All good comments. So far it looks like about 90% of you would be ok with limiting NR to 20% or less of the tags available.
Currently NR take home 40% of the sheep each year in Alaska... Some areas average over 60%, and one area has been hovering around 80%!!! This is mostly due to the unrestricted number of guides who can hunt a remote area. Reducing the NRs to 10% of historic numbers of all sheep hunters (currently NRs make up about 20-21%) will reduce their take to 25%. Most residents I've talked with think this is fair, I would agree. They will always have a higher harvest rate because they're guided.
Some areas of the state are managed by the Feds, such as ANWR and Wrangle, St. Elias NWR. These areas limit the number of guides who can hunt in the refuge through a concession program, and by de facto, limit the number of sheep harvested. They may have a limit on the number of clients they can guide as well, I haven't dug that up yet. The average take by NR in these areas is about 20-25% of the total, while NR hunters account for about 10% of all hunters in those areas.
There are many issues involved besides NR opportunity. Guides make agreements with air transporters to restrict residents from being dropped in certain drainages (see Chugache and Wrangell hunts), thus reducing areas available to hunt, while giving the NRs a near "private" hunting area. Some guides will shoot as many $heep as they can per year with no regard to herd health... This is the biggest one that sticks with me. Through my research so far, I've discovered areas where outfitting pressure/harvest has nearly doubled in the last 10 years, and age structure of rams killed has decreased by as much as one year of age over the last 10 yeras. The take of sub 8yo rams has increased form 3-4% pre-2000 to over 20% today. Sub 8yo rams are dubbed by the F&G as immature... thus are not the animals which should be targeted for hunting. Yet as the herd shrinks they are scrutinized for legality and ultimately taken.
I don't intend for this to be a NR bashing rant. Alaska is more than generous with permits for NR, as basically all animals can be hunted with OTC permits. Most animals are abundant, with ample excess to share. Besides brown bears, all other species taken by NR's harvest account for decent proportion of harvest for other animals each year, with harvest totals remaining fairly stable for the last few decades.
2010 NR harvest percentage of all animals killed.
Moose 11%
Sheep 43%
Goat 27%
Blown bear 58%
Black bear 37%
Caribou 14%
Besides sheep, the animal populations above are stable or increasing across much of their range, which coincidently correlates to MANAGEMENT.
On average 500 NRs come to hunt sheep each year, and take home 350 rams. This is more sheep than are killed in the L48 combined Res and NR. Yes, we have a lot more sheep, but the herds are not as big as they used to be, and the amount of sheep available to hunt (outside National Parks) is about half the total population in the state. Most populations are at 50% of historic averages (pre 2000).
Sheep hunting regulations in AK are set up to allow maximum hunting opportunity while regulating the animals killed to older mature animals near the end of their life span. Hence the full curl or 8 year old rule. Once a ram reaches this age, he is more likely to die, either from fighting, predators, or diseases This approach to management equates to no management or hands off management, the F&G has even admitted this. The money spent to manage sheep each year is pitiful. Some areas haven't had a sheep count in decades (yes decades, multiple). I would venture that the MT governors permit sold for more than is spent on sheep research and management in Alaska each year. This again is another issue all together, unrelated to NR harvest.
Resident preference has been taking a back seat to a small portion of a large industry in this state. Research and references indicate that guided sheep hunters accounts for about $8.5M per year impact to the state. Considering the GDP of Alaska is $44.6B, this drop doesn't even register in the bucket (about 2% of 1%). While the sheep reallocation may not happen this year, it WILL happen, you can count on it. A growing number of residents are fed up with the system as it currently stands; as witness to the increasing number of proposals sent into the BOG each year to limit NR participation for sheep hunting.
The ramifications? More sheep will be left on the mountain, less competition (for everyone), less crowding, older sheep, fewer airplanes circling the sky, and a more robust population. Some guides/outfitters may go out of business, but I doubt it. They'll just sell fewer sheep at a higher price, and take a few more moose hunters.
Yep, sheep hunts will get more expensive for NRs, that's likely a given, but you can still go with the right amount of cash. Step two... piss off enough NR with time and money to lobby the legislature and eliminate the guide preference altogether. Or force the state to resurrect the the guide concession program to limit the amount of guiding pressure in certain areas. For now, the easiest way is to regulate the guides by the number of permits they can pimp.
I know I'm going to have a target painted on my back in the near future... but that's ok.
They been doing that for decades. Don't mean you have to give them everything they ask for
