Mwahahaha......as I sit here greedily rubbing my mitts together over my prescient thinking
Anybody Buying Yet? Where’s the Bottom?
- Thread starter NEWHunter
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Mwahahaha......as I sit here greedily rubbing my mitts together over my prescient thinking
No doubt, be heavy cash and it'll work out over the long haul. Casino betting and day trading are for those that can't live without stress in their daily lives. I prefer sitting over here in a relaxed and ready mode.
Tiredofthebickering
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I think if you're still cash heavy you missed out. I'm no genius but I've doubled where I was at the bottom, which is up roughly 20-30% from before the crash. Even if it crashed again I'd still be ahead so long as I don't ride it to the bottom.
SAJ-99
Well-known member
Imp Vols in all airlines across the strike curve are high. UAL is 100, American is 110, even Jets is 75. It’s earnings season. UAL dropped 10% last earnings report, so the Imp vol doesn’t seem too out of whack (so like most Zacks articles, that one isn’t much help). It is temping to try to collect it somehow, but picking a direction is tough. Good luck. Hope you collect enough for an expensive lunch.Are you referring to a Synthetic Short Stock action? Remember, I'm just a hobbiest
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NDGuy
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I have been buying mostly ETFs like VOO(S&P 500), VGT (Tech), QQQ(S&P 100), and ARKK(Tech favoring Tesla and other disruptive innovations)
Trying to back out of single stocks except MSFT, Apple, Visa, and a few others as we continue to reach ATHs.
Trying to back out of single stocks except MSFT, Apple, Visa, and a few others as we continue to reach ATHs.
Tiredofthebickering
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I've been doing that too. My biggest holding by far is TQQQ, an ETF based on the Nasdaq 100 if I remember correctly. I also hold a couple shares of TSLA directly and a couple other small things. I figures those companies in TQQQ are strong in general and if I just park my IRA there for the next 20 years I should be in good shape.
I tinker with SMH and IGV on occasions. less risk/less tears or cheers (ETF Semiconductor). Though mostly enjoy (hobby lunch $) more volatile individuals. Often split between 2-3 stocks, unless my foggy bowling ball demands otherwise.
Pretty evident the airlines are volitile as heck.
Rare occasions (crystal bowling ball says I must) I'll play through an earning report, most often I play the day before premarket or the day of an aftermarket earnings release.
I like my hobby lunch $. Early school of hard knox taught me playing through earnings is risky bisness. Heck, I think on Hunt Talk alone, I've been rambling about day/swing trade lunch $ since 2011(?). I want to keep on rambling.
This is what I'm inquiring about regarding your arb(ritage?) reference... "Synthetic Short Stock action"
Pretty evident the airlines are volitile as heck.
Rare occasions (crystal bowling ball says I must) I'll play through an earning report, most often I play the day before premarket or the day of an aftermarket earnings release.
I like my hobby lunch $. Early school of hard knox taught me playing through earnings is risky bisness. Heck, I think on Hunt Talk alone, I've been rambling about day/swing trade lunch $ since 2011(?). I want to keep on rambling.
SAJ-99
Well-known member
It was just an offhanded comment trying to give the author the benefit of the doubt, because the article was essentially worthless. The article said "That is because the Jul 31, 2020 $30.00 Put had some of the highest implied volatility of all equity options today.". When I looked at the vol curve, the 7/31 $30 strike puts were in line with all the other strikes. High? -Yes, but nothing unusual about that strike, with earnings coming up and airlines operating at 25% capacity. I thought maybe the curve was skewed when the article was posted Friday morning, but traders brought it back in line Friday. If the 7/31 $30 strike Imp vol was too high (from someone "paying up"), option arb traders could sell those options and buy a different expiration date or different strike and hedge out the risk (theta or delta) and collect the difference in imp vol. Markets are pretty efficient if there is a risk-free profit to be made. It might be a synthetic short (long the put and short the call) but they split the strike (see OpInt in $35s and $36s). If I were to guess, and its just a guess, I would say someone took a decent bearish bet (1000 options or so) with a long $30s and offset the cost selling $25s. The chart below looks a lot different than it did yesterday, so clearly there are a lot of people trying to make lunch money in this name too. If I were to play it, I would probably sell UAL options and buy JETS or DAL options. If UAL earnings and forward guidance are terrible, and they will be, then the rest of the names are going to go with it. If the market reaction is positive, you collect some premium with higher delta decay in UAL than in JETS or DAL.
Addicting
Well-known member
Last week of federal benefits too. Would expect to see that compounding the problems in the next month.
Irrelevant
Well-known member
I'm sticking the my hope that we see a huge plunge soon. I'll take the losses for the current investments to have the ability to sink my cash into a market at depressed prices. Besides we are on the verge of hyperinflation.
I feel like Bob Eubanks (aged myself again) saying this...
"But wait! There's more!" Another, what political party can buy more election votes, stimulus (bullshit) package.
Don't think of the trillions... think of the big screen TV you can buy...
Government slogan,
No need to riot for it, we'll buy-it!
"But wait! There's more!" Another, what political party can buy more election votes, stimulus (bullshit) package.
Don't think of the trillions... think of the big screen TV you can buy...
Government slogan,
No need to riot for it, we'll buy-it!
Shangobango
Well-known member
I went ahead and maxed out my 401k contribution a few months ago. I am far from an expert but buy low and sell high just makes sense.
SAJ-99
Well-known member
Too much unused excess capacity resulting in low commodity prices. Current problem is deflation. Hard to imagine a scenario of hyperinflation. Maybe a long way down the road, but right now it isn't even on the map. Consumers and businesses have everything they need (except maybe customers, depending on the business). You need demand to increase to get hyperinflation. Only thing getting inflated right now is financial assets.
Irrelevant
Well-known member
You are the expert, but I don't see who when we're actively flooding the market with trillions of new dollars how you won't get inflation as a result. I already feel like I'm seeing it, everything is costing 20% more.
SAJ-99
Well-known member
I agree, there were some supply problems in areas like meat processing due to covid 19 which caused some problems in specific areas, and I still see some shortages on the shelves at the store. Housing is an anomaly in a many ways but demand shot up in more suburban areas and declined in urban areas, so maybe that is a wash? However, cars/trucks are a bargain and have 0% financing. The overriding view is that these get fixed. We have to ask ourselves if people are putting off purchasing things now and they will all rush to buy (overwhelming supply) whenever the covid clears. Then that demand has to translate to increased hiring and eventually higher wages, because we can only get inflation if people can pay for the goods. We didn't see that post financial crisis of 2008-09 and no one can explain why. Inflation is an enigma to most economists and those who say they have it figured out should be avoided.
LopeHunter
Well-known member
Similar with recessions being difficult to predict or big stock market movements. Or if one is leading the other. The stock market has predicted nine of the past five recessions—a joke from master Keynesian of decades ago Paul Samuelson. Samuelson’s great rival on the supply-side, Wall Street Journal editorial maestro Robert L. Bartley completed the thought, when he quipped, and in the other four, Washington got the message and mended its ways in time.
A few have commented / queried about elections and the market.
Not for political debate, more a reflection by this article of historical market/presidential timeframes.
www.forbes.com
Not for political debate, more a reflection by this article of historical market/presidential timeframes.
We Looked At How The Stock Market Performed Under Every U.S. President Since Truman — And The Results Will Surprise You
Biden versus Trump. Some speculate that the future of the republic hinges on the outcome of the next election. But for smart investors it doesn't really matter who wins.
www.forbes.com
SAJ-99
Well-known member
About 30 pages ago someone said that if the Dow got back to 27,000 they would be out. Tomorrow may be that day. This market looks tired, but it continues to surprise. One more push from Congress on an extension of the stimulus may be enough to push to all time highs. I am starting to pull a little money off the table now. I will never be 100% cash, but 50/50 for me would be very prudent at these levels. I will let the younger crowd earn that last 3-5%.
Good luck.
Good luck.
