Nov 3 - Independents’ Day?

[WanderWoman]

This is interesting to see; hoping I have a chance to give it a listen.

 

[Sytes]

I obviously have no skin in this game, but I'm hopeful for Montana because chamge has to start somewhere. 85% of the time @Straight Arrow or @406dn Are pretty far apart politically and we still equally support this candidate is telling how shitty are choices have been with a two party system.

I feel we all have skin in this game. The position is for US Senate, representing Montana primarily with the key pivotal opportunity many *should catch onto regarding reshaping US politics. It holds the potential to change the dynamics of our boss party garbage, as Theodore Roosevelt stumped for his Bull Moose Party.

The same as people here who complain(ed) about Mike Lee (Public land) or Dianne Feinstein (2A). They hold/held the power within their red / blue caucus. We gain just a few true Independents, the Red and Blue have to adapt to gain passage of US shaping laws.

That is skin in the US game.

 

[elkduds]

Devil's advocacy: We've seen the disproportionate power in the Senate before. Independents have recognized their tiebreaking power and abused the process to benefit themselves and/or their donors, constituents.


If there were 2 or more of them, they could do so together to magnify their leverage. 47 is not the first or last Master of the Deal inside the Beltway. Regular Capitol chess becomes 3-D chess. If this sounds like cynicism,

 

[406dn]

Devil's advocacy: We've seen the disproportionate power in the Senate before. Independents have recognized their tiebreaking power and abused the process to benefit themselves and/or their donors, constituents.
View attachment 420236

If there were 2 or more of them, they could do so together. 47 is not the first or last Master of the Deal inside the Beltway. Regular Capitol chess becomes 3-D chess. If this sounds like cynicism,
View attachment 420237

This, it really...depends. We all view politicians with a jaundiced eye. We all would like to have a politician motivated by a real duty to public service.

I think there are some, not confined to only one party. Unfortunately, a declaration of not belonging to a party, it is not a guarantee of, well, anything.

Any power they might have depends on how evenly split the Congress is. If there is a sizable majority for either party, their power disappears. In the Senate, they retain small level. In the House, they would be irrelevant.

 

[Sytes]

The challenge faced with a third party is getting feet in the door. The more we hold back from the red and blue, the more red and blue listen, IMO. The more Independents, the more strength the collective becomes. The fear red and blue fight side by side to oppose... though IF we broke into the scene... little by little...

A buddy shared this today, hence my perked interest to add to this thread.

Very fitting, considering the entirety of our discussion for Independents and the value. "One small step for man, one giant leap for mankind"

 

[Elky Welky]

The challenge faced with a third party is getting feet in the door. The more we hold back from the red and blue, the more red and blue listen, IMO. The more Independents, the more strength the collective becomes. The fear red and blue fight side by side to oppose... though IF we broke into the scene... little by little...

At this juncture I'm getting a stronger and stronger feeling that Allme is going to win. The mudslinging from Bankhead supporters has reached a fever pitch. Gotta hand it to them, they are going down with the ship.

The question I am interested in seeing on Tuesday is just how close Bodnar and Bankhead are. I predict Allme will get over 50% of the vote, and I give Austin 5%. If Bodnar gets 30% and Bankhead only 15%, then I see a strong future for Independents in Montana. If they are split closer to 22.5% each, then I foresee the Democrats continuing to dig their heels in on "principle" and cede leadership to the Republican party in MT for a long time to come.

 

[jimh406]

If Bodnar gets 30% and Bankhead only 15%, then I see a strong future for Independents in Montana.

If Bodnar runs again (probably for Governor), I think he'll run as a Democrat. 45% is way better than 30%.

 

[Southern Elk]

 

[SAJ-99]

At this juncture I'm getting a stronger and stronger feeling that Allme is going to win. The mudslinging from Bankhead supporters has reached a fever pitch. Gotta hand it to them, they are going down with the ship.

The question I am interested in seeing on Tuesday is just how close Bodnar and Bankhead are. I predict Allme will get over 50% of the vote, and I give Austin 5%. If Bodnar gets 30% and Bankhead only 15%, then I see a strong future for Independents in Montana. If they are split closer to 22.5% each, then I foresee the Democrats continuing to dig their heels in on "principle" and cede leadership to the Republican party in MT for a long time to come.

That would be pretty close to the estimate of party breakdown in primary. Although Alme getting 50% of the vote would mean that Independents went to the Republican (so "ceding" leadership is odd way to phrase it). It will be easy to blame Democrats, but the reality is that the state party is not a single group and very fractured, as seen by the state party leader resigning a couple of weeks ago. There are plenty of people involved in politics that see the side they choose as the primary thing to defend. Loyalty above principles. It happens everywhere.

I hope Bodnar shocks us all. But my view is that most voters are sheep and are comfortable being sheep, even if they never admit to being sheep at all.

MT Voter Data: Registration by Party, Turnout & Primary Rules

Montana voter registration data: registered Democrats vs Republicans, independent voter count, primary election type, and voter turnout statistics. Updated 2026.

independentvoterproject.org

 

[jimh406]

But my view is that most voters are sheep and are comfortable being sheep, even if they never admit to being sheep at all.

Sheep are still sheep even if they join a new flock to pretend they aren’t.

 

[Elky Welky]

It will be easy to blame Democrats, but the reality is that the state party is not a single group and very fractured, as seen by the state party leader resigning a couple of weeks ago.

That is actually the exact point I was making, if Bodnar and Bankhead are close it goes to show just how fractured the democratic party is, and shows that there is no hope for them unifying under a bigger tent: hence ceding leadership because of their very evident failure to come together and many future years of infighting.

 

[SAJ-99]

That is actually the exact point I was making, if Bodnar and Bankhead are close it goes to show just how fractured the democratic party is, and shows that there is no hope for them unifying under a bigger tent: hence ceding leadership because of their very evident failure to come together and many future years of infighting.

Bodnar choosing to run as an Independent might have sealed his fate. He could have run as a D, won the primary and unified the vote (but probably still lost- we will know in a week). That was his decision, not the party's. This is the risk you take running as an Independent. It only takes one candidate to run under D or R to siphon off your votes, because sheep are sheep.

 

[noharleyyet]

Sheep talk not going away...we ratify the shepherds that are chosen for us.