financials up 5%, QQQ (Tech) slightly negative. Vix may not be moving but the underlying pieces are.
 
I know very little about Moderna but post-Covid, what does it have going for it? Will they use those unique carriers in future vaccines for different illnesses?
If this Covid vaccine works, the RNA method will be used for other illnesses going forward. Speed to market is clearly better than traditional. Moderna and BioNtech are the leaders in the space.
 
Last summer I was talking to someone that YOLO'd house sale proceeds (couple 100K) into TSLA. I think they got in at close to $100 in the spring. I was shaking my head, so much risk that was for the majority of their savings and they were in their mid-70s. I wonder if they are still holding on to all of it. Not sure I could stomach looking at those unrealized gains on an account.
 
Good question. Don't really have an answer or I would be shopping for a ranch filled with elk and deer right now. No way to know for sure. Monday was interesting. My explanation- people held off selling in 2020 for tax reasons and then once 2021 hit they decided to step aside for fear of a capital gains increase. Jan 5 elections come and go and then Market starts pricing in more fiscal/monetary stimulus, knowing that the last checks went straight into the market. There are also dealer flows (hedging) that are supporting the market and pinning volatility. We had an attempted coup and the vix went to 26.5. The monthly options expire Jan 15 and those supporting flows will start to decline next week. Do people roll forward or take their money and run? Time will tell. In the very short term this market looks like it wants to push higher, news flow be damned. In the medium term (6-8wks), it looks like it wants to correct on a technical basis at least. 50-day in S&P is 3600 or so, and hitting that is a 5% correction. 10% down is around 3400. If flows remain supportive and vol remains pinned, look for a rotation from Growth to Value. We have already seen that. As I type this, YTD, Energy up 8%, Financials up 5%, QQQ (Tech) slightly negative. Vix may not be moving but the underlying pieces are.
While I pretty much agree with everything you said, for anyone with a time horizon of more than a month, that is all irrelevant. For a short term trader, it is all relevant. Just depends on each person's objective.
 
While I pretty much agree with everything you said, for anyone with a time horizon of more than a month, that is all irrelevant. For a short term trader, it is all relevant. Just depends on each person's objective.
Completely correct. The only exceptions are if you have cash to put to work or if you are heavy equity risk. If you are 25, 90% equity is no big deal. If you are 55 and at 90%, might want to pare that back just a wee bit.

I have seen bubbles before. No one ever wants the bubble to stop, but they do...always. Then people complain two years later that they are still not as wealthy as they were 2 or 3 or 5 years prior.
 
Last summer I was talking to someone that YOLO'd house sale proceeds (couple 100K) into TSLA. I think they got in at close to $100 in the spring. I was shaking my head, so much risk that was for the majority of their savings and they were in their mid-70s. I wonder if they are still holding on to all of it. Not sure I could stomach looking at those unrealized gains on an account.
That's an extremely limited forward outlook to place such an amount into a single stock - better odds than the lottery though wow! Then again, if a couple hundred thousand is 10% of their diversified 'folio... more power to them.
 
I have built up some cash on the sidelines over the last few months and I just can't stomach putting it into anything right now the way everything is priced.

Then again I can't make myself pull anything out right now either.

Only about 10% in cash right now, but that isn't a very good long term option.

Was looking at some Cannabis ETFs but they are mostly Canadian companies and not sure they are really going to be the big winners as more states legalize it. Plus they are already up quite a bit.
 
I have built up some cash on the sidelines over the last few months and I just can't stomach putting it into anything right now the way everything is priced.

Then again I can't make myself pull anything out right now either.

Only about 10% in cash right now, but that isn't a very good long term option.

Was looking at some Cannabis ETFs but they are mostly Canadian companies and not sure they are really going to be the big winners as more states legalize it. Plus they are already up quite a bit.
Talk of Biden and co federally legalizing.

I bought some and am holding my long positions

Names to watch:
APHA (Aphria)
GTBIF (Green Thumb Industries)
CGC (Canopy Growth)
CURLF (Curaleaf)
TCNNF (Trulieve)
MSOS (ETF)
CRON (Cronos)
HEXO (Hexo Corp)
 
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