Anybody Buying Yet? Where’s the Bottom?

SAJ-99 said:
I think you misinterpreted my post, but I shall oblige. I still have a problem with Trump making money from this, but scammers gotta scam.
I know the primary objective , and you can certainly sit around hoping. I don't "cover it over", I (and most sane people) just don't see it happening. We are not making iPhone is the US. Not happening, regardless of how much he threatens Apple with a tariff. No one is paying $3500 for an iPhone. Not to mention we are not going to get the people on Medicaid currently only working 20hrs per week to suddenly jump in to a 40hr job making iPhones. There are certainly problems that we need to address, but the this isn't a solution.

This article below shows small hints that he is getting it, but just can't find a way out of the box he has built around himself.
www.usatoday.com

Trump: America is looking to build tanks and computers not socks and T-shirts

China, with whom Trump has been locked in trade war for months, has been the world's largest apparel manufacturer and exporter for more than a decade.
www.usatoday.com
Click to expand...

Maybe I did misinterpret your post, but my response was towards the article's choice of words, esp. 'TACO' trades, convey a short-term mindset that Trump is just going to chicken out. To me, there's nothing chicken about punching a hornet's nest to get trade deals renegotiated at warp speed by calling out our allies for cheating us and by confronting China. Xi is Trump's enemy, but Xi respects Trump because he plays hardball.

Conversely, I also consider it shallow to assume these short-term market changes don't matter in the long run. I don't fully understand the enigmatic play of this volatile impact on bond markets and treasuries, but I accept that the greater danger is we end up in economic stagflation.

Another point about the BI article: some spin helps frame and sell a message, but other spin has the danger of obscuring primary goals and the means to achieve them. I abhor the political game, but enjoy learning about how it plays out. Also, I find it entertaining to learn and understand how these real-life changes are getting ready to impact our country.

I, too, have a problem with Trump shattering the emoluments clause on a larger scale than any president before, but this is something all presidents in recent history are guilty of. His recent speech at a private memecoin dinner behind the Presidential seal is getting less press than the Jet from Qatar. That dinner is the real story.
 
JAG said:
Maybe I did misinterpret your post, but my response was towards the article's choice of words, esp. 'TACO' trades, convey a short-term mindset that Trump is just going to chicken out. To me, there's nothing chicken about punching a hornet's nest to get trade deals renegotiated at warp speed by calling out our allies for cheating us and by confronting China. Xi is Trump's enemy, but Xi respects Trump because he plays hardball.
Click to expand...
I must have missed those trade deals that were “renegotiated at warp speed” (munis the UK deal which was almost a joke and mostly for cameras). Seems like mostly we get claims of things happening but no real deals. Credit to his team for talking a good game and staying on point.

My point was the market is openly laughing at him now every time he makes these announcements. The algorithms react to the post and then the buying starts. Consequently he is less likely to”chicken out” the next time, if only to try to regain some credibility. We are no where near an end to this.

You need to start another thread on the corruption stuff. I want to keep this one focused on the market.
 
LopeHunter said:
A manufacturing renaissance in America is not a significant job-creator creator except during facility construction.

Labor-intensive manufacturing of durables is not coming back unless robotics is on a short track to displace workers.
Click to expand...

Correct, this is a nice way to frame the current administration's goal to bring back the jobs of the future (robotics- and the careers/jobs needed to install, service, and maintain),
not the jobs of the past (labor-intensive manufacturing).


SAJ-99 said:
We are not making iPhone is the US. Not happening, regardless of how much he threatens Apple with a tariff. No one is paying $3500 for an iPhone. Not to mention we are not going to get the people on Medicaid currently only working 20hrs per week to suddenly jump in to a 40hr job making iPhones.
Click to expand...

LopeHunter, you say he's spot on, but clarified how the manufacturing renaissance is not expected to create a massive volume of labor-intensive jobs (which I agree with)- despite his point that we don't have enough people to fill these positions.

I see the 'iPhone fight' as a ruse by Trump to get China and Cook to the table, mainly China.

At least in this term, his strategy has been: start with an outrageous demand, convince the other side you're fckng serious and crazy, get them to the table, negotiate backwards, achieve a better deal, dismiss the other side as they leave with a relieved, 'whew, thank you!'
 
SAJ-99 said:
I must have missed those trade deals that were “renegotiated at warp speed” (munis the UK deal which was almost a joke and mostly for cameras). Seems like mostly we get claims of things happening but no real deals. Credit to his team for talking a good game and staying on point.

My point was the market is openly laughing at him now every time he makes these announcements. The algorithms react to the post and then the buying starts. Consequently he is less likely to”chicken out” the next time, if only to try to regain some credibility. We are no where near an end to this.

You need to start another thread on the corruption stuff. I want to keep this one focused on the market.
Click to expand...

Hahaha!, agreed, no more corruption on this thread.

Gotcha, yes, they are laughing. When I see articles and reports like this, I keep asking myself, what's going on, what bias is in the message, how is the bias impacting it, is the perspective focused on the present, short term, and what long-term impacts are being ignored? By answering all these questions, I accept it because I ain't changing squat except a vote or how I plan my trades (can you tell I'm not a day trader?).

He had a 4-year 'time-out' to plan out what and how he would achieve it all in his next term. With just 4 years to do it with a quick mid-term election speed bump, I don't see another way to do this other than be this aggressive and conscience-blind with the world.
 
JAG said:
"Wall Street is betting that the worst of President Trump’s trade war is in the rearview mirror."

I am skeptical of that optimism.

@brymoore and @SAJ-99: In light of that article, what's your take on the foreseeable future?
Click to expand...
More volatility. Kind of my original point. I’m pretty sure he didn’t learn anything about tariffs in the last 100days. If you follow markets like me, the markets do best when he isn’t talking. Maybe he plays golf every day? Win-win.

Regarding China, I can’t see a way that this ends with Trump and Xi simultaneously claiming they got the bigger piece of the pie for their country. But I also can’t envision a good resolution at all. Maybe China agrees to buy more treasuries? It really might not matter if the solution is good, rather whether if it can be sold to the voter that it is good.

Regarding Apple, it cost them 4yrs and somewhere between $25-$50b for them to build a plant in India. Asking them to burn it to the ground now is tough sell. They will take the tariffs, open Apple stores in Tijuana, and wait for the next election.
 
JAG said:
Correct, this is a nice way to frame the current administration's goal to bring back the jobs of the future (robotics- and the careers/jobs needed to install, service, and maintain),
not the jobs of the past (labor-intensive manufacturing).
Click to expand...

A few random thoughts: What I don't understand is who here in the US is going to work all these new jobs that would apparently be created? At present the unemployment rate isn't terribly high -- this isn't 1933.

We're a service/consumer based economy and at the micro level, a lot of places (big and small) can't even hire enough people to be fully or properly staffed. Add to that -- as this point was probably already made in this thread -- will young people really want to work in a factory? Between the high cost of labor (wage rates) in many states, people having the attention span of a gnat, and needing a 90 minute lunch break to buy food at an overpriced food cart and then post about it to TikTok, I don't think we're going back to the good old days of Rosie the Riveter.
 
more_cowbell said:
A few random thoughts: What I don't understand is who here in the US is going to work all these new jobs that would apparently be created? At present the unemployment rate isn't terribly high -- this isn't 1933.

We're a service/consumer based economy and at the micro level, a lot of places (big and small) can't even hire enough people to be fully or properly staffed. Add to that -- as this point was probably already made in this thread -- will young people really want to work in a factory? Between the high cost of labor (wage rates) in many states, people having the attention span of a gnat, and needing a 90 minute lunch break to buy food at an overpriced food cart and then post about it to TikTok, I don't think we're going back to the good old days of Rosie the Riveter.
Click to expand...

Advanced manufacturing is included in the jobs of the future which means that if the shift happens, it won’t be a voluminous influx of open positions to handle quantity.

If it happens, it will be more of a gradual increase of skilled labor positions seeking people to do the things robots cannot, welding opportunities are still robust (have plenty of niches that can’t be eliminated by bots), people to service, program, and maintain the bots that replaced Rosie the riveter, mechatronics, cybersecurity, … degrees that high schoolers can obtain where the work is far more advanced; a host of ‘work smarter, not harder’ opportunities.
 
JAG said:
Correct, this is a nice way to frame the current administration's goal to bring back the jobs of the future (robotics- and the careers/jobs needed to install, service, and maintain),
not the jobs of the past (labor-intensive manufacturing).




LopeHunter, you say he's spot on, but clarified how the manufacturing renaissance is not expected to create a massive volume of labor-intensive jobs (which I agree with)- despite his point that we don't have enough people to fill these positions.

I see the 'iPhone fight' as a ruse by Trump to get China and Cook to the table, mainly China.

At least in this term, his strategy has been: start with an outrageous demand, convince the other side you're fckng serious and crazy, get them to the table, negotiate backwards, achieve a better deal, dismiss the other side as they leave with a relieved, 'whew, thank you!'
Click to expand...
Outrageous demands is how kids, dictators and idiots negotiate. The stock markets, housing sales, consumer sentiment are also in a tailspin due to inconsistency on what is being sought. What a lousy communicator and a blatant self-dealer for his family and himself. Sill waiting for his stopping the Russia/Ukraine conflict in his first 24 hours. Is that punching the hornet's nest, too?
 
I have a small Robinhood account and about the only thing I use it for is to get IPO access. So far it really hasn't done much for me, a few times I ended up with a whopping 1 share of the IPO and none of them have really done that well.

I signed up for the CoreWeave CRWV IPO and got allocated a whopping 12 shares. Out of the box it jumped but then settled back below the IPO price. Thought about actually buying another 88 shares to at least get to 100 but the way these things have gone decided to just leave it alone.

300%+ in 2 months later and sure wish I would have picked up some extra shares.

My 401k just hit it's all time high yesterday.
 
Beignet said:
Massie is one of the last people in Congress with any integrity. Gotta admire him for that.

He also used to write a cool blog called “Building a Timberframe Home From Scratch.”
Click to expand...
He is consistent in messaging on the debt, but he would never vote for higher taxes. The bond market will tell them when they have gone too far.
 
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