One and Done States/Species?

2rocky

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Jul 23, 2010
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The Statistics thread got me thinking....

I'm in a 5 year waiting period on Elk in Utah since I tagged out on an LE hunt. A hunt I drew with .55% odds where the 100% draw point level is 24 points. I'll be 53 before I can put in for LE elk again in that state. Absent Point creep, I could be 77 before I draw another tag for LE elk in that unit.

It makes me wonder if I should take my money and run.

I'd love to hear the pro's and con's for holding out for lightning striking twice. I have already abandoned Shiras moose points in Wyoming, and I'm reluctant to even start to build points in Washington State because of such long NR odds. Even AZ is marginal value since my point accumulation started late...

Discuss among yourselves

ill-give-you-rxc3dm.jpg
 
Statistically applying for LE utah won’t make sense. So the question becomes about money. Are you applying for other species in utah? If so the elk app is pretty small additional money. If not, then the question becomes one of opportunity cost. What else are you going to do with that money and how bad do you want a lottery chance draw for the cost? If money is no object then why wouldn’t we all apply for everything we want to go hunt no matter what? You beat the odds once. You probably won’t again but you definitely won’t if you don’t apply
 
If you are not applying/or have points for other species than I wouldn't apply there anymore. If you do for other species than I would. LE Elk only, no. I would not continue.
 
I have had some lucky to get tags the last few years and since i started hunting full time i have learned that i typically draw a VERY LOW odds tag about every other year. I only get those tags by applying and one day i will change the approach to what tags i want but while i physically can i ask for everything interesting and they take my $ so it works. I am currently on 1 waiting period and coming off another so i have stagered my hits apperently good enough to keep me entertained, only 1 true OIL tag so far. Hopefully this is the year i finally draw that wyoming mt goat tag i have been waiting for. I always suggest to keep chasing any hunt you have interest, money and abilty to enjoy!
 
Non-residents face having to claw tags out of the limited-size bucket that is not even big enough to meet resident demand. F&G and legislatures in other states know it is easier to take a dump on a non-resident than raise the resident license cost even $1. Residents vote there. You don't. Track resident license cost vs inflation for the last 20 years. Do the same for non-resident license costs. Well, lookie there.

You do not have to be a PhD to read the writing on the wall. If you think the ratio of costs to get a non-resident tag (might be 3 years for 100% chance at WY NR Pronghorn to 50 years for 50% chance at CO Moose) to your desire to hunt that critter is acceptable, then go for it. Just be aware that for tags that take years to have a 50/50 chance or better, the cost today is way less than the cost a decade from now and the odds you presume will be steady years into the future are likely to be cut in half (see recent changes in WY, NM, AZ). The writing on the wall says you will draw fewer tags as a non-resident than you think and will pay more than you think. Just don't look silly complaining how you got treated as a non-resident was not fair. It never was. You just got embarrassed when you paid in for years presuming you mattered and did not understand the game playing you.
 
I’d walk if I were you. Heck I may even walk myself after burning my 26 deer points there, despite having 14 for most other species. All those with 14 will only get single digit or less draw odds for good units.
 
I’d walk if I were you. Heck I may even walk myself after burning my 26 deer points there, despite having 14 for most other species. All those with 14 will only get single digit or less draw odds for good units.
You can have choice bowhunts with 14 points for deer and antelope. Just don’t pick the advertised units.
 
Utah is dirt cheap, 2 years of Elk apps from 1 license. Same for AZ but a little more money; 2 licenses over 3 years if you do Elk/Deer.
 
Western hunting as pitched by the outdoor marketing machine is over.

Like the 1849 gold rush is over.





The only way to have any control over the when, and where is through LO vouchers, and other opportunities that you simply buy.
 
With me being 60 in feb I have stopped much of my applying for very low chance tags Goat ,Moose ,Sheep and paying for a guided hunt like goat in BC due to allocated tags yes it cost some $ but to me its worth it due to time
If I was still 35 or 40 would still be building points
 
Look at the trends. Compare today to the program inception.
More applicants applying for fewer tags. Tag prices and cost of living both rising. I do not build points. I will never get to hunt some of my dream hunts but, I get to plan MY hunt every year with OTC tags. I take the kids and grandkids, they don’t have points either.
I enjoy the stories and photos from those who fought the odds and got drawn, most of those stories are epic! I am glad others do it, no bashing here. I like to keep the odds in my favor and give chance as little opportunity to £*#% with me as I can.
 
You can have choice bowhunts with 14 points for deer and antelope. Just don’t pick the advertised units.
My research has not indicated that in UT. The only option I saw was late muzzleloader hunts. Still I'm tempted to burn them. I've encouraged my 80 year old father to do that.

But given my random luck, I still kinda hold out a chance that I might draw a marquee, or blue chip tier hunt some year....
 
I am pretty much in the same boat on Utah! Drew an LE archery elk tag 4 years ago. Still been applying for everything else but draw odds are getting more dismal every year. Have 14 or more points for everything but antelope, but it's getting you less than 5 percent draw odds on random draw archery units with a preference point tag now where in the near future. Probably will keep donating but it's something I mull over every fall.
 
I am pretty much in the same boat on Utah! Drew an LE archery elk tag 4 years ago. Still been applying for everything else but draw odds are getting more dismal every year. Have 14 or more points for everything but antelope, but it's getting you less than 5 percent draw odds on random draw archery units with a preference point tag now where in the near future. Probably will keep donating but it's something I mull over every fall.
Real quick, this isn't super related but with not being able to hunt LE, I'm considering just focusing on spikes this year. However, I am somewhat new to Utah (moved here from Montana), so I am still not sure about all the regulations. If I have a general spike/archery tag, and I'm hunting in a LE elk unit, is it legal to take a cow in archery season?
 
I think I recall reading this is ok. You woul want to verify with The proclamation which just came out and it says the answer
Real quick, this isn't super related but with not being able to hunt LE, I'm considering just focusing on spikes this year. However, I am somewhat new to Utah (moved here from Montana), so I am still not sure about all the regulations. If I have a general spike/archery tag, and I'm hunting in a LE elk unit, is it legal to take a cow in archery season?
 
I have decided, for myself, to not participate in building points or putting in for limited entry hunts any longer. Just a personal decision. I can see putting in for general tags in a few states. But not going to play their game any longer. Feels pretty good…kind of like leaving your cellphone at home.
I hope you start a following
 
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