Anybody Buying Yet? Where’s the Bottom?

[Bam Bam]

"I find it difficult to have a meaningful discussion when you question the validity of CPI."

You are right about Friedman though... people treat him as an economics god, rather than a smart man. However, I find that I wholeheartedly agree with most of his ideas. He had a gift for explaining complex subjects, and he had a wonderful understanding of human nature to boot.
Ok, as far as inflation being uniform, I'm not sure what that proves...Inflation is never uniform- ever. Necessities tend to go up in price the most, and as times get more difficult, people spend more and more of their money on the things that they need. The things that people don't need (TV's, new windows, tuxedo rentals...ect.) tend to rise in price more slowly.

So, as far as the bottom being in the market, you are thinking that the market bottom is in, and you are buying stocks again, "99"? I am not, as you could probably tell. These FED rate hikes will hurt the economy, and begin to hurt inflation as designed-but that will also hurt the stock market. I think stocks have much further to fall, so I am holding off.

 

[SAJ-99]

"I find it difficult to have a meaningful discussion when you question the validity of CPI."

You are right about Friedman though... people treat him as an economics god, rather than a smart man. However, I find that I wholeheartedly agree with most of his ideas. He had a gift for explaining complex subjects, and he had a wonderful understanding of human nature to boot.
Ok, as far as inflation being uniform, I'm not sure what that proves...Inflation is never uniform- ever. Necessities tend to go up in price the most, and as times get more difficult, people spend more and more of their money on the things that they need. The things that people don't need (TV's, new windows, tuxedo rentals...ect.) tend to rise in price more slowly.

So, as far as the bottom being in the market, you are thinking that the market bottom is in, and you are buying stocks again, "99"? I am not, as you could probably tell. These FED rate hikes will hurt the economy, and begin to hurt inflation as designed-but that will also hurt the stock market. I think stocks have much further to fall, so I am holding off.

You can agree with him, I guess, but real life examples have shown his theories were not 100% correct. But, yeah, he sure liked the speaking circuit. If we let his "Free Market Capitalism" play out in 2008, we would still be trying to get out of that economic depression. Unfortunely, it probably worked a little too well and gave subsequent Chairs a Monetary hammer to use on every economic nail that popped up.

I'm always long, always holding substantial cash, and always buying and selling. I also can change my mind at any moment.
I can't remember the market ever allowing such a high % of negative people ever allow all those people to be correct. But agree, there are a lot of reasons not to buy, so....

 

[Bam Bam]

I admire your faith in the system. If the "bottom" is anywhere in the near future, you will come out way ahead of me and most other people, that is for sure.

 

[Buffs35]

You can agree with him, I guess, but real life examples have shown his theories were not 100% correct. But, yeah, he sure liked the speaking circuit. If we let his "Free Market Capitalism" play out in 2008, we would still be trying to get out of that economic depression. Unfortunely, it probably worked a little too well and gave subsequent Chairs a Monetary hammer to use on every economic nail that popped up.

I'm always long, always holding substantial cash, and always buying and selling. I also can change my mind at any moment.
I can't remember the market ever allowing such a high % of negative people ever allow all those people to be correct. But agree, there are a lot of reasons not to buy, so....

We'd all be better off if we let the market fail in 08. Now we have an oligopolistic economy where you are incentivized to be too big to fail.

 

[BigHornRam]

We'd all be better off if we let the market fail in 08. Now we have an oligopolistic economy where you are incentivized to be too big to fail.

I share your sentiment. We didn't however, so here we are.

 

[SAJ-99]

We'd all be better off if we let the market fail in 08. Now we have an oligopolistic economy where you are incentivized to be too big to fail.

Disagree strongly with the first sentence, agree strongly with the second. We already had oligopolistic system before 2008. Capitalism as a system is designed to encourage companies to grow big, for efficiencies. Should we break up the big companies? I would certainly like to see a stronger review of acquisitions before they are approved.

 

[Sytes]

Will be interesting to see KBH and LEN earning reports response from the market. Sept 21st, Aftermarket.

 

[BigHornRam]

Dow drops 300 points as Fed two-day policy meeting begins, rates surge

Stocks slipped on Tuesday morning ahead of the central bank's September meeting.

www.cnbc.com

"The Federal Open Markets Committee begins its September meeting on Tuesday, where central bankers are expected to announce a 0.75 percentage point rate hike on Wednesday. "

 

[HONEYBADGER]

Retailers like Walmart cancelling billions of orders before Christmas....consumer credit card spending now primarily on groceries and gas. We are far from the bottom.

I wonder if I still have time to dig a bunker and store rations..........

 

[Deleted member 28227]

Retailers like Walmart cancelling billions of orders before Christmas....consumer credit card spending now primarily on groceries and gas. We are far from the bottom.

I wonder if I still have time to dig a bunker and store rations..........

Meanwhile, I called yesterday about a jacket I've been waiting for 8 months to come in stock and was told they were on a 1 year backorder because of insane sales volumes... soooo I just don't understand anything anymore.

 

[HONEYBADGER]

Meanwhile, I called yesterday about a jacket I've been waiting for 8 months to come in stock and was told they were on a 1 year backorder because of insane sales volumes... soooo I just don't understand anything anymore.

Call a Toyota dealer they will tell you the same thing. Meanwhile in the real world Toyota has slashed production.

 

[BigHornRam]

Meanwhile, I called yesterday about a jacket I've been waiting for 8 months to come in stock and was told they were on a 1 year backorder because of insane sales volumes... soooo I just don't understand anything anymore.

"Meanwhile, Ford shares slumped 9% after it announced that supply chain issues would cost the automaker an extra $1 billion in the third quarter."

 

[Sytes]

"Meanwhile, Ford shares slumped 9% after it announced that supply chain issues would cost the automaker an extra $1 billion in the third quarter."

Interesting enough, Ford "maintained" guidance for their End of Year. Would think if they're taking such a hit, they'd announce same as FedEx. They are subing their electrical vehicle business and splicing depts to "catch-up" with their competitors.

 

[BigHornRam]

Meanwhile the government shutdown chatter is getting louder each day as we approach the end of September with no C R. Last shutdown the markets popped. Don't think that will be the case this time if it does.

 

[Sytes]

Federal employees who are not "essential" LOVE this C.R. b.s.

Free paid vacation EVERY time the R&D whine about budgets and supposedly furlough (yet receive pay later) non essential federal employees.

/Minor rant over. Need to align my Annual Leave vacation time with the furlough - maybe they'll recoup my AL. What a bunch of b.s. political crap.

Back to "Where's the bottom..."

 

[rwc101]

"At the time of this announcement, the global production plan for September through November has been revised to a higher volume, estimated to average about 900,000 units per month."

September Production Plan | Corporate | Global Newsroom | Toyota Motor Corporation Official Global Website

We at Toyota would like to again apologize for the repeated adjustments to our production plans due to the parts shortage resulting from the spread of COVID-19, and for causing considerable inconvenience to our customers, who have been waiting for the delivery of vehicles, suppliers, and other...

global.toyota

 

[SAJ-99]

Will be interesting to see KBH and LEN earning reports response from the market. Sept 21st, Aftermarket.

I can definitely say they aren't going to sound optimistic. Still think it seems like CEOs are doing their own economic "forecasts" to lower expectations. Housing has some headwinds so it's not unexpected, but the data...
Doesn't seem like the end of the world for housing.

 

[NEWHunter]

Well boys, what’s going to happen today? After today’s hike, is the fed going to keep their foot on the gas, coast a bit, or tap the breaks? Unfortunately I think it’s going to be foot on the gas and things will get ugly for a bit.

 

[BigHornRam]

Dr Doom's predictions are not overly optimistic.

Economist, who predicted 2008 crisis, warns of 'long, ugly' recession

Nouriel Roubini sees a long and ugly recession in the US and globally occurring at the end of 2022

www.livemint.com

"Once the world is in recession, Roubini doesn’t expect fiscal stimulus remedies as governments with too much debt are “running out of fiscal bullets." High inflation would also mean that “if you do fiscal stimulus, you’re overheating the aggregate demand."

As a result, Roubini sees a stagflation like in the 1970s and massive debt distress as in the global financial crisis.

“It’s not going to be a short and shallow recession, it’s going to be severe, long and ugly," he said."

"During the 2008 crisis, households and banks took the hardest hits. This time around, he said corporations, and shadow banks, such as hedge funds, private equity and credit funds, “are going to implode""

 

[Bam Bam]

Well boys, what’s going to happen today? After today’s hike, is the fed going to keep their foot on the gas, coast a bit, or tap the breaks? Unfortunately I think it’s going to be foot on the gas and things will get ugly for a bit.

I think that the economy will slow down very quickly now. I think that by Christmas, we will be in a full-blown recession (instead of just a technical recession). The FED will slow or stop interest rate hikes, in spite of their tough talk. It won't matter that inflation will not be down to their 2% goal yet.... when America really starts hurting, I'll bet they stall or pivot quickly.