Anybody Buying Yet? Where’s the Bottom?

...getting 5-6% with limited risk is awful tough.
You are being too kind.
There are two ways to get there
1) You can take on risky assets and try to hedge out some part of the downside (like my example) at a cost. Very popular strategy with wealthy European and Japanese investors.
2) You can use leverage. The age old secret to Real Estate and private equity, and the new structure of a lot of ETFs.
 
Sold (bought my shorts) for MU premarket (-$82), hopped to INTC quick turn as it was reversing, (+$12) lunch $. Shorted UAL and came out ahead, so far. Going to hold the short on UAL as they're heading to earnings (7days).
So, it turned to green today. Thought this might be a red day. Again, hobby lunch $. Just for fun.
Screenshot_20200407-121315.png
 
I am not a individual FA, so I don't know the minutia of the tax rules, but everyone talked about it on the another thread so I will leave that alone.
I dealt with large pension manager, but we can play this out for fun. They need like 6.75-7.25% for meet liabilities.

You: I have two years to retirement. I want 5-6% returns with risk, but minimal risk
Me: Don't we all.?
You: What do you mean?
Me: What is your definition of "minimal"? I assume you are not a fan of equities if they drop 10% in a day. You can buy a two year Treasury to yield 0.3%, Apple bond AA+ rated to yield 0.80%. Two year CD will get you about 1.3%. Some Revenue Muni bonds will bring you 1.5%. I can get you 2-2.25% on Mortgage backed (FNMA, GNMA, etc), but you take on duration and convexity risk plus the recently announced forebearance requests went up 2000%, so the market is a little "in flux" right now. So 5-6% is wishful thinking. Basically impossible without equities. You can build a hedged equity portfolio own the S&P at $273, but an at the money hedge (270 strike) for June 2021 is $28 (10%). You get all the upside and very little downside over the next year, but it cost you 10%.
You: WTF! You suck!
:LOL:
You told me more than most advisers have on the phone.
 
I bought Bank of america and Marathon at the opening bell. I talked with an accountant that happens to own this website and he mentioned something about how BOA was the only ones with their chit together to lend out all the cash for the stimulus. With the huge amount to lend, at the interest they will make that one was a no brainer for a long haul. Marathon was just a petro gamble, I made good returns on BP in the past and as I always say, big oil is not going out of business anytime soon. Plus the 11% div is nice if it is safe.
Go Marathon go!! up 20% since purchase
 
Bought my shorts w/ UAL (+$171), bought low @ +2% and it's up 10%. Selling and will hop back on the short side for tomorrow.
 
As with Politics, if you're looking for news tailored to your desired vision, you'll read that news and it will be prophetic! "Like OMG!"
Others are not so KoolAid addicted.

Same with the stock market.

With that said, I came across this article fitting thread title. Take as you would like.

 
As with Politics, if you're looking for news tailored to your desired vision, you'll read that news and it will be prophetic! "Like OMG!"
Others are not so KoolAid addicted.

Same with the stock market.

With that said, I came across this article fitting thread title. Take as you would like.

I get conflicting feelings on these stories. I hear other stories he is sitting on a pile of cash waiting to buy in like after selling a ton of airline stocks.. I know he says a lot about buying good stocks with DIVs and let them grow but the guy has to buy and sell otherwise he would never beat the S&P correct?? Is he a do as I say and not do as I do guy?
 
I get conflicting feelings on these stories. I hear other stories he is sitting on a pile of cash waiting to buy in like after selling a ton of airline stocks.. I know he says a lot about buying good stocks with DIVs and let them grow but the guy has to buy and sell otherwise he would never beat the S&P correct?? Is he a do as I say and not do as I do guy?
FWIW, I don't think Buffet's model can be matched by individual investors, even if they read all of his insights.
 
Buffett and his Omaha Kingdom - Pulling funds from one and reallocating elsewhere in an extreme overweight market of great companies... I think that's his avenue. He's not trying to identify the bottom of the market he's identifying those companies that have a lot of upside potential that are very undervalued because of this extreme bear market.
 
Preferreds with a warrant (call option) kicker. He gets the warrant for practically free and that is where most of the gains come from.
Way over my head...... So you say he can buy stuff that we can't? Is this why I can't buy Sunoco in my 401K?
 
Way over my head...... So you say he can buy stuff that we can't? Is this why I can't buy Sunoco in my 401K?
Basically. When the wolves are at the door, companies call Buffett. He not only gets to say Yes or No, but he gets to set the terms. The article below shows a good example of how he makes his money. Sitting on a huge chunk of cash for years would kill any other investor.
I am surprised he hasn't made a deal lately. And I also thing the government should take note make similar structures in bailouts.

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/06/30/warren-buffett-just-made-a-quick-12-billion-on-bank-of-america.html
 
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Basically. When the wolves are at the door, companies call Buffett. He not only gets to say Yes or No, but he gets to set the terms. The article below shows a good example of how he makes his money. Sitting on a huge chunk of cash for years would kill any other investor.
I am surprised he hasn't made a deal lately. And I also thing the government should take note make similar structures in bailouts.

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/06/30/warren-buffett-just-made-a-quick-12-billion-on-bank-of-america.html
Yup - the big financiers don't make their wealth by timing the market (which countless data shows doesn't work), but by doing deals the average person can't. I am not suggesting insider trading, "a rigged game" or wrong doing, just that when you have billions to offer a target you get different terms than when you are trying to find a home for $50,000 out of your 401k.
 
The intelligent investor is a great read. Maybe time to run through the cliff notes once again. I find it keeps my perspective aligned with my personal overall objective. A good retirement source of funding.

 
Way over my head...... So you say he can buy stuff that we can't? Is this why I can't buy Sunoco in my 401K?

1,000%. If you want to invest like Warren Buffet just have the cash sitting around to buy $5B of 10% preferred stock in Goldman Sachs like he did 2008. Easy peasy. Most hedge fund managers do not beat the indexes so other than doing the day trading for a hobby/fun money like some do here it is a waste of time.

My wife and I have 25+ years to retirement and have our retirement accounts in 95%+ stocks using low cost index funds/ETFs. I will keep buying weekly/monthly and don't plan on changing anything in the near term. I usually look at balances quarterly, but haven't done that yet for this 1st Qtr 2020 not concerned about the lower account values I will see. We currently no after tax investments in stocks but will be trying to grow that in the near term. Probably all through Vanguard ETFs.
 
Feel good set of days has been one heck of a * rally cry.

Market seems... Well, ex UAL is on it's fourth straight day of 10+%! The options gods (long calls) are making$ hand over fist!

Overweight companies are rocketing! And it's Friday w/ serious green futures... Again. Friday, green after such a bull run is pretty amazing!
 
Sure seems the pandemonium has simmered off and institutions are in for the overweight companies...
 

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