National Petroleum Reserve

[AvidIndoorsman]

Probably a good thing that production has been on the increase the last few years since SB-21 was passed. Which incouraged companies to rework older wells. As new technology allows for better extraction technologies.
The petroleum industry plays a big part in Alaskas economy. And Dunlevy is correct when stating that continually changing the tax structure increases risk in development.
There is 30% more wildlife in the arctic now than before oil n gas development. With private industry providing a lot of valuable information with our government biologists.
Yes congress approved funding to go clean up the abandoned wells that were drilled by our federal government.
The local native corporation are some of the richest in the world.
The permanent fund dividend was mentioned. Politicians have tried to take this fund for a long time. A fund that could put 3 billion dollars cash into the local economies. And our university think tank says what have the highest economic value to our state. Many claiming that if the government doesn't have access to spend it the state will go broke. We just have to have more money for more government. Well the fact is the people have continued to so no. And the state government hasn't disintegrated. And the legislature could put the 3 billion in the budget Dunlevy requested. Like the 82% of the public asked them to do.
Anyhows, for me , having the most reliable energy available done in an invironment friendly way is best. A good job is important in life. Our daughter is up there now. 60 below windchill.
I've watched our state grow for many years. I'm an avid outdoors person. Mostly just a guy raising my family n trying to enjoy life. My consensus is that less government is best. I don't need to be saved from myself anymore. I don't mind dirt roads. And know it snows in AK.
And I'll be just fine

You have 2 investment options:

1. Spend $1000 and in 10 years you get $1500

2. Spend $1000 and get $2000 in 6 months.

Which do you pick?

 

[Akcabin]

You have 2 investment options:

1. Spend $1000 and in 10 years you get $1500

2. Spend $1000 and get $2000 in 6 months.

Which do you pick?

I guess that would depend on the payout, lifetime might be good option

 

[Akcabin]

2020 and 2021 Crude oil production in Alaska was 1/4 of the state’s peak production of more than 2 million b/d in 1988..
the lowest production since 1970s when the pipeline was ramping up.
Alaska's oil production now makes up only 4% of all oil production in the United States.

The oil industry is the largest contributor to Alaska’s economy despite the >75% decline in production.
Oil revenues supplied more than two-thirds of the state's budget in 2020.

Another big "industry" in Alaska is funding from the federal government.
For example, Alaska gets the most funding per capita among all states in the recent infrastructure bill....
$6,700 in funding per capita...distant second is Wyoming at $4,479.
Alaska will get over $5 billion in funding from the infrastructure bill.

Alaska is the number 1 state in Federal Grants Received per Federal Taxes Paid.

Yeppers, but what's your point.

 

[AvidIndoorsman]

I guess that would depend on the payout, lifetime might be good option

… god dammit no

One or two the pay out is exactly what I said.

 

[AvidIndoorsman]

@Akcabin I'll cut to the chase with you, the obvious answer is 2.

Therefore my response, yes so you would pick the best investment.

Which is what OG companies... like anyone, are going to do.

Therefore anyone's opinions on drilling in AK are kinda irrelevant, unless you are voting to make things more economic ie reducing taxes or voting or through other forms of activism making things less economic, ie petitioning the fed or the state to shut down drilling. The later activities don't really 'stop' drilling, but they mean that you are going to need to hire lawyers and/or lobbyist and that costs money that you could be putting into the drill bit.

 

[BigHornRam]

@Akcabin I'll cut to the chase with you, the obvious answer is 2.

Therefore my response, yes so you would pick the best investment.

Which is what OG companies... like anyone, are going to do.

Therefore anyone's opinions on drilling in AK are kinda irrelevant, unless you are voting to make things more economic ie reducing taxes or voting or through other forms of activism making things less economic, ie petitioning the fed or the state to shut down drilling. The later activities don't really 'stop' drilling, but they mean that you are going to need to hire lawyers and/or lobbyist and that costs money that you could be putting into the drill bit.

Big OG companies seem to be playing both sides right now, wllm.

Big Oil Is Quietly Exploring For More Crude | OilPrice.com

With or without the IEA’s roadmap to net zero, this year could see an uptick in new drilling, especially given the strength of oil demand after the pandemic

oilprice.com

Big Oil—and small and medium oil, too—is doing what any business would do in the current environment. Said environment suggests that the demand for Big Oil’s products is strong. Naturally, they would try to respond to that strong demand by producing as much as they can to satisfy it. But they won’t talk about it as openly as they used to before. Instead, they would highlight their investments in wind, solar, and EVs while quietly drilling to ensure there will be enough oil for tomorrow and the day after.

 

[AvidIndoorsman]

Big OG companies seem to be playing both sides right now, wllm.

Big Oil Is Quietly Exploring For More Crude | OilPrice.com

With or without the IEA’s roadmap to net zero, this year could see an uptick in new drilling, especially given the strength of oil demand after the pandemic

oilprice.com

Big Oil—and small and medium oil, too—is doing what any business would do in the current environment. Said environment suggests that the demand for Big Oil’s products is strong. Naturally, they would try to respond to that strong demand by producing as much as they can to satisfy it. But they won’t talk about it as openly as they used to before. Instead, they would highlight their investments in wind, solar, and EVs while quietly drilling to ensure there will be enough oil for tomorrow and the day after.

Guyana and Nambia…

Sure EOG is in China, companies are experimenting with third world plays, or formations that haven’t been tried in developed plays, Frontier in the powder for instances or XTOs far south Ardmore prospect.
Alaska was “known” in the 80s, the top secret KIC-1 wells (ANWR) we’re drilled in 85. I guess sure, new step out areas… exploration.

But the economics don’t change. For the record the north slope wells are big and awesome. They aren’t crappy wells, if you get rid of all the taxes/weather/seasonal drilling/ fed restrictions/ insane transport costs/material costs/lobby costs/litigation people would still be drilling like crazy.

My argument since my first post about AK is that; There is a lot of oil in AK with very productive wells, with good decline curves, but there are just too many added costs to compete with other basins.

Further problem is scale… if x company brings on 75k-100k barrels a day in AK that’s a huge amount of oil, that’s ~ a $3B company worth of production.

But peak was 2 million barrels… that was 34 years ago… I don’t care what you do neither AK oil or the 8 tract is coming back.

I’d love to move to AK, so I will be stoked be to proven wrong.

 

[BigHornRam]

My point is, "big oil" has been investing heavily in alternative energy projects with little actual results other than questionable PR. Sure it's easy to ignore the reason you are in business in the first place when oil is at $40 a barrel. When it gets to $120 a barrel, it becomes impossible to ignore.



"Oil demand, regardless of various forecasts, looks like it still has a few good decades in it. The costs of new wind and solar installations are rising, the supply of critical minerals and metals is limited, and new mine lead times are even longer than the lead times for offshore oil wells. This doesn’t bode well for the renewable revolution, but it does bode well for oil and gas demand."

 

[Buffs35]

My point is, "big oil" has been investing heavily in alternative energy projects with little actual results other than questionable PR. Sure it's easy to ignore the reason you are in business in the first place when oil is at $40 a barrel. When it gets to $120 a barrel, it becomes impossible to ignore.



"Oil demand, regardless of various forecasts, looks like it still has a few good decades in it. The costs of new wind and solar installations are rising, the supply of critical minerals and metals is limited, and new mine lead times are even longer than the lead times for offshore oil wells. This doesn’t bode well for the renewable revolution, but it does bode well for oil and gas demand."

It's not just oil companies that have been investing in alternative energy projects with little actual results.

 

[BigHornRam]

It's not just oil companies that have been investing in alternative energy projects with little actual results.

True.

Germany Has a Math Problem, and It’s about to Get Worse

What the numbers say about the energy landscape In this traditional state of Bavaria where election banners offering defense of “Heimat” (Homeland) seized the day in the last election, the …

www.aicgs.org

Big mess in Europe.

Energy crisis: How countries are dealing with rising prices

From cash handouts to price caps, other countries are using a variety of measures to combat soaring gas prices.

www.bbc.com

 

[Irrelevant]

@BigHornRam I hate to break it to you, but @wllm1313 is the clear expert in O&G around here. You can copy and paste link after link after link, but you'll never have the insight of someone who's job it is to do the kind of analysis you keep trying to link. It just comes across as being contrary just to be contrary.

Aren't you in the wood industry? I mean he's not going around telling you that you don't know a lodgepole from a pondo. Just give it a break man.

 

[Deleted member 18333]

@BigHornRam I hate to break it to you, but @wllm1313 is the clear expert in O&G around here. You can copy and paste link after link after link, but you'll never have the insight of someone who's job it is to do the kind of analysis you keep trying to link. It just comes across as being contrary just to be contrary.

Aren't you in the wood industry? I mean he's not going around telling you that you don't know a lodgepole from a pondo. Just give it a break man.

I love a contrary opinion particularly when its contrary to the expert opinion. It's what keeps conversation moving and thoughts evolving. I say keep it up @BigHornRam.

IMO silencing of contrary opinions is a problem in our current society.

 

[noharleyyet]

We sorely need JoseElkgunnerHisRoyalHighness back...dude could make you agree with him then he'd argue the other side.

 

[BigHornRam]

@BigHornRam I hate to break it to you, but @wllm1313 is the clear expert in O&G around here. You can copy and paste link after link after link, but you'll never have the insight of someone who's job it is to do the kind of analysis you keep trying to link. It just comes across as being contrary just to be contrary.

Aren't you in the wood industry? I mean he's not going around telling you that you don't know a lodgepole from a pondo. Just give it a break man.

I am very invested in oil and gas right now and have done considerable reading and research on it. Wllm is a very bright young man and that's why I engage with him.

 

[Irrelevant]

I love a contrary opinion particularly when its contrary to the expert opinion. It's what keeps conversation moving and thoughts evolving. I say keep it up @BigHornRam.

IMO silencing of contrary opinions is a problem in our current society.

I guess that came across wrong. I don't dislike debate. But one could argue that alternative facts and conspiracy theories are also the problem with our society. I'm not necessarily saying those are the links BH is posting, but they do seem to trend toward a small contrarian ideology that isn't reflected in real world actions.

I am very invested in oil and gas right now and have done considerable reading and research on it. Wllm is a very bright young man and that's why I engage with him.

If I was highly invested in something I would do less talking and more listening to experts. But have at it...

 

[BigHornRam]

I've never listened to a Joe Rogan podcast before, but I'm strangely starting to understand how he feels right now. Carry on @neffa3

 

[Bambistew]

Another big "industry" in Alaska is funding from the federal government.
For example, Alaska gets the most funding per capita among all states in the recent infrastructure bill....
$6,700 in funding per capita...distant second is Wyoming at $4,479.
Alaska will get over $5 billion in funding from the infrastructure bill.

Alaska is the number 1 state in Federal Grants Received per Federal Taxes Paid.

I think its awesome that we have good representation in DC that can pull strings and have the pull to get money into the state. Some/most of that money is just pork to keep the state solvent.

Its not quite that black and white when it comes to federal dollars spent.

• Alaska has 1/3 of all federal land in the US ~220M acres (2/3 of the state), next closest is NV at ~60M - huge piece of federal funding to maintain all that. Want a playground, and oppose development, pay for it.
• When AK became a state, the only reason it was accepted was because of the possibility of it being sustainable via natural resources, and with the hope that once they ran out that it could remain sustainable. Without oil, Alaska would still be a territory.
• We are just a colony of the Lessor 48, between oil and fishing, its primarily controlled, and owned by companies and appointed boards from the L48. They should pay up, and I don't feel bad about it.
• Unless you live in an incorporated city, you pay nearly zero in state/local taxes for services. Those water treatment plants, power plants, ports, schools, roads and airports don't pay for themselves. The majority of the state pays little to nothing for the services they use/receive. Most small villages have way nicer schools than any L48 small town courtesy of the federal government.
• Something like 20% of the villages in AK still don't have safe drinking water, a big chunk of funds goes to developing and maintaining those basic services.
• Healthcare spending accounts for about 1/4 of the federal funds received by the state.
• Alaska has the largest native American population per capita in the US ~20% - huge piece of federal funding goes to maintain all those services required/provided.
• We also have the highest number of federal workers on the payroll of any state/per capita (by 1.5-2x the average) at ~25% of the total workforce.

it all adds up, and I cry myself to sleep when I cash my huge $1200 pfd check, then get up and drive on the worst roads in the nation to drop my kids to the worst school system in the nation...

 

[AlaskaHunter]

I think its awesome that we have good representation in DC that can pull strings and have the pull to get money into the state. Some/most of that money is just pork to keep the state solvent.

Its not quite that black and white when it comes to federal dollars spent.

• Alaska has 1/3 of all federal land in the US ~220M acres (2/3 of the state), next closest is NV at ~60M - huge piece of federal funding to maintain all that. Want a playground, and oppose development, pay for it.
• When AK became a state, the only reason it was accepted was because of the possibility of it being sustainable via natural resources, and with the hope that once they ran out that it could remain sustainable. Without oil, Alaska would still be a territory.
• We are just a colony of the Lessor 48, between oil and fishing, its primarily controlled, and owned by companies and appointed boards from the L48. They should pay up, and I don't feel bad about it.
• Unless you live in an incorporated city, you pay nearly zero in state/local taxes for services. Those water treatment plants, power plants, ports, schools, roads and airports don't pay for themselves. The majority of the state pays little to nothing for the services they use/receive. Most small villages have way nicer schools than any L48 small town courtesy of the federal government.
• Something like 20% of the villages in AK still don't have safe drinking water, a big chunk of funds goes to developing and maintaining those basic services.
• Healthcare spending accounts for about 1/4 of the federal funds received by the state.
• Alaska has the largest native American population per capita in the US ~20% - huge piece of federal funding goes to maintain all those services required/provided.
• We also have the highest number of federal workers on the payroll of any state/per capita (by 1.5-2x the average) at ~25% of the total workforce.

it all adds up, and I cry myself to sleep when I cash my huge $1200 pfd check, then get up and drive on the worst roads in the nation to drop my kids to the worst school system in the nation...

Yes. And with Murkowski a key player in writing the Infrastructure Bill, Alaska got more federal funding:
Alaska will get over $5 billion in funds including much to non-native projects:
$3.5 billion in federal Highway funding for Alaska over five years.
$1 billion in Army Corp projects,
$1 billion for a new program that establishes an "essential" ferry service
$225 million to address highway bridges
$80 million for airport capital improvements in the first year of the five-year infrastructure program
$75 million for the Denali Commission
and the list goes on...

 

[AvidIndoorsman]

@BigHornRam I hate to break it to you, but @wllm1313 is the clear expert in O&G around here. You can copy and paste link after link after link, but you'll never have the insight of someone who's job it is to do the kind of analysis you keep trying to link. It just comes across as being contrary just to be contrary.

Aren't you in the wood industry? I mean he's not going around telling you that you don't know a lodgepole from a pondo. Just give it a break man.

I read this and was like "yeah suck it big horn"...

but then was like...
1. umm yeah you sure think you're an "expert" wllm... maybe a expert at being a blowhard
2. Dude, bro (yes I'm spicoli in my inner monologue) you live for a good argument, basically @BigHornRam and let's be honest @neffa3s (arguing with my wife about sunscreen SMH) mere existence gives your weds mornings meaning and purpose.

So if I'm being honest, love the dialogue and being challenged, I get bored reading OG analysis all the time and it's fun getting all fired up by folks and then diving into do research on various things.

 

[Irrelevant]

@neffa3s (arguing with my wife about sunscreen SMH)

I didn't order any of that fancy shit, but am packing 3 freefly sun shirts to Kauai next week.

That topic is also a good example of why it's best to do a bit more research before spouting off online. I'd heard one Radiolab podcast that concluded that not wearing sunscreen, as long as you're not in the high risk pool, and as long as you're not getting "burned" isn't any more harmful. It stuck with me because I've always felt better not wearing it. But after your comment I actually tried to back that up with some papers and it turns out there is very little evidence, as long as you pick an FDA approved product, to refute the claim that wearing sunscreen is healthier.