Anybody Buying Yet? Where’s the Bottom?


Interesting move. D is Buffett's new energy run. Is this worth considering, mid/long term?

Have owned berkshire b shares in the past, first time was in '96 when they were originally issued. Should have never sold them cuz nothing I've ever seen was a surer bet than investing with Buffet for the long haul.
 

Interesting move. D is Buffett's new energy run. Is this worth considering, mid/long term?
Nothing in this transaction looks terribly exciting. But that may be the point. I think he is buying a cash flow generating business as a decent price. I don't think there is tremendous upside. This country can pump natural gas at will. Transportation and storage fees for nat gas might give a decent return when compared to interest rates, which are going to remain low for a long time, but there is little growth in the business and that is what the market is paying up for. I hold a slice of my total portfolio in value stocks (which is mostly energy and financials), but it has lagged for a decade. I don't see that changing.
 
With rising Covid cases I parked everything I had working today. Was able to make a few thousand since June 25. Time for me to sit back and watch for another drop.
 
Screenshot_20200707-162456.png

5yr / wkly view. Gradual 210 - 230 in a couple years doesn't seem to hold as much upside though, that his modus operandi... Slow and steady, buy low at special inside bailout value and walk them up...
Time for me to sit back and watch for another drop.
I may follow suit w/ G solid though sitting G 30%, F 70%. Not as volatile as S / C though F holds decent with less threat.

I think it's time to sit back and watch for another drop or market to mellow = earning outlooks w/o Covid-19 excuse.


If I would just listen to my own advice I'd be +50% up on Tesla right now... but I didn't :(

Damn Oreo! 🤣 A buddy and I went back and forth over AMD and NVDA back '16...
Oh how I wish my Oreo flipped in some manner to have left my hobby $ in NVDA... I played their earnings and was whooping in excitement over a couple grand (off 5k) however, had I socked it...

Damn Oreo!
 
If I would just listen to my own advice I'd be +50% up on Tesla right now... but I didn't :(
I have a suspicion that isn't going to turn out well. The stock is up 40% over the last 5 days for no reason. Robinhood traders maybe? I can't wrap my head around any scenario where TSLA is worth $250B in market cap. Nice car, I admit, but not practical for most of the population. The other pieces of this business need to start showing results.
 
I have a suspicion that isn't going to turn out well. The stock is up 40% over the last 5 days for no reason. Robinhood traders maybe? I can't wrap my head around any scenario where TSLA is worth $250B in market cap. Nice car, I admit, but not practical for most of the population. The other pieces of this business need to start showing results.
I agree, but 40% is 40% and at this point what is going to bring that price back to reality?
 
I have a suspicion that isn't going to turn out well. The stock is up 40% over the last 5 days for no reason. Robinhood traders maybe? I can't wrap my head around any scenario where TSLA is worth $250B in market cap. Nice car, I admit, but not practical for most of the population. The other pieces of this business need to start showing results.
Not saying it merits the value however, TSLA is far greater than the electric cars it's built. It's akin to Ford and the vision of vehicles along with creating the entire package that make the vehicles operate, i.e. gas stations, etc. It's the entire self sustained package.

TESLA-business-model-map-1024x724.png
 
I agree, but 40% is 40% and at this point what is going to bring that price back to reality?
True. But knowing when to sell is the key. It will come down eventually. Not sure when or what the trigger will be, but you seem more comfortable living with the regret of not investing than you are putting money to work at the current price? Eventually it runs out of buyers.
 
Not saying it merits the value however, TSLA is far greater than the electric cars it's built. It's akin to Ford and the vision of vehicles along with creating the entire package that make the vehicles operate, i.e. gas stations, etc. It's the entire self sustained package.

TESLA-business-model-map-1024x724.png
Agree, but $250b in mkt cap? You can buy NKLA and it intends to presell contracts on the entire route for its trucks. The economics of that business model are far better. Buyers don’t have to worry about range because they know the exact charging station they will refuel at. For a commercial carrier, it seems better.
 
Wooohooo! A very nice lunch for tomorrow for the hobby play. Don't believe I'll be giving to the poor though. ;)

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I still trying to wrap my head around the seriousness of the economy and these prices. For example, I heard today, for the 2nd straight month, about 33% didn't fully pay mortgage or rent last month. At some point something has to give. The S&P at all time high when many people thought it was over bought 12 months ago when the economy was at full speed.
 
I still trying to wrap my head around the seriousness of the economy and these prices. For example, I heard today, for the 2nd straight month, about 33% didn't fully pay mortgage or rent last month. At some point something has to give. The S&P at all time high when many people thought it was over bought 12 months ago when the economy was at full speed.
I think you’re looking at a bubble. Most of the inflated prices you are seeing is due to the fed printing piles of money and congress writing checks to anyone with a pulse. Also, keep in mind that the fed was already cutting rates to zero and trying to stimulate the economy prior to the covid crisis.
 
I still trying to wrap my head around the seriousness of the economy and these prices. For example, I heard today, for the 2nd straight month, about 33% didn't fully pay mortgage or rent last month. At some point something has to give. The S&P at all time high when many people thought it was over bought 12 months ago when the economy was at full speed.
Just curious, where did you hear that 33% number? Reported forbearance rates in June were less than 9% and rent deferrals much less than that.
agree that Valuations are high and will go higher.Big tech is having quite a run.It will switch eventually. Always does.
 
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