Anybody Buying Yet? Where’s the Bottom?

[SAJ-99]

Cuban makes a lot of good points in here. Energy Cos are at prices showing people think that the government might bail it out and possibly wipe out the equity holder.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/18/mar...owed-to-buy-back-their-stocks-ever-again.html

 

[arwhntr]

I think Bill Ackman hits a lot of nails on the head here today.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/18/bil...res-to-save-the-economy-shut-it-down-now.html

 

[SAJ-99]

I think Bill Ackman hits a lot of nails on the head here today.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/18/bil...res-to-save-the-economy-shut-it-down-now.html

Agree with a lot of what he said. The harder the prevention measures the shorter the pain. On the positive front, the ECB just threw its “kitchen sink” at the problem. There are indications the Fed has asked Congress to allow it to do the same. Time will tell.

 

[NYyotekiller]

Yep, just bought 20.6 acres of ground that borders my place today.

Much smarter investment right now especially considering I paid around $1k an acre for it.

 

[Nick87]

Yep, just bought 20.6 acres of ground that borders my place today.

Much smarter investment right now especially considering I paid around $1k an acre for it.

That's the best purchase one can make. Congrats

 

[Deleted member 28227]

i'm becoming less optimistic about the economic recovery of this with every passing day

a lot of good points made in the media about how this thing could turn around economically

but man, things are getting bad out there. hard to see a pretty road to recovery for the world and US economy right now

sure hope i'm wrong

I think in times like these it's important that we as humans are hardwired to have a hard time with change.

Eg. Think about trying to plan a beach vacation in the middle of winter, or if one year you have a super cold elk hunt, the next year you pack like it's going to be the same no matter what the weather report says.

We just have a hard time seeing big changes, Oct of this year I bet 99% of this forum said the economy was going to continue growing.

Market is going down now, it will go up eventually. You know it, I know... we just have to keep telling each other that fact so we don't lose our shit

 

[redwoood]

Never purchased a real stock (not counting my long term retirement stuff) in my life until today.

Just a few grand from the excess play fund, if I lose it, oh well. Deleted the app off my phone and will check it in a couple months.

Really feel bad for some people right now.

What app did you use?

 

[ida homer]

I'm in the real estate finance industry and I'm not seeing a real estate market collapse on the horizon. Actually, we are as busy as we've ever been because of the low rates. Underwriting and lending has been much more conservative in recent years compared to 2008/09 and prior. Sure, values are high again, but they aren't as risky as they used to be. If I had to venture a guess, most lenders are going to work with people who struggle to make payments for a few months rather than foreclosing on a whole bunch of properties.

I'm an appraiser. I'm absolutely buried in refi's up to my neck, I should be typing and not on HT.
I'm going to go with your prediction, because its more optimistic than mine and you know more than me about lending.
My guess? Substantial real estate slow down within 2 months, but hot damn I hope ajricketts is right!!!

 

[Nick87]

I'm an appraiser. I'm absolutely buried in refi's up to my neck, I should be typing and not on HT.
I'm going to go with your prediction, because its more optimistic than mine and you know more than me about lending.
My guess? Substantial real estate slow down within 2 months, but hot damn I hope ajricketts is right!!!

We just sold our house 3 weeks ago at an astronomical price. I was wondering if we did the right thing as we are renting a house until we find what we are looking for. In no way do I want a recession, but I'm thinking I may have timed selling that house with a pocketful of cash just right by dumb luck. A big part of me hopes I'm wrong.

 

[Trial153]

Ten year T note. Not many takers. Have we finally decided that goverment debt matters or is it the the obvious....if you have to cover losses what better place to is there to pull from? What say you?

 

[VikingsGuy]

Ten year T note. Not many takers. Have we finally decided that goverment debt matters or is it the the obvious....if you have to cover losses what better place to is there to pull from? What say you?

My vote is the later, but who knows - if TP is the new gold, maybe T notes are irrelevant.

 

[SAJ-99]

We just sold our house 3 weeks ago at an astronomical price. I was wondering if we did the right thing as we are renting a house until we find what we are looking for. In no way do I want a recession, but I'm thinking I may have timed selling that house with a pocketful of cash just right by dumb luck. A big part of me hopes I'm wrong.

Dumb luck is the best king of luck, at least for me.
keep in mind, jobs is a lagging indicator and real estate tends to lag jobs. RE may not see an impact for at least a year.

 

[Nick87]

Dumb luck is the best king of luck, at least for me.
keep in mind, jobs is a lagging indicator and real estate tends to lag jobs. RE may not see an impact for at least a year.

Yah I'm definitely going iing to take my time and see how this plays out. I'm pretty sure I dont have to worry about prices going up anytime soon.

 

[SAJ-99]

Ten year T note. Not many takers. Have we finally decided that goverment debt matters or is it the the obvious....if you have to cover losses what better place to is there to pull from? What say you?

Bond markets very dislocated right now. Margin calls are being made and cash is pulled from wherever they can find liquidity.

 

[thusby]

Buying up stock in Carnival Cruises. If they avoid bankruptcy, it could be good.

 

[Sytes]

Buying up stock in Carnival Cruises. If they avoid bankruptcy, it could be good.

If you want to play the future w/o the risk of owning stock - consider forward Outlook Call Options for the tour industry. Basically, you do not own the stocks however, you are placing a "right to own" the stock (1 contract = 100 shares).
In other words, taking your CCL as an example:




A pretty good upside potential - if you believe COVID-19 will level off and give large investors a better understanding for the outlook. This is for October and holds the intrinsic value as presented. So if you see $4.30 for an "Out of the Money" $10 Strike price - that equated to the following... You paid $430 for the right to exercise "x" price for 100 shares of CCL.

Lets say by October 16th, the stock price for CCL has recovered as a grasp on COVID-19 has become common understanding and CCL stock price is (hypothetically speaking) $22.30 a share. You have the "Right" to purchase your 100 shares @ 10.00 and keep in mind you paid $4.30 for that Option. So your break even price is 14.30 per share. You have profited $8.00 per share or $800 per option you purchased. You may exercise OR <Most common practice> sell your purchased option at a higher price as the projected value may increase...

As always - Risk v Reward: The RISK is... IF the stock is = or less than the $14.30 you are losing money AND <Very important> the intrinsic value of the option fades the closer it gets to it's expiration.

 

[SAJ-99]

If you want to play the future w/o the risk of owning stock - consider forward Outlook Call Options for the tour industry. Basically, you do not own the stocks however, you are placing a "right to own" the stock (1 contract = 100 shares).
In other words, taking your CCL as an example:

View attachment 131677
View attachment 131678

A pretty good upside potential - if you believe COVID-19 will level off and give large investors a better understanding for the outlook. This is for October and holds the intrinsic value as presented. So if you see $4.30 for an "Out of the Money" $10 Strike price - that equated to the following... You paid $430 for the right to exercise "x" price for 100 shares of CCL.

Lets say by October 16th, the stock price for CCL has recovered as a grasp on COVID-19 has become common understanding and CCL stock price is (hypothetically speaking) $22.30 a share. You have the "Right" to purchase your 100 shares @ 10.00 and keep in mind you paid $4.30 for that Option. So your break even price is 14.30 per share. You have profited $8.00 per share or $800 per option you purchased. You may exercise OR <Most common practice> sell your purchased option at a higher price as the projected value may increase...

As always - Risk v Reward: The RISK is... IF the stock is = or less than the $14.30 you are losing money AND <Very important> the intrinsic value of the option fades the closer it gets to it's expiration.

The implied vol on those options is over 200. To translate- VERY expensive. At least spread it by selling a 15 Call or sell near term calls on a calendar spread. If you want to be long, just buy the stock at $10 rather than a time burning option at $4.3. The stock is trading like an option right now anyway - and an option with no expiration.

 

[rmauch20]

All right, which one of you is it that’s driving futures up this morning?
It seems like all I’m hearing is bad news, record unemployment numbers coming out, and California essentially shutting down, but then again maybe that’s why am not a money manager

 

[noharleyyet]

Still waiting on a tip from a Senator....

 

[SAJ-99]

All right, which one of you is it that’s driving futures up this morning?
It seems like all I’m hearing is bad news, record unemployment numbers coming out, and California essentially shutting down, but then again maybe that’s why am not a money manager

A lot of contracts expire today (quadruple witching) with a lot of money at stake. Volatility is expected to be very high all day. Maybe, just maybe, we quiet down next week and start to see a bottom. The news flow isn't going to get any better, but the market will look forward to second half of 2020 if not further. at this rate over 50m will have contracted the virus in 90days.