WY Antelope Point Creep

[NEWHunter]

Well guys, we’re about a month out from the application deadline. I did a little bit of draw odds research and over the last three years, units in the special have crept up about 0.6 points/year. In the regular draw, units have crept up about 0.4 points/year. This is based on a “random sample” of about half a dozen units (one of which has been a max point unit) that all took points to draw in 2016. I’ll say the average is a half point/year.

So what do you think will happen this year?

Never posted a poll before - let’s hope this this worked. FWIW I think we’ll see points recede a half point.

 

[BlakeA]

My vote is definitely an increase and there will be more applications than ever before.

 

[406LIFE]

Creep will go up. Probably significantly. CO is already seeing increased apps.

 

[Walkathon]

I think there will be an increase in creep this year.

 

[Jape]

I think a lot of people hoped to see a decrease, or at least a hold, on point creep with the COVID-19 situation, but I think we are seeing the opposite. People have time to ponder on priorities and I think that will translate into point creep increasing. I think we are starting to see it in states like Colorado and I predict it will happen with the others (Wyoming, Nevada, Montana).

 

[TheGreek]

I’m going with increased point creep, deadline is June 1, I’m thinking life will be a lot closer to normal then than now and way more normal then April 7 when Colorado, which saw an increase in applications, was due. I’m also just pessimistic when making predictions.

 

[3855WIN]

One of the more affordable tags out there and can be easily done unguided. Creep.

 

[NEWHunter]

So you guys calling for an increase in creep, are you saying you would have voted “More than a Half Point Creep” if that were an option?

Edit to add: I’m operating on the assumption that based on the last three years, half a point increase is normal (given the aforementioned sample). I just don’t see how, with 30 million out of work now, 2021 raises and bonuses likely to be limited (if some even happen), and the possibility of potentially a second peak, that there would be more point creep this year than in the recent past.

Do I need to add another choice to the poll?

 

[Buffs35]

So you guys calling for an increase in creep, are you saying you would have voted “More than a Half Point Creep” if that were an option?

I'd say at least a half point creep.

If there is going to be a broad reduction in point creep, i think it will be the 2021 season if massive unemployment remains. For me, this thing was too new to deter my application strategy this year. Might change it next year, however.

 

[Shangobango]

I voted for at least a half point of creep.

I wonder at what point, if any, the market for points levels off? There are only so many hunters. Then there are only so many of those that want to hunt a certain State. Or am I thinking about this wrong?

 

[WapitiBob]

How many people are born in the US every year? Every year there's a new crop of hunters wanting to hunt out west, it isn't gonna level off.
Every year it's the same question; "will the odds be better because of (fill in the blank)? short answer, no.

 

[Bluffgruff]

... life will be a lot closer to normal then than now and way more normal then April 7...

Wrong

 

[Washington Hunter]

I voted no creep. Was debating between that and half point recession. I just can't imagine there not being a decrease in application numbers this year, with high unemployment and uncertainty about travel from other states being allowed or not.

 

[rtraverdavis]

Quotas are also reduced in a number of units, so I’d bet creep definitely still happens.

 

[Shangobango]

How many people are born in the US every year? Every year there's a new crop of hunters wanting to hunt out west, it isn't gonna level off.
Every year it's the same question; "will the odds be better because of (fill in the blank)? short answer, no.

I'm not saying that you are wrong but I have concerns about the amount of hunter recruitment in the future. From all the info that I have seen the percentage of the population that is hunting is in a steady decline.

I hope you are right though at least to a degree. I would be willing to sacrifice some opportunity in order to keep the clout that comes with numbers.

I just feel like 10 or 15 years from now things are going to look quite different as far as the hunting landscape across the country goes just based on population and recruitment trends. Not to mention economic and other factors that could come into play.

I guess we shall see.

 

[wayno945]

Thinking this year will see a slight decline. Unemployment numbers are way too high right now. Governors locking down states again in the fall is a possibility. Think alot of guys will be points only this year. Next year, if the economy rebounds, creep will be back in full force.

 

[Bigjay73]

I'm betting you see closer to a whole point this year. Hope I'm wrong, looking to burn 3 points this year, but I think its gonna be a rough year pp wise

 

[Alabama]

I voted no creep. Was debating between that and half point recession. I just can't imagine there not being a decrease in application numbers this year, with high unemployment and uncertainty about travel from other states being allowed or not.

I hope you're right about creep but I doubt it. There was a lot more panic and fear in late March/early April than there is now and CO saw an increase in apps. A good portion could have been for points only though. I believe it will be business as usual and most units will continue to creep.

 

[Big Fin]

For every thread that talks about point creep, in this case WY pronghorn, and draw odds not being what they were 15 years ago, a few charts quickly remind me of the realities I've observed in my 25 years of applying and hunting in multiple states. Two charts can llustrate why point creep will grow every year. I accept it as part of western hunting and adjust my apps accordingly. And, do what I can for conservation to try reverse the trends of the first chart, no matter what species for which a chart might be presented.

The chart below is Colorado mule deer, an opportunity I always thought would be in great abundance. When I made my first non-resident app, it was for Colorado mule deer in 1993. At that time, I could have never imagined this decline. The chart would be even worse decline for mule deer in Nevada, Utah, Arizona, and New Mexico. The further back the first measurement is made (within the last 50 years), the steeper the decline for all species other than elk and sheep (depending upon the state).

Simply put, we have seen long-term declines in many species across many states. The supply component of the equation for most species, in most western states, is shrinking. That is something hunters can influence, albeit requiring lots of work, money, and advocacy. With more competing priorities placed on game and fish agencies, hunters need to be even more involved.

The demand part of the equation is increasing and has been increasing for many years, especially amplified as more Rocky Mountain states have to go to limited entry tags for some/all species in order to protect the resource from the impacts of growing populations. Add the increased interest in western hunting, both as western states grow in population resulting in increased resident tag sales, along with the number of non-resident hunters applying in western states who are displaced from their local hunting opportunities, and it is not that hard to see how point creep has increased and will continue to increase.

The trends of human population dynamics are not something likely to change and not much that hunters can influence. The demand part of the equation illustrated in the chart below will continue to grow.


I don't have answers for point creep, but when I look at these two charts and charts of many other species that have seen significant long-term declines, the only thing I know to do is keep working at the conservation efforts needed to put more elk, deer, sheep, and in this case, more Wyoming antelope, out in wild places. It takes time, money, advocacy, and priority. But, it is the best way I know that hunters can help increase draw odds and reduce the impacts of point creep.

 

[Shangobango]

I noticed that chart of the Colorado mule deer population while reading the Colorado Strategy article on GoHunt and yet that is one part of the equation that I wasn't considering when thinking about point creep. I guess I was indeed thinking about it the wrong way.

I have only observed a handful of mule deer at this point in my life. That was several years ago when I visited Colorado for a couple of days and had time to drive from Denver into the mountains one afternoon before I caught my flight back home early the next morning. I have been intrigued by mule deer ever since. The decline in mule deer populations disturbs me.