Anybody Buying Yet? Where’s the Bottom?

[longbow51]

Good rant

Have you watched the Madoff doc series?

Oh yeah Regan era rhetoric for the IRS and SEC is a great idea... no one gets hurt

That was a great series. Even though the math guy handed the SEC the case on a silver platter, they did nothing year after year. Kind of like the FBI after a serial shooting; yeah, we knew about that guy.

 

[BigHornRam]

@BigHornRam, here is another article about Tesla. How low will it go?

Investors conclude that Tesla is a carmaker, not a tech firm

A share-price rout suggests they no longer think it will take over the world

finance.yahoo.com

Here's the money quote from your article:

"EV-buyers, for their part, are becoming less willing than early adopters to overlook Tesla’s questionable build quality and the interior of a much cheaper car. And the natural Tesla-owners among the wealthy progressive set are less prepared to overlook Mr Musk’s libertarian antics at Twitter, which he bought in October and has mismanaged with gusto—especially now that they have plenty of conscience-salving EV alternatives to choose from."

I think Tesla is heading for Rivian stock territory.

 

[Benfromalbuquerque]

LUV- Southwest stock. Could maybe bounce off 2020 low first in ‘23, but it’ll go on up sometime. If I were looking for a flip, I’d buy in and dump at $50.

 

[Mountain Man]

I think Tesla is heading for Rivian stock territory.

I’d be surprised if it heads that low, but you and I are in agreement that gravity has taken hold of this automaker stock.

 

[SAJ-99]

/rant off: haha!

Week ahead for stock market banter:

Oil Rises As U.S.-Iran Truce Collapses

Wall Street Breakfast: today’s stock market updates, oil prices surge on U.S.-Iran strikes, AI selloff and NATO news—get the key headlines now.

seekingalpha.com

Market keeps acting like the risk is to the upside. Can Fed stick the landing? The heavy short position in equities has come off a little. Large leveraged funds heavily short 10yr notes and long oil. Hard to find a signal in all the noise.

 

[noharleyyet]

Market keeps acting like the risk is to the upside. Can Fed stick the landing? The heavy short position in equities has come off a little. Large leveraged funds heavily short 10yr notes and long oil. Hard to find a signal in all the noise.

Larry and I agree with you.

 

[Sytes]

Market keeps acting like the risk is to the upside. Can Fed stick the landing? The heavy short position in equities has come off a little. Large leveraged funds heavily short 10yr notes and long oil. Hard to find a signal in all the noise.

I've held 10 puts of INTC since August. In December, picked up 10 cheap OTM calls. Time to sell the puts and let the call ride. My INTC calls are ITM now
Not sure of the common market though Semiconductors seem to be on the upswing, finally.

I may dump off the INTC and move back over to AMD or NVDA.
Until then, seems INTC has a bit more movement upwards.

I was looking at ENVX looks like their settling and might also be an opportunity. ( @BigHornRam shared ticker)

Seems I'm looking more bullish, atm. Different market segments, I guess?

 

[Benfromalbuquerque]

I've held 10 puts of INTC since August. In December, picked up 10 cheap OTM calls. Time to sell the puts and let the call ride. My INTC calls are ITM now
Not sure of the common market though Semiconductors seem to be on the upswing, finally.

I may dump off the INTC and move back over to AMD or NVDA.
Until then, seems INTC has a bit more movement upwards.

I was looking at ENVX looks like their settling and might also be an opportunity. ( @BigHornRam shared ticker)

Seems I'm looking more bullish, atm. Different market segments, I guess?

it’s been lack of discipline that schools me in my experience thus far with options trading. Like lose 10%, sell it; gain 25%, sell it and don’t look back. Or whatever my self-made rules are at the moment.

 

[Sytes]

it’s been lack of discipline that schools me in my experience thus far with options trading. Like lose 10%, sell it; gain 25%, sell it and don’t look back. Or whatever my self-made rules are at the moment.

Or the usual, hang onto the red because "I can't be wrong... It has to turn around!" Meanwhile my green I sell quick for fear it may turn red and instead of a trailing stop, I lose out of the green that follows when I sell.

Haha! I still have 4k shares of SENS!

 

[SAJ-99]

In the vein of @wllm joke, here is 5min in the water-is-wet message category. Pioneer CEO says don't believe the curve, believe me.

Once oil demand picks up, things are going to get very tight, says Pioneer's Sheffield

CNBC's Brian Sullivan talks to Scott Sheffield of Pioneer Natural Resources about oil supply and what he sees for oil prices over the next year.

www.cnbc.com

 

[Deleted member 28227]

In the vein of @wllm joke, here is 5min in the water-is-wet message category. Pioneer CEO says don't believe the curve, believe me.

Once oil demand picks up, things are going to get very tight, says Pioneer's Sheffield

CNBC's Brian Sullivan talks to Scott Sheffield of Pioneer Natural Resources about oil supply and what he sees for oil prices over the next year.

www.cnbc.com

I am a bit surprised that we haven’t been filling the SPR at these prices, but I’m more $100 before $60… $150 is a bit crazy IMHO

 

[SAJ-99]

I am a bit surprised that we haven’t been filling the SPR at these prices, but I’m more $100 before $60… $150 is a bit crazy IMHO

I agree (with you and him) . I am pretty sure we are filling SPR. But This guy has been calling for $120 oil since last summer. Every meeting I ever had with O&G people was "future supply is going down and price is going up". Literally, since 1995. My only question is Pioneer hedging output at these prices? Sure as hell someone is.

 

[Deleted member 28227]

I agree (with you and him) . I am pretty sure we are filling SPR.

Will be... but not quickly or very much, Biden released 211MM and the initial request is for 3MM. Not going to help if prices climb next summer, and definitely not enough to prop up prices this winter.

To your point I've always found it pretty ridiculous the numbers that various OG CEOs and analysts throw out, like the $200 claims last spring. Cause and effect brohems, sure if nothing changes then you can mathematically arrive at $200, but as prices climb things change. Demand destruction isn't a cliff, it's a gentle slope.

Since 1995 a lot of domestic oil has been found, and a lot of technology for extraction + conservation + renewables has been developed. So that makes sense.

I think the Powder has the ability to increase production a bunch, but I do think he's right there isn't an obvious "next" domestic basin on the horizon.

Since the beginning of the frack boom we've gotten way better at a lot of things, for instance drill days have dramatically improved. Probably not a ton of room there for incremental improvement.

There is a decent amount of improvement with chemistry, i.e. frack chemicals, most companies are pretty rudimentary in there fracks and use the same general load on most of their wells.

Obviously we are reducing demand a bunch of different ways through EV/renewables.

Inflation in service costs is a very real thing and that's been seen in the rig count.

~1050 Feb 2019 ($55 WTI)
~250 July 2020 ($40.71 WTI)
~784 Nov 2022 ($84.37)
~772 Jan 2022 ($76.13)

There is always a lag time between rigs and WTI and as you can see above the bottoms and tops of those rig counts were delayed from peak and trough WTI by 3+ months.

But here is the point, even with tech improvements that rig count isn't going to expand production much and Nov -Jan we've seen a decline in rig count not an increase like we did last year, and Biden can't (shouldn't) release another 211MM barrels.

Could be another wild ride.

 

[Sytes]

Time to sell the puts and let the call ride. My INTC calls are ITM now

Holy chit! Glad I didn't sell the puts just yet! I was about to take care of that after my post though work pulled me away... AND glad the calls were cheapos!

WTH happened to INTC? Haha!

 

[BigHornRam]

I'm not looking for the Fed to stick the landing. I'm just hoping they can bring the plane down without a huge ball of fire.

I'm wearing a parachute 24-7 in 2023.

 

[SAJ-99]

Will be... but not quickly or very much, Biden released 211MM and the initial request is for 3MM. Not going to help if prices climb next summer, and definitely not enough to prop up prices this winter.

To your point I've always found it pretty ridiculous the numbers that various OG CEOs and analysts throw out, like the $200 claims last spring. Cause and effect brohems, sure if nothing changes then you can mathematically arrive at $200, but as prices climb things change. Demand destruction isn't a cliff, it's a gentle slope.

Since 1995 a lot of domestic oil has been found, and a lot of technology for extraction + conservation + renewables has been developed. So that makes sense.

I think the Powder has the ability to increase production a bunch, but I do think he's right there isn't an obvious "next" domestic basin on the horizon.

Since the beginning of the frack boom we've gotten way better at a lot of things, for instance drill days have dramatically improved. Probably not a ton of room there for incremental improvement.

There is a decent amount of improvement with chemistry, i.e. frack chemicals, most companies are pretty rudimentary in there fracks and use the same general load on most of their wells.

Obviously we are reducing demand a bunch of different ways through EV/renewables.

Inflation in service costs is a very real thing and that's been seen in the rig count.

~1050 Feb 2019 ($55 WTI)
~250 July 2020 ($40.71 WTI)
~784 Nov 2022 ($84.37)
~772 Jan 2022 ($76.13)

There is always a lag time between rigs and WTI and as you can see above the bottoms and tops of those rig counts were delayed from peak and trough WTI by 3+ months.

But here is the point, even with tech improvements that rig count isn't going to expand production much and Nov -Jan we've seen a decline in rig count not an increase like we did last year, and Biden can't (shouldn't) release another 211MM barrels.

Could be another wild ride.

Only downside risk seems to be Peace breaks out in Eastern Europe and we see $50.

 

[SAJ-99]

I'm not looking for the Fed to stick the landing. I'm just hoping they can bring the plane down without a huge ball of fire.

I'm wearing a parachute 24-7 in 2023.

View attachment 259911

People have been saying the same thing over the entire length of that chart.

 

[BigHornRam]

People have been saying the same thing over the entire length of that chart.

When's the last time we had 31 trillion in debt and rising interest?

 

[rogerthat]

When's the last time we had 31 trillion in debt and rising interest?

Yeah I’m definitely no genius but even I know when I see an unsustainable parabolic curve. Eventually rampant borrowing comes home to roost.

 

[SAJ-99]

When's the last time we had 31 trillion in debt and rising interest?

That isn't an argument for anything. And all charts look like that. Higher debt service will constrain growth. Lower growth limits interest rates. It is a feedback loop. All of economics and markets are a confidence game. I see no cracks in the global confidence in the US ($ or debt), so the game continues.