Anybody Buying Yet? Where’s the Bottom?

[BigHornRam]

Don't get all emotional over the market guys. She can seduce you one day, and be a ruthless bitch the next.

 

[bwanakubwa]

Love how inflation is because of a couple of checks... and not someone putting their knee on the throat of the fed demanding ridiculous interest rates 4 years gunning for a ridiculous GDP growth rate... all in the name of votes and self aggrandizement. There were loads of economists saying the economy was too hot for 4 years... (not that you said that but it seems to be a common perception out there)

Thank god old Joey just lets the adults finally make responsible decisions.

Anyway.

Not rooting for, but would like to see the correction happen sooner than later, hopefully it can be softened. Responsible, sustained growth would be my preference, and I think we need a correction for that to happen.

Do you think either side of the political isle has handled this well?

Remember ol Joey trying to pass a multi trillion dollar infrastructure package when inflation was at 8 percent?

How about Trump talking about doing a 3rd stimulus during the last election?

Politicians do what’s good for them, end of story

 

[Buffs35]

If you are too big to fail, you are too big to exist.

 

[NEWHunter]

I am surprised by the number of people who are rooting for a significant decline. This would mean significant problems in the American economy, hurting millions of families. Have people just sat on cash for years and just want to be proven right in the doom and gloom forecast? I just don't understand.

First off, @SAJ-99 thanks for all you’ve brought to this thread. Greatly appreciated.

Not sure if your point was directed my way or not, but I’d like to speak to it anyway. I’m not rooting for a big decline at all. I’d prefer it not happen. Unfortunately, I just think it’s going to get worse before it gets better. At some point the inflation, interest rate hikes, and supply chain issues have to have a bigger impact than they have had thus far.

I work in commercial loan collections at a large bank and in the Midwest and things are SLOW. Like nobody has ever seen slow. The attorneys I work with here in this corner of country echo that. Even in good times folks file BK for one reason or another, but even that isn’t happening much according to them. On the flip side of that coin, the guys I talk to on the loan origination side say all their customers are doing great. And the businesses that might be doing so-so are sitting on a pile of cash. My point is that Main Street seems to be doing great - which doesn’t seem right. Especially not after all that has happened the last few years. My general impression after the last round of earnings was that Wall Street was doing fine as well.

I remember the .com burst and ‘08/‘09. Those hurt - a lot. Back in 2020 the world shut down for months, and it doesn’t seem like it has really cost us anything yet comparatively speaking. Supply chains and inventories (surplus or deficit) are still screwed up from COVID, money was super cheap for a long time, and then money was free for a while. At some point all that has to cost us, doesn’t it? Throw in one of the most impactful (negative) geopolitical events in a generation or two and how could this be as bad as it gets?

 

[Nick87]

Not rooting for, but would like to see the correction happen sooner than later, hopefully it can be softened. Responsible, sustained growth would be my preference, and I think we need a correction for that to happen.

This 100%, praying to God its soft or at least nothing like 08

 

[AvidIndoorsman]

Do you think either side of the political isle has handled this well?

Remember ol Joey trying to pass a multi trillion dollar infrastructure package when inflation was at 8 percent?

How about Trump talking about doing a 3rd stimulus during the last election?

Politicians do what’s good for them, end of story

I think we have had some leaders with convictions, from both parties, that advocated for the harder but objectively correct path, typically they don't fair all the well politically.

Read that speech I linked, seriously worth the time... basically nailed everything about where we are today about 1/2 a century ago, only real exception is swapping oil for coal as the Bakken and Permian hadn't been discovered yet.

 

[Deleted member 20812]

I think many of us want to see Corporations, Financial Institutions, etc. pay a price.

If Joe Six Pack thinks the recession will hurt the bigs more than it hurts him he probably needs to taper his consumption.

 

[NDGuy]

I am surprised by the number of people who are rooting for a significant decline. This would mean significant problems in the American economy, hurting millions of families. Have people just sat on cash for years and just want to be proven right in the doom and gloom forecast? I just don't understand.

The stock market went up 100% in 3 years of course I want it to come back to earth

 

[SAJ-99]

The stock market went up 100% in 3 years of course I want it to come back to earth

Why? Because you deserve to buy in at lower prices? I'm not sure where you got the 100%, is that from the ATH in January 2022? I get close if I use that time frame (like 94%). If I use todays' close and go back 3 years I get an annualized return of 8%. Pretty average for equities on a historical basis. Basically, I think it did come back to earth. Hence why I am confused some people seem to want it to fall more.

 

[NDGuy]

Why? Because you deserve to buy in at lower prices? I'm not sure where you got the 100%, is that from the ATH in January 2022? I get close if I use that time frame (like 94%). If I use todays' close and go back 3 years I get an annualized return of 8%. Pretty average for equities on a historical basis. Basically, I think it did come back to earth. Hence why I am confused some people seem to want it to fall more.

 

[schmalts]

Why? Because you deserve to buy in at lower prices? I'm not sure where you got the 100%, is that from the ATH in January 2022? I get close if I use that time frame (like 94%). If I use todays' close and go back 3 years I get an annualized return of 8%. Pretty average for equities on a historical basis. Basically, I think it did come back to earth. Hence why I am confused some people seem to want it to fall more.

What is the 5 year?

 

[NDGuy]

If I use todays' close and go back 3 years I get an annualized return of 8%. Pretty average for equities on a historical basis.

Unless you are older and in bonds etc, 8% is a terrible return over the last 3 years. 2020-2021 capped off the greatest bull run in history.

 

[Pagosa]

I am surprised by the number of people who are rooting for a significant decline. This would mean significant problems in the American economy, hurting millions of families. Have people just sat on cash for years and just want to be proven right in the doom and gloom forecast? I just don't understand.

No it’s just seeing people over spend on life’s extras and not wanting to save for a rainy day. And then wanting a bail out when things go south.

 

[SAJ-99]

Unless you are older and in bonds etc, 8% is a terrible return over the last 3 years. 2020-2021 capped off the greatest bull run in history.

8% is a price return so you have to add in a Div yield of 1-1.25%. You get pretty close to historical average. To call it terrible means your expectations are too high. Also, it isn’t the point. You said the market was up 100% and needed to correct. I said it did correct.

What is the 5 year?

11.8% as of end of August (total return) but we lost 4.5% this month so a little over 10%. That includes the tax bill that was an immediate boost to earnings and flowed through to prices.

 

[SAJ-99]

No it’s just seeing people over spend on life’s extras and not wanting to save for a rainy day. And then wanting a bail out when things go south.

I don’t think it has anything to do with that. I think people just want to complain that life is unfair, so screw everyone else and let it implode. No one has paid anything to bail out anyone. It was all deferred.

 

[NDGuy]

To call it terrible means your expectations are too high.

Never said over a long period. I said for the last few years…yes it’s terrible. The S&P 500 return alone is much higher than 8%.

 

[NDGuy]

You said the market was up 100% and needed to correct. I said it did correct.

When something goes up 100% in 2 years and then cuts back 20%, theres still plenty of room to fall. Which is likely what we will be seeing in the next year or two.

 

[rogerthat]

Why? Because you deserve to buy in at lower prices? I'm not sure where you got the 100%, is that from the ATH in January 2022? I get close if I use that time frame (like 94%). If I use todays' close and go back 3 years I get an annualized return of 8%. Pretty average for equities on a historical basis. Basically, I think it did come back to earth. Hence why I am confused some people seem to want it to fall more.

Why do you worry about a hard winter when your a wolf? See you at S&P 2800.

 

[tjones]

This thread is a classic example of the old saying “even a broke clock is right twice a day”


or something like that,,,

 

[SAJ-99]

Why do you worry about a hard winter when your a wolf? See you at S&P 2800.

I’m not worried. Just think a lot of people have pretty a screwed up perspective on what they want the future to look like.

As I have said multiple times, 2800 may be possible, but stuff will need to get much worse that what we see now.