Anybody Buying Yet? Where’s the Bottom?

BigHornRam

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I agree

Several have asked me and I have said basically what Bighornram said above. The only thing I do wonder about is the possibility of hyperinflation, if the financial package from the Senate passes the House ( without changes), I will probably have my family add Gold. But my crystal ball is a bit cloudy today (-;

If I was 30 or even 20 years younger I would buy a new sail boat, look for a young man that is good at sailing, fishing, and whatever ---that would be my investment strategy . hunting wife , panda bear i would invite you but your married. maybe mtelkhuntress and randi might want to with me (-;
I said don't react impulsively, Europe! :)
 

NEWHunter

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Would now be a good time to try to move 401k investments towards the less risky side of things? We are at least 20 years from retirement, so I’m sure are invested heavily on the more aggressive side of things.
A bit hard to say without knowing your definition of risky and what you’d sell and in turn buy. But in general, I don’t think now would be good time to make that move. You have a fairly long horizon yet, similar to mine. All else equal, if you sell the riskier stuff now and buy less risky stuff, when the markets get back to where they were in February 2020, you will have a smaller account balance. Personally, I’m kind of looking to do the opposite to take advantage of the drop.
 

Sytes

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I don't mind throwing out my two cents on the projects and whether to buy / sell / hold. I've always stated I'm a hobby person that enjoys the heck out of this.
I also don't give a rats if you're upset the market went up or down based on what I said. As mentioned above you are your own maker of your money.

My play was simple the other day with this whole hoodoo stimulus...

Screenshot_20200325-101613.png

Approx... 25% return for my swing trade. (Purchase yesterday, sell today(?).
And an example of right to exercise @1/2 the price to own.

Question I ponder... Put away this little one until Nov and catch the intrinsic value or sell this today Wait for the pullback and the profit takers to drop the stock back down, buy in again using more stock money (basically, playing w/ the *casino's $) versus my own...

My buddies have an agreement in our little stock group We all share ideas. We all share our rough and tough knowledge, sage implementation of our intelligence... In the end it is to each his or her own for the decisions we make.

Edit update: Sold. I'll hop back in when it pulls back... Again.

Screenshot_20200325-113347.png
 
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BuzzH

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I’m just curious if anyone has shifted things around within their 401k to be less risky in times like this.
Nope, I kept everything the same.

I'm continuing to buy at the same pace I have for the last 20+ years. I'm in a bit of a different boat than some, as my retirement does not revolve 100% around the stock market. I can understand the uneasiness around folks that have only a 401k and SS as their retirement plan.

I believe if you're 5+ years out from retiring, I wouldn't worry too much.
 

Sytes

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A bit hard to say without knowing your definition of risky and what you’d sell and in turn buy. But in general, I don’t think now would be good time to make that move. You have a fairly long horizon yet, similar to mine. All else equal, if you sell the riskier stuff now and buy less risky stuff, when the markets get back to where they were in February 2020, you will have a smaller account balance. Personally, I’m kind of looking to do the opposite to take advantage of the drop.
I'm in the same boat. Taking advantage of the drop.

All quality, imo for those floating through w/o involvement in the market, stay the course. It will likely recover in time.
This is my simple hobby market 101 opinion.

The ONLY $ your account is using to buy lower as the market drops is the current money added to your 401 or TSP. Not the prior $ built over your employment.

Raw example:
If I had $400k and placed it in safe waters, I would not gain though I certainly would not lose the 90k (+,-) some are reeling w/ today. Instead, when the market starts to bank off the bottom resistance, I am placing the full $400k into that low market price, not $310k (edit for clarity: if I placed the 310k in safe waters now). Instead, I have $90k additional buying power at the low price. Not waiting 2 years in hopes it recovers from the "x" % it loses beyond current.

Also, it was approx five years when this market started it's upswing. A significant upswing!
Here we are w/ uncertain COVID-19 w/o vaccine thus GDP, travel/transport, employment, production, insider trading out the wazoo, and top it off, we are in an election year.
Election years are a reserved market time, i.e. whomever the President may rally the market or have the market retreat until it understands the administration's game plan and even then, it may retreat.

IMO, market has a vast array of overweight companies that would do anyone well if the companies gained back half what they lost this past month(+).

When this started, I pulled my TSP (gov form of 401) and placed it in safe waters. If it didn't tank, so what? I lost out on a week or two of market $.. I put it back in and all's well. Long view objective: Make $, not wait to recover lost $.

At this point, outside a crystal ball, game plan? Depends on the projected % of loss outstanding. Some project 15%, others have projected another 30%. Very few claim all's well we're at the bottom.

Pick your favorite Jim Cramer personality and field your options.
 
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redwoood

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I don't mind throwing out my two cents on the projects and whether to buy / sell / hold. I've always stated I'm a hobby person that enjoys the heck out of this.
I also don't give a rats if you're upset the market went up or down based on what I said. As mentioned above you are your own maker of your money.

My play was simple the other day with this whole hoodoo stimulus...

View attachment 132717

Approx... 25% return for my swing trade. (Purchase yesterday, sell today(?).
And an example of right to exercise @1/2 the price to own.

Question I ponder... Put away this little one until Nov and catch the intrinsic value or sell this today Wait for the pullback and the profit takers to drop the stock back down, buy in again using more stock money (basically, playing w/ the *casino's $) versus my own...

My buddies have an agreement in our little stock group We all share ideas. We all share our rough and tough knowledge, sage implementation of our intelligence... In the end it is to each his or her own for the decisions we make.

Edited. Placed wrong pic.
This has been my plan pretty much. Bought friday and sold some yesterday and today.

Plan to sideline those profits and put them in on the downturn I THINK is coming once the unemployment numbers come out and the stimulus is old news.
 

schmalts

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A bit hard to say without knowing your definition of risky and what you’d sell and in turn buy. But in general, I don’t think now would be good time to make that move. You have a fairly long horizon yet, similar to mine. All else equal, if you sell the riskier stuff now and buy less risky stuff, when the markets get back to where they were in February 2020, you will have a smaller account balance. Personally, I’m kind of looking to do the opposite to take advantage of the drop.
That's what I'm doing. Or plan at least. I sold the mutual funds that weathered the best and am looking to get into what dropped the most. Today's gain is so far showing people are calming, but it will be interesting to see what happens when unemployment numbers come out.
 

BuzzH

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The ONLY $ your account is using to buy lower as the market drops is the current money added to your 401 or TSP. Not the prior $ built over your employment.
So, do you not buy when the market is high? If you do, why?

Did you buy into your tsp in November, December, January right at the peak?

Again, if so, why?

Bottom line is that trying to time the highs and lows is not a good idea on long term investment, in particular when you buy every 2 weeks.

Day trading is way different than long term investing.
 

brymoore

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So, do you not buy when the market is high? If you do, why?

Did you buy into your tsp in November, December, January right at the peak?

Again, if so, why?

Bottom line is that trying to time the highs and lows is not a good idea on long term investment, in particular when you buy every 2 weeks.

Day trading is way different than long term investing.
I sold out before Covid because I didn’t like what I was seeing in the economy. I missed some of the last gains but have missed all of the downside so far.
 

schmalts

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So, do you not buy when the market is high? If you do, why?



Bottom line is that trying to time the highs and lows is not a good idea on long term investment, in particular when you buy every 2 weeks.

Day trading is way different than long term investing.
Yep. I'm hoping to use this money soon but if I had 5 years or further I wouldn't even look at this thread. The stress level alone is enough not to even look
 

ajricketts

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I'm not an expert by any stretch either, but I'm thinking something similar. I have a few holdings that are actually positive overall today (although much, much less than earlier this year) and I'm thinking of cashing them out if this stimulus passes. I think we'll see a big jump initially but more shedding in coming weeks. I'd like to have some cash on hand to do some buying if it falls again. Worst case scenario, I miss out on some gains over the next couple days if it keeps going up before I buy again.
I did this today. My portfolio is small, but I cashed out about 37% of my portfolio and will wait to see what happens later this week when unemployment numbers get released.
 

schmalts

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I did this today. My portfolio is small, but I cashed out about 37% of my portfolio and will wait to see what happens later this week when unemployment numbers get released.
Here is my messed up thoughts...I may be wrong but I think in the end it is just safe to wait until after the unemployment numbers to get back in either way. Either the DOW tanks and you get in AFTER it tanks, and if it doesn't tank I am probably getting in anyway because I will then feel comfortable that nothing can rattle the comeback and then I am in for the long haul. Sounds stupid, but getting out yesterday at the end of the day was a good time. Let's face it, at 29000 we were ready for a correction, and any comeback will not get close to that in a near future because we were due for a correction anyway. I don't see 29000 anytime in the next year because people like me learned a lesson and when it gets to 25ish I am going into a safe zone.
 

JLS

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Yep. I'm hoping to use this money soon but if I had 5 years or further I wouldn't even look at this thread. The stress level alone is enough not to even look
I told a buddy of mine yesterday I don't even plan to look at an investment statement for about the next 4 years. I remember how depressing it was the past couple of recessions.
 

ShootsManyBullets

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What happens when all the companies like Boeing, the airlines and the banks get their bailout and their earnings are still dog poop? AND they can't buy their stock back to pump up the prices?
Before CV popped the bubble the Fed was already bailing them out with QE and low interest rates, including a cut that came out of the blue in "a strong economy".
There will be more pain once they have to report earnings and more after that when the earnings suck and they can't blame CV. That's when it gets interesting and scary.

Regarding oil - The Saudis and Russians can produce at $20/barrel. We produce at about $45 a barrel so Putin can pound us where it hurts for a long time with low oil prices to run our frackers out of the market. Putin loaded up on gold the last 10 years to strengthen their positions while we printed money. Not a good position for us. We're going to have to make a deal with someone (Saudis) that we won't like on many levels.
 

Sytes

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Working off your questions:
So, do you not buy when the market is high? If you do, why?
Screenshot_20200325-140629.png

Five year view (DOW) that presents the low and the dramatic up trend. I rode it (TSP) for it's gains with it capping off w/ small to nil positive gains the last couple months prior to pulling out of Common / Small w/ the COVID-19 pop.

When any epic news pops of concern, I pull into G and slight F on occasion or a variation of...

If I lose a couple weeks, in what some might consider, "knee jerk", I'll take it any day of the week and place it right back into C/S/G or some play of the sort when my knee jerk relaxes. Or, in this case Pat my knee for a good call.

Much better than losing as many have experienced by rolling down the hill with this episode.
Did you buy into your tsp in November, December, January right at the peak?
Refer to prior response.

Again, if so, why?
Same reason as above. I rode it anticipating continued growth and planned to place it in G/F a couple months prior to election.

Bottom line is that trying to time the highs and lows is not a good idea on long term investment, in particular when you buy every 2 weeks.
Refer to above. I don't play w/ my retirement UNLESS something significant occurs. I stay consistent w/ this historical seasonal accounting:

Day trading is way different than long term investing.
100% agree. However, as I've mentioned countless times, I have a hobby stock market play fund separate from my TSP retirement. You are only able to do fund transfers of TSP 2x's per month and that works perfect for the money saved over the years.

I maintain 5K. Once I hits 7.5k, I pull 1.5k for family events 1k reserve for replenishing losses and for any stocks I want to hold w/o consuming my 5k and proceed.
This market right now is a cash cow for Intra and swing traders. I enjoy the heck out of it and learn a ton!

Example: I hopped out of UAL @ w/ +$475 in my market account. I'm @ 6.8K w/this win. This is working the hobby side of the market. High volatility = making or losing $. I like making $ and shake my head when losing $. I've been doing pretty good for the past couple years.

Once out of UAL, I hopped into NVDA with a short w/ only about 2k. Not fully confident it will not rocket off this stimulus. I think the market, specifically semiconductors and microchips produced in high COVID-19 areas along with their inability to move their inventory as stores are shutdown mostly, will continue a downward trend. I could be right or wrong. Right now, it's +$75. It's a learned game of riding both sides of the volume/volatility. It's good to see green. This could easily spin around on me, thus only 2k. Safe play though easy hunting/other $, if played right. Candlesticks for the... We'll find out win or lose. Pre-market buy likely though who knows.

Screenshot_20200325-161417.png

Meanwhile, my retirement sits in mainly G, as I don't think we've reached bottom. I think we're looking @ a support barrier of 18000 DOW before we see how rough COVID-19 hits us. If it breaks through lower... I'll thank my knee as those keeping all their money in will drop heavier than 15% loss.
 

RobG

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I’m just curious if anyone has shifted things around within their 401k to be less risky in times like this.
I'm not a financial adviser, but I know where you live and if you change your 401k to something "safer" after this market crash I'm going to put a sign up along hwy 287 saying "Southern Elk is the biggest nincompoop in Madison County." That's a classic investor mistake - get excited about the market when it's rocking and buy at a high price, then freak out when it crashes and sell when it is low. Humans are wired the wrong way to be instinctual investors. That's why folks who do this for a living say it is always a bad idea to make large changes in response to events.

This isn't a bad as 2009 when it looked like the whole financial system was going to collapse. If anything I'd change my future contributions to 100% equities and maybe start shifting small amounts of your "safer" investments over to equities in the next couple of months.
 

NEWHunter

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This isn't a bad as 2009 when it looked like the whole financial system was going to collapse. If anything I'd change my future contributions to 100% equities and maybe start shifting small amounts of your "safer" investments over to equities in the next couple of months.
I was in agreement until the above. Depending on how long this country and the world stay locked down, there’s a real possibility this could get worse than 2009.
 
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