National Petroleum Reserve

[SAJ-99]

Yeah totally. I guess I mean that more as a "but WHYYYYY"

Next R president is going to open it up, the next D will then close it... it will be a football.
Murkowski we keep trying to prop up the industry at all costs.

I predict Conoco will keep drilling there, esp if there 2021 projects yield good returns. I don't think their activity will keep the states production from declining.

I'm a little bear-ish on the running room of US shale.

In 20 years, assuming we are still at the same rate of oil consumption I could see exploration happening... BUT, I think oil will, in the near future, decline and gas will increase, and if that happens AK has no chance.

I don't really see any scenario in the near term where Alaska oil has a chance... Texas gets nuked?

As @neffa3 point out, no reason to kill a good narrative if it helps collect $$$. Look back at the thread about Biden closing it down. The lease had already went through and the bids showed no one was all that interested. Did that stop oil cos from crying about it? no. Did that stop environmentalist from claiming victory on ANWR? No. It's a game. If you want to play, you have to not care about facts. They are inconvenient.

 

[AvidIndoorsman]

you have to not care about facts.

I refuse.

What's interesting is federal lease are long...10 years with a 2 year extension if you have started drilling.

Purple is more or less where Conoco is currently drilling.




Lot of leases expired and relinquished when oil prices were pretty good. Not a great signal that there is a bonanza waiting.

 

[Last Place]

Petroleum engineer here so take this with a grain of salt....

This is a bad idea with the only reasoning being to lower gas prices for reelection. Harsher regulations ESG was for continental US is driving up the price of oil - which is good, we should be environmentally responsible, but it costs money. Doing this is Alaska seems like an out of sight, out of mind and election minded move.

 

[AvidIndoorsman]

Petroleum engineer here so take this with a grain of salt....

This is a bad idea with the only reasoning being to lower gas prices for reelection. Harsher regulations ESG was for continental US is driving up the price of oil - which is good, we should be environmentally responsible, but it costs money. Doing this is Alaska seems like an out of sight, out of mind and election minded move.

Conoco just spent $8.6B in cash buying Shell out of the Permian, 255,000 net acres 200MBOED.

Conoco has allocated $1B for 2022 on their Willow Project (in the NPR), total Conoco has 1.3 Million Acres.

Seems to me Conoco has the acreage and the money to drill a lot more in AK if the economics were there... maybe it's because it will take 2-3 billion + 2 to 3 years to see oil in AK when in Texas the time from SPUD to a well fully paying out can be less than a year, occasionally as short as 6 months.

Point being if Biden did nothing I'm not sure anything different would have happened on the North Slope.

 

[BigHornRam]

Any thoughts on this announcement, @wllm1313 ? Hype?

Canadian Overseas Petroleum Ltd - COPL Confirms Significant Oil Discovery

Canadian Overseas Petroleum Confirms Significant Oil DiscoveryLONDON, UK and CALGARY, AB / ACCESSWIRE / January 10, 2022 / Canadian Overseas Petroleum Limited ("COPL" or the "Company") (CSE:XOP)(LSE:COPL), an international oil and gas exploration, production and development company with...

finance.yahoo.com

 

[AvidIndoorsman]

Any thoughts on this announcement, @wllm1313 ? Hype?

Canadian Overseas Petroleum Ltd - COPL Confirms Significant Oil Discovery

Canadian Overseas Petroleum Confirms Significant Oil DiscoveryLONDON, UK and CALGARY, AB / ACCESSWIRE / January 10, 2022 / Canadian Overseas Petroleum Limited ("COPL" or the "Company") (CSE:XOP)(LSE:COPL), an international oil and gas exploration, production and development company with...

finance.yahoo.com

Hype.

There are lots of areas that aren’t economically recoverable with huge reserve numbers.

“The Company estimates the Frontier discovery to be approximately 33,000 acres”

WOW the package you bought from Atomic, who got it from CHK, (who both went bankrupt) was 33k acres… what a coincidence!

 

[BigHornRam]

Hype.

There are lots of areas that aren’t economically recoverable with huge reserve numbers.

“The Company estimates the Frontier discovery to be approximately 33,000 acres”

WOW the package you bought from Atomic, who got it from CHK, (who both went bankrupt) was 33k acres… what a coincidence!

So the almost doubling of COPL stock since the first of the year is just a temporary bubble?

 

[AvidIndoorsman]

So the almost doubling of COPL stock since the first of the year is just a temporary bubble?

It’s a super confusing release, maybe intentional?

So the company in its release in Nov produced 1,000 Barrels per day TOTAL… then drilled a well that produced 120per day, and is now touting that it be able to have 3 wells per section that will average 2000.

Therefore if it drills 1 well it will double its production. Why haven’t they drilled one of those wells?

Why isn’t the release COPL drills 2,000 barrel per day Frontier well.

 

[AlaskaHunter]

Conoco just spent $8.6B in cash buying Shell out of the Permian, 255,000 net acres 200MBOED.

Conoco has allocated $1B for 2022 on their Willow Project (in the NPR), total Conoco has 1.3 Million Acres.

Seems to me Conoco has the acreage and the money to drill a lot more in AK if the economics were there... maybe it's because it will take 2-3 billion + 2 to 3 years to see oil in AK when in Texas the time from SPUD to a well fully paying out can be less than a year, occasionally as short as 6 months.

Point being if Biden did nothing I'm not sure anything different would have happened on the North Slope.

In 2018, British Petroleum acquired BHP’s U.S. shale assets, a $10.5 billion deal that made BP a major Texas shale producer.

A year later, British Petroleum pulled out of Alaska's North Slope, selling to HilCorp for $5.6 billion.

 

[AvidIndoorsman]

In 2018, British Petroleum acquired BHP’s U.S. shale assets, a $10.5 billion deal that made BP a major Texas shale producer.

A year later, British Petroleum pulled out of Alaska's North Slope, selling to HilCorp for $5.6 billion.

& Chevron

 

[BigHornRam]

It’s a super confusing release, maybe intentional?

So the company in its release in Nov produced 1,000 Barrels per day TOTAL… then drilled a well that produced 120per day, and is now touting that it be able to have 3 wells per section that will average 2000.

Therefore if it drills 1 well it will double its production. Why haven’t they drilled one of those wells?

Why isn’t the release COPL drills 2,000 barrel per day Frontier well.

The article where I read about this, this morning is no longer available, which makes me think it may be just a good old fashioned con job.

 

[SAJ-99]

It’s a super confusing release, maybe intentional?

So the company in its release in Nov produced 1,000 Barrels per day TOTAL… then drilled a well that produced 120per day, and is now touting that it be able to have 3 wells per section that will average 2000.

Therefore if it drills 1 well it will double its production. Why haven’t they drilled one of those wells?

Why isn’t the release COPL drills 2,000 barrel per day Frontier well.

I have a relative that was a geologist for one of the majors. Although he retired 20yrs ago, he still says all the oil in the world is pretty much known and that there are no “new” major discoveries. Only thing they discovered is new ways to extract it profitably.

 

[Gellar]

Not sure why it comes up on HT, but the issue never dies because Alaska is dependent on the O&G revenues. Same for WY.

I’m going to guess it keeps coming up because most of us have dreamed of hunting the wildest, wooliest places on earth and drilling in the arctic could affect that dream for many of us. It would no doubt still be remote, but it would lose some of its luster to me anyways.

 

[Freduccine]

The National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska (NPR-A)is located on the Arctic Coastal Plain, west of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge.
At 23,600,000 acres, the NPRA is the largest tract of undisturbed public land in the United States.
The Biden administration announced yesterday that it plans to use Alternative A – the “No Action Alternative” from the NPR-A’s 2020 Integrated Activity Plan (IAP) as its preferred alternative to manage the reserve. This would close approximately half of the surface acreage of the reserve, which is roughly the size of Indiana, to energy leasing. That reverts back to the 2013 Obama administration version, which could effect almost 50% of the NPR-A – that's over 11 million acres.
Good news or bad news? Depends on your perspective...
I found the timing before mid-term elections interesting, and in contrast to Biden's November release of a record 50 million barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

I'm all for keeping these lands closed to capitalists that want to exploit the land for their own benefit. reminds of teddy Roosevelt's quote about the defenders of the short sighted. Not optimistic though

 

[BWALKER77]

I'm all for keeping these lands closed to capitalists that want to exploit the land for their own benefit. reminds of teddy Roosevelt's quote about the defenders of the short sighted. Not optimistic though

Oh brother. You drive a car/truck?

 

[AlaskaHunter]

Some Corporations have voiced their lack of support of oil development in the arctic or the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge.
JP Morgan Chase and Co. “will not provide project financing or other forms of asset-specific financing” that supports oil and gas development in the Arctic, including in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge.
In 2020, SITKA Gear” was scolded by Gov. Mike Dunleavy for opposing Alaska’s economic underpinning of resource development.
Dunleavy has also called out some banks and financial institutions, such as Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan, for their refusal to invest in Alaska oil plays on the North Slope.
Bank of America also has a written statement that it will not finance oil and gas drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge.

 

[Buffs35]

Some Corporations have voiced their lack of support of oil development in the arctic or the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge.
JP Morgan Chase and Co. “will not provide project financing or other forms of asset-specific financing” that supports oil and gas development in the Arctic, including in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge.
In 2020, SITKA Gear” was scolded by Gov. Mike Dunleavy for opposing Alaska’s economic underpinning of resource development.
Dunleavy has also called out some banks and financial institutions, such as Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan, for their refusal to invest in Alaska oil plays on the North Slope.
Bank of America also has a written statement that it will not finance oil and gas drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge.

People say a lot of things if they think it'll help their stock price.

 

[BigHornRam]

Declining U.S. Petroleum Inventories Push Oil Prices Higher | OilPrice.com

U.S. commercial petroleum stocks are falling well below seasonal averages, and it could push oil prices higher

oilprice.com

Robust demand, insufficient investment in new supply, low inventories, and declining global spare production capacity have prompted major Wall Street banks – including Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, and Morgan Stanley – to forecast that oil prices could hit $100 per barrel as soon as this year.

 

[AvidIndoorsman]

Declining U.S. Petroleum Inventories Push Oil Prices Higher | OilPrice.com

U.S. commercial petroleum stocks are falling well below seasonal averages, and it could push oil prices higher

oilprice.com

Robust demand, insufficient investment in new supply, low inventories, and declining global spare production capacity have prompted major Wall Street banks – including Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, and Morgan Stanley – to forecast that oil prices could hit $100 per barrel as soon as this year.

2008

"Super-spike" could lift oil to $200: Goldman

Oil could shoot up to $200 within the next two years as part of a "super-spike" driven by poor growth in oil supplies, investment bank Goldman Sachs <GS.N> said in a research note.

www.reuters.com

2020

$190 oil sounds crazy. But JPMorgan thinks it's possible, even after the pandemic

In a little-noticed report, JPMorgan Chase warned in early March that the oil market could be on the cusp of a "supercycle" that sends Brent crude skyrocketing as high as $190 a barrel in 2025.

www.cnn.com

2018

$100 oil is back on the table as OPEC stays strong on tightening production limits

Only a week ago, news surfaced that Saudi officials were quietly hoping to push oil prices up to $80 per barrel, which would help boost the valuation of Saudi Aramco IPO. But why not $100 per barrel? Reuters reports that Riyadh would be fine with prices rising that far.

www.usatoday.com

 

[AvidIndoorsman]

Some Corporations have voiced their lack of support of oil development in the arctic or the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge.
JP Morgan Chase and Co. “will not provide project financing or other forms of asset-specific financing” that supports oil and gas development in the Arctic, including in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge.
In 2020, SITKA Gear” was scolded by Gov. Mike Dunleavy for opposing Alaska’s economic underpinning of resource development.
Dunleavy has also called out some banks and financial institutions, such as Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan, for their refusal to invest in Alaska oil plays on the North Slope.
Bank of America also has a written statement that it will not finance oil and gas drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge.

Has Dunleavy proposed a tax cut to incentivize drilling?