Broad strokes.
2008-2016 -> Market rewarded growth of OG at all costs, returns didn't matter as much as increased production
2016 - Down turn over 100 OG company Bankruptcies
2017-2020-> Investment came back OPEC + Russia were losing massive amounts of money as US production soared. Glut of commodity on market.
2020- Black Swan event, because of covid market collapsed + OPEC/Russia drove price down artificially by dumping oil,
massive number of bankruptcies
2021- Demand increased, US production was way down therefore price has dramatically increased, OPEC + Russia haven't increased production as they are
realizing huge profits
Huge moves by activist investors, ESG has become a buzz word, market is demanding dividends not growth. Publics aren't adding rigs as one would expect with $80+ oil.
Increase in rig count is primarily coming from privates, but even privates are switching to dividend models and aren't adding many rigs. Investment in PE is tepid,
IPOs like Vine were weak despite commodity pricing, which was not a good signal to investors.
We would be in a similar place with any president. There are some levers the president can pull but it's capitalism not a state owned industry and it's an international market. We would be at a similar price point with a president of either party. Analysts were predicting current commodity prices when oil went negative in April 2020.
It's a volatile industry, but I think the big players will do their best to keep us averaging in the $70-90 range. Too high and money returns and supply increases or people start using less.
View attachment 200410
"U.S. energy firms this week cut oil and natural gas rigs for the first time in seven weeks even as oil prices rose to fresh seven year highs"
U.S. energy firms this week cut oil and natural gas rigs for the first time in seven weeks even as oil prices rose to fresh seven year highs.
www.reuters.com
Dropping crude prices and a worsening pandemic have led to a growing wave of energy bankruptcies. Here’s what that fallout looks like.
www.visualcapitalist.com